In this chart and analysis, we compare the S&P 500 (black line) to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey. The AAII reports their respondents in three categories: bullish, bearish, and neutral. To analyze these AAII statistics, we create the “Farrell Sentiment Index,” defined as the number of bulls, divided by the number of bears, plus .5x the number of neutrals = Bulls/(Bears+.5Neutrals). This data can be quite volatile week to week, so we opted to convert this formulaic data series into two different types of charts.

The BLS better have some tricks up its statistical sleeve.

"The biggest threat to America...is moving toward a fascist theocracy...."--Frank Zappa

There's a very well-known publisher of market commentary which - like me - has been largely bearish over the past two and a half years. What is irksome to me is that, in the face of a market which has done little but push higher all this time, they keep pointing to a chart showing that in "real dollars" (in their view, gold) the market has indeed been crashing.

Ummm, that's stupid. Gold is an asset, but it isn't used as money in our society. Do you buy groceries with it? Pay your mortgage with it? Pay school tuition with it? I didn't think so.

I could make ANY prediction about ANY market and be correct if you allowed me to choose some kind of "currency" as a benchmark. Over any span of time, you can find something which has gone either up or down in value to support your claim, if that's what you're allowed to use as your divisor.

Stepping softly onto a slippery slope...

CFTC Comissioner Runs From Questions, Admits SEC Should be “Looked Into”

QE 3?  Been there, done that

To stir them up and start a war with Iran ...

President Obama was in town, fundraising.

This will make your hair stand on end...and according to news reports, it could happen as early as this Summer.

Ja, it is definitely safe...

One thing is for certain, the litigation is beginning to shift from minor players to major players at the core of the Financial Crisis. Investors take note, this is a major shift and needs to be monitored as it will have major implications for market dynamics going forward.

Just for fun - a ratio chart of Apple versus Research in Motion from 2008 to present. It's a stunner.

We all want to be the kid who gets rich quick and drives away in the Porsche.

The drums of war are beating louder and louder ... What's really going on?