Archive - Jan 2013 - Blog entry

Untubbed...

On December 7, I published an article entitled “Deutsche Bank: Explaining The $12 Billion Loss That Never Was.” The piece outlined a series of complaints filed by former Deutsche Bank employees. One of those employees, Matthew Simpson, claimed to have discovered  “substantial anomalies” in the firm’s credit default swap book while working at Deutsche’s credit correlation desk. Deutsche -- of course -- denied the allegations but did fire a top derivatives trader after an internal investigation into the matter and ultimately paid $900,000 to settle a related SEC whistleblower case filed by Simpson. Reuters broke Simpson’s story in the summer of 2011.

A billion folks in the west would be quietly applauding....

That didn't take long, did it? I guess it's bullish when your most dangerous competitor catches up to you in customers BEFORE you've fully developed your business model or method of monetization, right???!!!

There have been some important developments in the interest rate differentials that help explain recent price action in the foreign exchange market. It is not simply rhetoric weighing on the yen, for example. Japanese 2-10 year interest rates remain softer on the year and over the past three months, while monetary conditions have tightening in Europe and US 10-year yields are higher.

An overview of the fundamental determinants of the foreign exchange market in the week ahead. I look beyond the official rhetoric at what is pushing the yen lower. I also discuss the tightening of European monetary condition. In addition, there is a brief discussion of the key US events this week: the FOMC, Q4 GDP estimate, and US jobs report.

An uncomfortable reflection...

 Underneath the veneer of goodwill and the occasional necessary coordinated intervention, tensions are rising between Central Banks. When the US debases the US Dollar it pushes the Euro higher. This hurts German exports which in turn angers the Bundesbank.

One cannot see clearly while in the midst of the madness using only the cognitive tools and worldview assumptions supported and promoted by the madness.

"There's something deeply American about the violence of this sport."

The fact that this report exists, confirms to me that some Fed members are increasingly uncomfortable with those risks.

Now corporations are begging: we need more inflation!

Farewell Davos. The Farce be with you all...

Here is a weekly over view of the currency market from a technical perspective.  The divergence between the performance of the dollar against the euro-bloc, with the exception of sterling, and the other major currencies is noteworthy.  In the analysis, I suggest a few opportnities for near-term contrarians.  I fully appreciate that some readers eschew technical analysis and regulate it to the same space as numerology and witchcraft.  Yet, even still, it is useful to recall Keynes' view that the markets are like a beauty contest and the trick is not to pick who one thinks is the most beautiful, but to pick who others will think most beautiful.  Moreover, technicals allow one to quantify how much one is willing to lose in a way that fundamental macro-economic analysis doesn't.  It is a tool then for risk management.  

The Securities Litigation and Consulting Group just released a report which highlights the rise in Apple's stock price coinciding with the issuance of debt products linked to Apple's stock price.