Archive - 2013 - Blog entry

Here is a weekly over view of the currency market from a technical perspective.  The divergence between the performance of the dollar against the euro-bloc, with the exception of sterling, and the other major currencies is noteworthy.  In the analysis, I suggest a few opportnities for near-term contrarians.  I fully appreciate that some readers eschew technical analysis and regulate it to the same space as numerology and witchcraft.  Yet, even still, it is useful to recall Keynes' view that the markets are like a beauty contest and the trick is not to pick who one thinks is the most beautiful, but to pick who others will think most beautiful.  Moreover, technicals allow one to quantify how much one is willing to lose in a way that fundamental macro-economic analysis doesn't.  It is a tool then for risk management.  

The Securities Litigation and Consulting Group just released a report which highlights the rise in Apple's stock price coinciding with the issuance of debt products linked to Apple's stock price.

Royal Bank of Scotland Says We're In Deep DooDoo ... Worst Economy Since Before Queen Victoria Was Crowned

Sit down, but first and remove all coffee and beverages...

Smarmy is gone.

Since 2009 all cash buyers have purchased roughly one third of all Southern California home sales. This is a significant number and unlike the early 2000s, many of these buyers are looking to hold onto properties as rentals. A good portion of buying has come from larger hedge funds and an increase of foreign money has caused competition on an already low selection of homes to become more pronounced. The latest inventory report for California is telling in many ways. Many of the larger metro areas in California are seeing annual inventory drops of 50 to 70 percent. Those looking to buy are facing added competition from a variety of unlikely sources. Last year in February we set a record with the number of homes sold to absentee buyers (29.9 percent). Where is all the inventory going in California?

The ultimate Davos slide show...

Three main forces are at work today: 1) The continued decline in the yen--driven by more evidence of deflation and more jawboning. 2) Poor UK data and weak underlying technicals extend sterling's losses. 3) Stronger German ZEW survey and the repayment fo 137.2 bln euros from 278 banks.

“Those are my principles,” Marx said.  “And if you don't like them... well, I have others.”

Reconciling Opposites ...

Cannot be resolved by decapitating the yen

All in all, the market took apple`s takedown rather well, which is probably bullish! 

The market gets smoked for 1/4 Trillion in a single name, and we're trading at the highs. Go figure.

I do understand this is very co-dependent, sick, sad, and wrong on many levels, but I have decided that I don't really care.

Mary Jo White: White House, white collar, white shoe, white out, white wash?