Archive - 2013 - Blog entry

The underlying trends seen this year have continued, but after strong follow through in Asia, a more subdued tone has been seen in Europe. The US dollar is generally softer, except against the yen and sterling. Japanese markets were closed for holiday, but the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose almost 0.3%, lifted by more than a 3% rally in China on speculation that there may be a sharp increase in the cap on foreign investors' ability to invest in Chinese equities. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is hp about 0.4%, led by a rise in financials. Spanish stock market is at its highest level in almost a year (Feb 2012) and Italy's market is at its best August 2011, though their bond markets are seeing some profit-taking today. With a light economic calendar in North America today, Bernanke's speech in Michigan after the markets close may be the highlight. We identify six key factors shaping the investment climate.

Are German industrialists getting cold feet?

From there to Timbuktoo...

If the Republicans want to shut down the government, they have a much better issue to do it over than the Debt Limit. 

The question many of us had going into today was whether the no follow-through allowed rule would be implemented yet again by The Gold Cartel for the zillionth time in a row.

Or did I mean Commem-Mooning a moron idea?

America Sets Its Sights On Controlling African Resources … And Reducing Chinese Influence

There are very few free lunches in the world, there will be some costs or unintended consequences of this newfound commitment towards a weaker Yen.

Even if you’re white, insured, educated, or in upper-income groups and live a healthy lifestyle, you’re still getting the short end of the stick

If you try to sit on a four-legged stool that has one busted leg, you fall on your ass, look surprised or stupid, and maybe get hurt.

There have been some large moves in the foreign exchange market in recent days.  The euro posted its largest rally in four months last week.  The yen has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since June 2010 and extended the declining streak to nine consecutive weeks, something not seen since 1989.  The Canadian and Australian dollar rose to multi-moth highs, as did the Mexican peso.  

In last week's technical note, we suggested the key question whether the sharp drop in the major foreign currencies following the avoidance of the full fiscal cliff in the US was trend reversal or overdue correction.  We favored the latter and looked for the underlying trends to continue.   They did.  

Now market participants face a different question.  Given the out-sized moves, have the trends become stretched?  The answer, we propose, is more nuanced than last week.  There is not one answer for all the major currencies we review here.

After reading it you say "Damn, why didn't I think of that!". By illustrating the transforming telecomm landscape, I may save up to $5,700 for at least 1/4 of the readers perusing this diatribe. Yes, it's for real, and its a benefit of the "knowlege how" mentality that I described in my previous pieces on education. You'll see where I'm coming from once you get to the long graphic below...

You most definitely do not want to bring any food or beverages near this post...

The investment world is convinced that China is about to engage in another massive round of stimulus. After all, this is what China did in 2008 when its economy slowed, so surely this is what they’ll do now that the economy is slowing again.

After out sized moves in the foreign exchange market yesterday, a consolidative tone has emerged with a few exceptions. The big winner yesterday was the euro and with a narrow range of about a third of a cent today, the market seems as if it is catching its breath before assaulting important resistance near $1.33, which capped it in mid-December and at the very start of the new year. Sterling recovered from a test on $1.60 at mid-week, but lagged behind the euro. The pullback today is also more pronounced after the disappointing industrial output figures. Industrial production rose 0.3%, half the recovery the consensus expected after the 0.9% decline in October. The key disappointment was in manufacturing, which contracted 0.3% compared with consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain, following the 1.4% slide in October. The increases concerns that the UK economy slipped back into contraction following expansion in Q3. Support is now seen near $1.6080.