Archive - 2012 - Blog entry

A triptych of greece, cement and resolutions.

The German industrial elite talks about exiting the Eurozone.... And to heck with Greece.

We don't have to run through the maze 5 times before we know what lever to push! 

I believe it’s only a matter of time before Germany walks out of the EU. When this happens the Euro will collapse a minimum of 20-30% and we will see numerous sovereign defaults. When the smoke clears the EU in its current form will be broken and we will have passed through a Crisis far worse than 2008.

Truthfully the only reason to be long stocks right now is in anticipation of more QE from the Fed at its January 25 FOMC meeting. However, the likelihood of more QE being announced at that time is slim to none. For starters, interest rates are already at record lows, so the Fed cannot use that excuse. Secondly the latest economic data out of the US, while heavily massaged, is showing some signs of improvement, which negates the need for more QE. And finally, Bernanke and the Fed are far too politically toxic for the Fed to begin another massive round of QE (the last one of $600 billion accomplished nothing) just for the sake of it.

All you need to read.

Recently, public interest in gold and silver and gold/silver mining stocks has been at multi-year lows. And that is a super bullish contrarian indicator.

So, who're you gonna believe, your NYC broker or your lyin' eyes???? Another Reggie Middleton "I told 'ya so" exclusive...

A failure of the NYC public school system featuring my daughter. For those that don't see the link between herd mentaility education and investing, my 5 year old son predicted the housing crash, Goldman's analysts and Bernanke didn't. 'Nuff said!

Eurozone special: the only developed economy where credit markets still have a say.

I continue to believe that the large difference between the valuation of WFC and C is actually about right and is a function of the high-risk business model at C.  Say what you want about the piles of cash, Dick Bove, C has a gross yield on lending assets that is more than 350bp above the industry average, a function of a subprime internal default target for the average customer.  This is a deliberate business model choice and one that, frankly, makes it hard for me to justify buying C. 

"King would say 'Please finish what I started.' "

A down day in the US on Tuesday could begin to trigger intermediate sell signals...~ Lee Adler

There is a sense of incredulousness regarding the recent price action.

Business school curricula today completely lacks the necessary knowledge to survive the deepening and widening global monetary & economic crisis. We offer a video and a few thoughts below regarding the type of knowledge that will help you prepare.