Archive - Jun 2013 - Blog entry

A macro overview.

Emerging markets have tanked but some of the reasons for their underperformance will prove overblown, providing opportunities for long-term investors.

A dispassionate review of a slew of Chinese economic data.  Why the capital inflows are not a result of Qe as much as Chinese investors gaming their own system.  Why the lower inflation is not evidence of Japan exporting deflation, as some have claimed.  Why the decline in imports may be related to prices and foreign demand, more than Chinese demand itself.  

Your Mission Mr Phelps: _____________________

Looks like the sun has gone behind the clouds in China for a bit! Not only are the solar panels creating friction between China and the EU, but now it turns out that last month saw Chinese export growth unexpectedly decrease.

A harbinger of things to come in other markets

Here is my weekly outlook for the major foreign currencies.  Yes they are not backed by silver or gold, it is still the largest of the major captial markets at an estimated turn-over of some $4 trillion a day.  Yes, officials may try to guide the market directly and indirectly, but success is often elusive.   

They are playing a game...

Top NSA Official: Government Tapping CONTENT, Not Just Metadata … Using Bogus “Secret Interpretation” of Patriot Act

This was one helluva week. Nevertheless current markets are still hooked on QE.

The whispers about private equity exiting the rental market are now out in the open. A few reports are highlighting that some private equity investors are testing the waters for an exit via IPOs. Some have asked why it is necessary for these investors to hold onto properties for a few years before exiting. One of the main reasons is for valuation purposes given that it takes a few years to gather enough workable data on say a block of 1,000 homes and their overall vacancy rates, rental rates, and expense ratios. This would be important if this pool of homes were to be converted into an income stream for investors. Yet many are now looking to exit given how hot the stock market is. You want to sell into momentum. A few other key points include rents falling in places like Las Vegas where investor demand has been incredibly high. Is the hot money planning an exit?

Obama Asks Military to Draw Up Plans for Offensive Overseas Cyber-Strikes

The uncertainty about when the Fed will begin tapering its programme of asset purchases has increased volatility, both pushing and pulling on global financial markets. “at this juncture, the markets are more concerned about tapering than about weak [US and global] growth,” says MIG Bank’s Chief Economist, Luciano Jannelli.

Obama Indistinguishable from Bush ... Or Stasi East Germans

And shove it up your Google!