Archive - 2013 - Blog entry

Sterling is has eclipsed the yen as the main focus in the foreign exchange market. The surprising news that has kicked it to fresh multi-month low was that the BOE is closer to easing policy than has been suspected. While it was a unanimous decision to leave rates on hold as expected, it was a tighter 6-3 vote on new asset purchases.

The market had expected a 8-1 vote. Of particular interest, it is the fourth time Governor King has been outvoted.

A curious thing happened last week: the prices of gold and silver fell while open interest in futures rose.  This is not how the market has been behaving in recent years.

Before everyone gets too excited about the "great rotation" that still remains a ghost, keep in mind that the entire curve is still >1 standard deviation below its historical mean

LinkedIn appears to be social media, done correctly. It's share price reacted accordingly... This is not Facebo... Uh, I mean AOL!

Chinese data takeaway...

But if we examine the history of lumber prices relative to the strength of the housing sector, lumber prices may be getting slightly ahead of themselves from a valuation standpoint. 

With the end of Asia's lunar new year celebration and the return of the US and Canadian markets after yesterday's holiday, there is full liquidity in the global capital markets for the first time in over a week. The currencies are mixed, with the yen, sterling and the Australian dollar posting modest gains, while the euro, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar have heavier tones.

The Chinese yuan has weakened for the second day after returning from the extended holiday and is near 2-month lows. After reversing lower yesterday, the Shanghai Composite led the regional bourses lower with a 1.9% decline. The Composite is approaching its 20-day moving average (~2365) which it has not traded below since early December. European equity markets are higher and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up a little more than 0.5% led by consumer goods and basic materials. Of the main industrial sectors, only telecom is lower. European bond markets, core as well as periphery are lower.

Broadly speaking, we identify five factors that will shape foreign exchange rates in coming days.

The Real Bill is quite different from the bond. It isn’t lending at all. It is a clearing instrument that allows the goods to move to the gold-paying consumer before said consumer pays with gold.

Buying the dip, will work until it doesn’t.

I think it's the Atlantic that could use a lesson on markets and the economy.

Timing is a bit inconvenient, however.

There are just too many variables, too much information, and even unknown variables that play into market dynamics. 

Here come da judge...

Fundamentals? What the hell does that mean?

Banzai7's got it covered...