Archive - 2012 - Blog entry

December 19th

Burkhardt's picture

EU confidence sparks a Euro bull run. Both the EU’s strongest and weakest economies are positively shifting. The S&P has lifted Greece’s credit rating by 5 notches to a “B minus”, and Germany’s IFO survey came in strong for the second month running indicating that business sentiment is on the rise.

AVFMS's picture

Would be easy to call this boring, given the state of the market and volumes, but undercover Risk On definitively there. Greek 10s over the moon and far away (up 500 ticks)… Strong EUR. Seems a little easy, but who wants to fight? It’s Yule Time – at least until Friday, then we’ll see what the Mayans really meant.

"Oh Come All Ye Faithful" (Bunds 1,42% +0; Spain 5,25% -4; Stoxx 2658 +0,4%; EUR 1,326 +40)

Marc To Market's picture

This is one of the most revealing graphs we have posted. This Great Graphic comes from the Washington Post's Wonk blog. First, it shows that a step toward fiscal adjustment is coming to the US. The difference between Obama's plan and Boehner's is how the burden of the adjustment should be distributed. Second, chest thumping and the hand wringing that has surround the negotiations seems dramatically out of proportion on the differences. This is a case of the hubris of small differences.

Marc To Market's picture

This week's pattern remains intact. The US dollar continues to trend lower against the European currencies, but is firmer within the dollar-bloc and against the yen. Spanish and Italian bond yields are lower, while the long-end of the Japanese curve is heavy. Equity markets are finishing the year with a firm note, with board gains in Asian, with the notable exception of Shanghai and Jakarta, and in Europe, with the exception of Stockholm. The euro is at 7-month highs today, pushing toward $1.3300. The next target is near $1.3385. Sterling has been bid to near the year's high set in late September just above $1.6300. There is little chart resistance until closer to $1.6500. The dollar's slide against the Swiss franc has extended to CHF0.91 and appears headed for CHF0.9000. The dollar-bloc is not participating in this move against the greenback. This week, for example, the New Zealand dollar has fallen as almost as much as the yen (1.03% and 1.08% respectively). The Australian and Canadian dollars are off 0.04% and 0.57% respectively. There are a few macro-developments to note:

December 18th

AVFMS's picture

Another boring session, worsened by year end inactivity… Good close. Fiscal Cliff haggling on-going with a positive spin this time and Risk riding high.Spain catching up and paring yesterday’s soft patch, as is Italy. ESToxx at the highest since Aug 2011. Credit very squeezed. EUR strong. Merry Mood!

"I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus " (Bunds 1,42% +5; Spain 5,29% -12; Stoxx 2647 +0,7%; EUR 1,322 +50)

Marc To Market's picture

The US dollar is mixed. Softer against the European complex, but firmer against the dollar bloc. It is essentially flat against the yen. Equity markets are advancing and the Nikkei, which gapped above the 3-year downtrend line yesterday, extended its gains by another 1%. Spanish and Italian bond yields are lower. Japanese yields continue to edge higher, with the long-end of the curve continuing to steepen gradually. The 10-20 year spread is near a 13-year high, for example. The BOJ's Shirakawa met with Abe briefly (20 minutes, according to press reports). The last big event of the week is the BOJ meeting that concludes on Thursday.

Marc To Market's picture

Last week Eurogroup head Juncker warned that the situation tiny Cyprus was more worrisome than Greece.  While this seemed to be an exercise in hyperbole, sure enough Monday, a Cyprus official was quoted on the news wires warning of an imminent default.  


Hang on.  Didn't Cyprus reach a memorandum of understanding with the Troika ?  Indeed, it did. However, it will take some time to deliver the funds.  

December 17th