Archive - Feb 2013 - Blog entry

Better to move your beverages away from the computers...

Hi folks,

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has walked a tightrope over the last few years of keeping the EU together without infuriating the German populace to the point of having to abandon ship.

The Truth About Facebook That No Media Outlet Or Analyst Has Bothered To Notice

Do the "deciders" in the globe want to enrich those that are now parking hot money in gold? "No" is the answer.

Here is an oveview of the forces that are driving the foreign exchange market and price targets for the euro and yen.  We identify the ECB meeting as a potential challenge to the existing price trends, but expect it to see the tightening of financial conditions in the euro area as partially a reflection of positive forces, especially that banks have reduced, on the margins, the reliance on ECB for funding.  Draghi will likely attempt to calm the market down with words not a rate cut.  Also we see the "currency wars" as being exaggerated, not just because the foreign exchange market has alsways been an arena of nation-state competition, but that it is primarily in the realm of rhetoric among the G7 countries.  Few, including Germany, who have expressed concern about what Japan is doing, have objected to the Swiss currency cap.  There is not a bleeding over into a trade war.  The push back against the Japan (among the G7) appears to have slakcened a bit.  Officials prefer Japan not provide price targets for bilateral exchange rates (like dollar-yen), but if stimulative monetary and fiscal policy weakens the yen, that is ok.  

Exxon reported 4Q profit at a five-year high boosted by its refining arm.  However, Delta Airlines (DAL) can’t tell a similar success story with its newly acquired refinery at Trainer, PA. 

No problemo....

The NY Fed is the single most powerful entity in charge of the Fed’s daily operations. How can any investor believe that the Fed can manage the system and restore trust when the NY Fed granted MF Global primary dealer status a mere nine months before the latter went bankrupt?

"Punxatawdry Ben is the annual bellweather of false profits; he prints predictably and then the ink disappears."--WilliamBanzai7

Gold fell $11.70 or 0.7% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,664.80/oz. Silver slipped to a low of $31.09 and finished with a loss of 1.66%.

Gold Spot $/oz, 60 Days, 30 Minutes – (Bloomberg)

I don't see why this time should be different

The divergence of a stronger euro and weaker yen has continued and the latest news stream has pushed it further. There are several sub-themes at work as well and they also have been underscored today. These include: 1) German recovery from Q4 contraction, 2) the divergence between German and French economic performance (suggesting a divergence of national interest too?), 3) the decoupling of sterling from the euro orbit, but we suggest here that while the UK economy is without a growth impulse, the market may be exaggerating the weakness, 4) the ECB is less likely to push against the passive tightening of financial conditions when it meets next week, and 5) the Chinese economic data is sufficiently mixed as not to lend the heavy Australian dollar much support. Following the FOMC, the US economic data needs to be well off the consensus to resist the current forces.