Archive - Jul 2013 - Blog entry

They can be handcuffed, they can be given coffins, they can be parachuted, they can be bungee’d, they can be life-jackets, they can be a hello and they can have their hands shaken. What are we talking about? Well, all of these things seem to have one thing in common, they are golden!

Bernanke's comments washed out some late dollar longs and they may be reluctant to re-establish ahead of the Chairman's testimony before Congress at the end of next week.  The underlying bullish case for the dollar remains intact.  

Gasoline RBOB price moves are ridiculous.  RBOB closes Friday above 40 cents from the price on July 1^st without any major news like 5 refiners exploding, or a major hurricane...

Serf's Up...

The move is very reminiscent of the 2007 top where we had a top, a brief collapse and then a final burst higher to a new high. Within a few months however, the markets had begun to descend into what would ultimately be the worst Crisis in 100 years.

Using simply math, it's easy to calculate that the jig is up in Portugal. Between now and this time next year, we'll likely see defaults and/or restructurings.

Trading volumes for gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) jumped to record highs today a week after the bourse launched after-hours trading, driven by a surge in investment and hedging demand, according to Reuters.

A new data base decomposes OECD trade flows to discern the value added actually being done. Bottom line is that when this important economic concept is used, the bilateral US trade deficit with China appears considerably smaller than conventional approaches. And to anticipate potential criticism, it does not mean that one time series is lying...

It looks as if China’s days of double-digit economic growth are well and truly over (at least, for the moment). Data that will be released next week (second quarter figures) will show a quarter-on-quarter slowdown that is setting in now for China’s gross domestic product. The figures will be issued on Monda

They're creepy and their spooky...

Investing in early stage large infrastructure projects is notoriously a poor investment for investors. Instead the better option is in buying distressed debt on infrastrucure for cents on the dollar.

Welcome, Brother and Sister. Peace be unto you.  So a while ago we finally had a chance to meet, strike hands and exchange pleasantries, after all this time of crossed schedules and missed opportunities. Chumba has been busy with the trials and tribulations of personal apocalypse. Indeed, we shall all experience our own revealing in one way or another, and sooner rather than later, perhaps sooner than you expect, or want.  Let us sit down now at the table. I'll bring out the board. It'll take some time to set up all the pieces and explain how each operates. After all, if one is to engage in a contest, it is only fair that each player know the parameters of engagement.

China's GDP number should be in the 6.7% range for the quarter.  This is the black swan ...

My muse today was from the movie Network from nearly 40 years ago. In this clip you merely need to substitute global central banks (Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ and etc) and mega-banks (GS, JPM, C and etc) into the mix.

One minute we hear that Quantitative Easing is going completely, then it’s going a bit and withdrawing in side-steps and little paces and then it’s going to carry on. Where do we stand?