Archive - Dec 2012 - Blog entry
December 23rd
Notable Weekend Developments
Submitted by Marc To Market on 12/23/2012 18:16 -0500
Yes, it is the holiday season. Yes, you are unlikely to be taking action with your investments. Yes, the morphing of what is into what will be continues uninterrupted.
There were several developments over the weekend that will influence the direction of the the markets in the days ahead, with the usual caution about the impact of the thinness of conditions.
First, the major focus remains the US fiscal cliff. One of the most important ways in which the US fiscal crisis differs from those seen in Iceland, Greece, Portugal, Ireland is that it has not been triggered by a capital strike. Investors have not fled the US. Interest rates have not trended higher. It is not a fiscal crisis. It is a political crisis
Investor Sentiment: This is For Certain
Submitted by thetechnicaltake on 12/23/2012 18:06 -0500I am not sure what to make of this tidbit of information, but it does point out how silly and fickle investors have become.
The Real Reasons the Fed Announced QE 4
Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 12/23/2012 13:46 -0500Why'd the Fed announce QE 4? Three reasons: the US economy is nose-diving again and the Fed is acting preemptively. The Fed is trying to provide increased liquidity going into the fiscal cliff. The Fed is funding the US’s Government massive deficits.
December 22nd
The Lie that Prosecuting Bank Fraud Will Destabilize the Economy Is What Is REALLY Destroying the Economy
Submitted by George Washington on 12/22/2012 23:38 -0500Failing to Prosecute White Collar Crime Guarantees a Weak and Unstable Economy … and Future Financial Crashes
BaNZaI7's YuLEPoCaLYPSe 2012...
Submitted by williambanzai7 on 12/22/2012 19:17 -0500A twisted Christmas tradition...
Cold Wind
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 12/22/2012 17:06 -0500It’s cold out, I’m just trying to turn up the heat......
Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook Holiday Mode
Submitted by Marc To Market on 12/22/2012 07:28 -0500
The US dollar rebounded smartly at the end of last week as the realization that it was increasingly likely the US would go over the fiscal cliff. This has been our base case, but many seemed to expect it to be averted and were looking past it.
December 21st
Tom Lee Gets it Right For Once -- With a Little Help From His Friends
Submitted by CrownThomas on 12/21/2012 22:18 -0500So as you can see, if you're awful at your job, it helps to have friends to bail you out. And also friends in the "media" who will make sure to publish the results (if they're good)
21 Dec 2012 – “ Blue Christmas ” (The Dread Zeppelin, 2002)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/21/2012 12:00 -0500Trailing the US, as not much else to do. EGBs firming up, but mostly because they‘re supposed to do so, as Equities end a little softer, because they have to, as well. Credit likewise. So no Risk highs under the Xmas three… All because of the US. Blue.
"Blue Christmas" (Bunds 1,38% -4; Spain 5,23% +1; Stoxx 2644 -0,6%; EUR 1,318 -40)
A Potentially Nasty Snapshot Of Risk Resulting In Another Trillion Of Taxpayer Funded Bank Bailouts - A Walkthrough
Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 12/21/2012 11:55 -0500- AIG
- Bank Run
- Bear Stearns
- Book Value
- CDS
- Commercial Paper
- Commercial Real Estate
- Comptroller of the Currency
- Counterparties
- Countrywide
- Covenants
- Credit Default Swaps
- Credit-Default Swaps
- Creditors
- default
- ETC
- Fail
- fixed
- Fractional Reserve Banking
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- Greece
- headlines
- Investment Grade
- Lehman
- Lehman Brothers
- Mark To Market
- Merrill
- Merrill Lynch
- Morgan Stanley
- None
- notional value
- Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
- Private Equity
- Real estate
- recovery
- Sovereign Debt
- Stress Test
Bigger Tax Payer Bank Bailouts Cometh? If You Think Taxes Are Gonna Be Higher You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet! I welcome one and all to show me how it will not be so.
WiLLiaM BaNZaI TCHaiKoVSKi'S DeBT BoeHNeR'S SuiTe...
Submitted by williambanzai7 on 12/21/2012 11:34 -0500Time to crack some nuts...
Mayans Forecast Boehner Fail?
Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 12/21/2012 10:02 -0500Maybe the Mayans had it right all along…..
Treasury Selloff Exhaustion Has Reversed - Next Stop Month / Year End
Submitted by govttrader on 12/21/2012 09:57 -05002 days ago US Treasury 10yr yields were 10bps cheap vs stocks. Well, not anymore. US Treasuries now have both technical and cyclical forces on their side for the next 1-2 weeks. Let us explain how...
Ghost Exchange
Submitted by CalibratedConfidence on 12/21/2012 08:58 -0500It's no secret that high-frequency traders and those who employ bad or manipulative algorithms are swimming in pools of money. Most of these guys making complex statements for computers to follow aren't even financially inclined, most are physicists, aeronautics engineers, and quants looking to impose math upon the world instead of deriving it from the world. This form of trading has reversed the flow of finance. At one point the stocks that make up an ETF would move before the ETF. Now because of the speed at which computers can freeze the stock prices, calculate wh
Market Discovers Fiscal Cliff, Sends Dollar Higher
Submitted by Marc To Market on 12/21/2012 07:10 -0500
It had seemed that many participants were looking past the US fiscal cliff and were to be content taking on more risk. However, yesterday's late developments have provided a cold slap of reality. Our base scenario, under which the US does in fact go over the cliff appears more likely now that Speak Boehner's "Plan B" failed to draw sufficient Republican support to allow a vote. Indeed, there is some speculation that the failure of Boehner's gambit may see a leadership challenge right after the New Year.
The lack of a coherent Republican strategy has prompted a large unwind of risk-on and thin holiday market conditions may be exacerbating the price action. In the risk-off mode, the US dollar and yen have performed best. The dollar-bloc, which has generally lagged in recent days, remains under pressure.
