Archive - Blog entry

Project Mayhem reviews the most important financial and geopolitical news of the past week and takes a look at the week ahead.

The SSTF pointed me to their web site. They provide information regarding the range of alternatives available to "fix" the problem. In my view they have come up with nothing that will work.

The growing divergence between lower 10 year Treasury yields and higher equity prices continues.

Natural gas price has spiked almost 60 % since Labor Day and prompted investors to believe a V-shape recovery might be near for the brutally battered U.S. natural gas market. However, don’t break out the champagne just yet until you learn more about two of the major factors driving this latest spike, Operation Flow Orders, and the trader's perspective.

As you have all read by now, Corus Bancshares went belly up on Friday adding yet another failed institution to the growing hall of shame. What makes Corus unique, however, is that they may have been the first failure with little to no delinquencies in their major loan portfolios.

I still think the best course of action is not to fight the tape, and of course, don't become fodder for the bulls.

The banking/ hedge fund/ private equity/ commercial real estate bubble is the Mother of All bubbles, but this is endemic to a culture that promotes excessive risk taking and rewards it with excessive compensation.

The stock market values companies based on earnings. Residential real estate is no different these days. So what's your home worth? Based on this simple calculation it may be lower than you think.

Does all this mean the W-recovery is off the table? Not necessarily. What it means is that there is a lot of liquidity in the system that will spur another asset bubble. And we all know that asset bubbles do not end well.

By my count the D.C. mortgage lenders have upward of $1 trillion of loans on their books that were made to achieve social objectives. This has been 'play money' for Congress and past Administrations for years. The boss at FHFA has told Congress this has to stop. Where are chips going to fall on this one?

This sugar story will leave a bitter taste in your mouth. 30 year old stories come back to life. What is the FDA doing? And What does Don Rumsfeld have to do with this?

For the third time, gold soared past the $1,000 level, causing the market to eye the precious metal's record of $1,033.90 reached in March 2008. While Citigroup is predicting a $2,000 scenario by next year due to continuing dollar weakness, a number of bullish factors, both near and long term, have converged to boost gold.

Biz is booming for guns and ammo. This is not one of those 'Green Shoots' however.

The challenges in private markets are also weighing on many institutional investors who are growing increasingly impatient with private equity groups charging hefty fees on the big funds they raised during the debt bubble. It's fair to say that unless activity picks up, private markets will reach a breaking point - one that may weaken the industry for a very long time.

The rules of the game have changed. After the disaster of 2008, pension funds will be scrutinizing their investments a lot more carefully, especially their investments in alternatives like hedge funds, private equity, real estate and commodity funds. Those funds who refuse to adapt will find it extremely difficult to raise the money they need to compete.