Archive - Dec 2012 - Blog entry

Today, Spain barely functions as a country. Basic services have shut down. The entire banking system is on life support. And yet banks and the stock market are ralling.

EU confidence sparks a Euro bull run. Both the EU’s strongest and weakest economies are positively shifting. The S&P has lifted Greece’s credit rating by 5 notches to a “B minus”, and Germany’s IFO survey came in strong for the second month running indicating that business sentiment is on the rise.

Another one for posterior...

This is one of the most revealing graphs we have posted. This Great Graphic comes from the Washington Post's Wonk blog. First, it shows that a step toward fiscal adjustment is coming to the US. The difference between Obama's plan and Boehner's is how the burden of the adjustment should be distributed. Second, chest thumping and the hand wringing that has surround the negotiations seems dramatically out of proportion on the differences. This is a case of the hubris of small differences.

This week's pattern remains intact. The US dollar continues to trend lower against the European currencies, but is firmer within the dollar-bloc and against the yen. Spanish and Italian bond yields are lower, while the long-end of the Japanese curve is heavy. Equity markets are finishing the year with a firm note, with board gains in Asian, with the notable exception of Shanghai and Jakarta, and in Europe, with the exception of Stockholm. The euro is at 7-month highs today, pushing toward $1.3300. The next target is near $1.3385. Sterling has been bid to near the year's high set in late September just above $1.6300. There is little chart resistance until closer to $1.6500. The dollar's slide against the Swiss franc has extended to CHF0.91 and appears headed for CHF0.9000. The dollar-bloc is not participating in this move against the greenback. This week, for example, the New Zealand dollar has fallen as almost as much as the yen (1.03% and 1.08% respectively). The Australian and Canadian dollars are off 0.04% and 0.57% respectively. There are a few macro-developments to note:

Investors in the TBTF banks need to understand that the business model for this industry has changed.  Thank Liz Warren

First and foremost, QE does not create jobs. The UK has announced QE efforts equal to an amount greater than 20% of its GDP and has not seen any meaningful job growth. Similarly, Japan has announced nine rounds of QE for a combined effort equal to 20% of its GDP over the last 20 years and job growth remains dismal there.

Why Did We Lose Our Rights if the Government Isn’t Even Keeping Us Safe?

Another one for posterior...

The US dollar is mixed. Softer against the European complex, but firmer against the dollar bloc. It is essentially flat against the yen. Equity markets are advancing and the Nikkei, which gapped above the 3-year downtrend line yesterday, extended its gains by another 1%. Spanish and Italian bond yields are lower. Japanese yields continue to edge higher, with the long-end of the curve continuing to steepen gradually. The 10-20 year spread is near a 13-year high, for example. The BOJ's Shirakawa met with Abe briefly (20 minutes, according to press reports). The last big event of the week is the BOJ meeting that concludes on Thursday.

Ministry of Finance official: “That’s why the MoF is trying to gain control over the Bank of Japan.”

"the one thing that actually works, you know, state run communism may not be your cup of tea, but their government works. They have five-year plans"