Archive - 2013 - Blog entry

There are seven items that will be on the radar screen of global investors in the week ahead. 1. There is confusion over Fed policy. Despite the leadership (Bernanke, Yellen and Dudley) demonstrating their unwavering commitment to use heterodox monetary policy in an attempt to promote a stronger economy in the face of household de-leveraging and fiscal consolidation, many have read the FOMC minutes to imply an early end to the $85 bln a month in long-term asset (MBS and Treasuries). That December meeting was historic not because it marked the beginning of the end of QE, but the exact opposite, the nearly doubling monthly purchases and the adoption of macro-economic guidance (6.5% unemployment and 2.5% inflation) before rates are lifted.

Gold is clothing, not money...

Violence and Threats Being Used to Intimidate and Coerce the American Public for Political Purposes

Big Bucks: the initial step alone costs ¥650 billion

The ascent of the Democratic Party of Japan marked the end of Japan's one-party state, dominated by the Liberal Democratic Party since the 1955.  However, the DPJ was unable to address the challenges Japan faced, was internally unstable, as illustrated by the revolving door in the prime minister's office, and spent scarce political clout to support a controversial retail sales tax increase.  

The LDP has returned to power.  Its ascent is a victory for the old elite.  Reports suggest that half of the cabinet positions were given to members of parliament who had inherited their Diet seats from their families.    The LDP's program, or Abenomics as it has been dubbed, seeks to strengthen the domestic economy and enhance Japan's ability to project its power internationally. 

Apart from the slight uptick from the bottom in the housing market, the rest of the economy is just not robust enough to produce earning`s growth.

People are talking about the Trilion Dollar Tuna idea to save the economy...

Bernanke: Drop it Janet. My mind is made up. Meeting over.

One of the most important decisions participants in the foreign exchange must make is whether to view the dramatic pullback in most of the major foreign currencies seen in the early days of the new year as a reversal of the trend or as simply an overdue correction.   Our technical analysis sides with the latter and we anticipate renewed dollar weakness in the period ahead. 

We would be forced to reconsider if the euro fell through the $1.2980 area or if sterling fell below $1.60.  Although the dollar's sharp gains against the yen have left it over-extended, we see no compelling technical sign that a reversal is at hand.  Just like ECB's Draghi wielding Outright Market Transaction scheme drove down Spanish and Italian yields, Japan's Abe's rhetoric has been sufficient to drive the yen down without lifting a finger or spending cent.

Why We Are In a Perpetual Series of Wars ...

If anybody should be labeled a lunatic, it should be the Democrats and those that are encouraging these unsound financial spending policies.

Something is going on that reeks of the dreaded phrase, “this time, it’s different”: secret discussions in Germany.

While the cost of living has become a problem for some in the US (courtesy of the Fed’s inflationary policies) it’s become a real nightmare for many in the emerging markets where as much as 50% of income is spent by consumers on food.

Most people are missing the boat regarding the Netflix/SEC tangle as the more relevant issue is the seemingly “selective disclosure” on Facebook by the Netflix CEO.

The far more substantial risk from the pending budget negotiations remains as does the appalling US national debt and unfunded liability situation – both of which offer long term support to gold and silver.

The market lustily greeted the deal that U.S. Congress passed to raise taxes on the wealthy and spare the middle and lower income earners.

However, the very necessary cutting of budgets in various sectors, military and domestic, will no doubt fuel many more political battles as the nation’s finances continue to deteriorate.