Archive - 2013 - Blog entry

Did Executives, who’re dumping their stock, get actionable information from the Fed?

This is an overview of the euro area financial conditions, including the ECB's balance sheet, deposits and Target2 imbalances. By these measures, the financial condition in Europe continues to improve. We suggest the biggest loser last week was Hollande who was rebuffed twice by Merkel, who is the vastly superior politician. While Hollande's call for FX policy to address the over-valued euro was easily turned aside, less appreciated is that Merkel joined forces with the UK's Cameron to cut the EU budget and France's sacred cow--CAP.

That's Pope, not Dope and Dorner not Droner!

The markets generate noise and a signal.  Reasonable people can and do differ on which is which.  This brief note address the signals for the yen and euro.  Secondarily it looks at sterling and the Australian dollar. 

It seems that to exclusively focus on one side of the equation can be human nature at times, and with regard to inflation concerns humans never see the other side of the equation, i.e., areas where they are actually experiencing deflation in their lives.

The currency wars are just beginning. It is a race to the bottom.

Governments Move to Destroy Online Anonymity ... Google Helps

Everyone is currently worried about inflation with the central banks printing like there is no tomorrow.

Some interesting footnotes in a CBO report.

A Feast oF FiAT FooLs...

Corruption only works as long as the benefits of being “on the take” outweigh the consequences of getting caught. As soon as the consequences become real (namely someone gets in major trouble), then everyone starts to talk. This process has now begun in Spain.

The fight over plant closures, layoffs, and bailouts in the collapsing auto sector

Coffee is just that kind of market great for traders and well worth putting on your trading radar screens.

Here is a review of the technical condition of the major currencies.  In my professional experience, I know few purist fundamental traders in the foreign exchange market.  Even for those, like myself, who study the macro economic and political fundamentals, technical analysis allows us to quantify the risk. Those who make money in the markets, do not do so because they are right more often, but rather they are disciplined risk managers.  Technical analysis provides a way to manage the risk by helping to identify where we are wrong.    It is offered here not as a substitute for fundamental analysis, but as a complement.  

Currency War ... Trade War ... Hot War