Archive - Oct 16, 2009 - Story

Developing story from BNO. Quotes state media reports.

Earlier Marla shared her views on peculiar option action and what the implication of this may be for the oil (and geopolitical) complex. We present some thoughts out of John Bougearel that takes a look at the argument from a more technical perspective.

A week ago the world was split into two camps: those who said Robert Fisk was an idiot and that anyone who believes him is a tinfoil hat wearing paranoid sociopath, and those who said Robert Fisk was brilliant and that anyone who does not believe him is an unimaginative, unintelligent, conservative boor. Yet nobody tried to confirm or deny his data. Today, Russia's Prime Minister and de facto viceroy Vladimir Putin finally made it clear that the presumably insane Fisk was not making stuff up.

The school that epitomizes the dangers of groupthink (especially by very intelligent people) and tends to get caught in both the virtues and vices of its own ingeniosity, saw just how expensive hubris can be in 2009. Harvard's endowment dropped 27.3% in 2009 to $27 after hitting roughly $10 billion higher the year before. And not only that, but the world's most famous university almost had a liquidity (and existential) crisis after it set out to prove all those who claim gross and net on an IR swap are never the same (45% is damn near close).

"That’s why I have urged the SEC to undertake a comprehensive “ground up” review of a broad range of market structure issues before more piecemeal changes occur. We have seen this horror movie before, and only timely regulatory examination can best prevent a sequel: When markets develop rapidly and are not transparent, effectively regulated or fair, the movie’s ending scene can be one of tragedy affecting millions of people." -Sen. Ed Kaufman

Even as we have anniversaried the Lehman collapse, the primary indicator of economic viability: intermodal traffic, continues to decline. In fact the weekly decline was slight worse, and came out at -17.2% YoY for week 40, nominally worse than the prior week's -17.1%. The categories most impacted were Primary Forest Products and Lumber and Wood Products, both instrumental in new housing construction. If there is a reason to be buying Centex, Lennar and Toll, sure don't look for it here.

This evening I was sipping on some California wine when I had the most American of entrepreneurial ideas (to get rich): short sell my neighbor’s house.

At first it was just the smaller banks, but now the big boys have joined the collective cry against FASB 166 and 167, according to which beginning January 1, banks will likely see up to $900 billion in off-balance sheet assets being onboarded to bank balance sheets. This would likely mean banks need to dramatically increase their Tangible and Tier 1 Capital to offset the capital needed to account for possible asset deteriorations. And that, of course, is unacceptable to banks who know too well the deep shit they still find themselves in.

Once more, according to the financial press, the world’s fiscal problems have finally turned the corner and it’s all over, all over again. But the truth is far from the puff pieces being spread around the mainstream media. The financial press is beginning to give déjà vu a bad name. Looking at a typical article on Bloomberg “JPMorgan’s Investment Bank Rescues Earnings From Loan Losses” (October 14th 2009), we find a series of interesting claims. These include the claim that the bank has managed to produce record quarterly earnings year-on-year of US$3.59bn, whilst at the same time re-paying US$25bn of government bailout funding. A big cheese of Wall Street is then quoted in the article as saying that this is impressive stuff.
Indeed, it would be impressive stuff if there were any truth in it. So let’s take a look a JP Morgan’s own supplement to the Q3 financial report and see how many fiscal miracles have really been worked.

Once again, after horrid results from IBM, BAC and GE, the dip buyers come in to swoop up stocks and rescue them from another crash, Steve McQueen U-turn style...

Dylan Ratigan explains "how Goldman Sachs pulled off the amazing trick of making $3 billion in three months time, while the entire financial system collapses, foreclosures are at a record and unemployment skyrckets, and the US dollar collapses."

As if Moody's needed any more black marks against it, going through the Galleon indictment indicates that Raj Rajaratnam used, among many other tricks, a leak at Moody's to provide him with information on the Hilton Hotel LBO in which Galleon ended up making $4 million, and throwing a $10,000 kickback to the Moody's leaker. This is not one isolated incident: one can extrapolate that this kind of behavior was prevalent at Moody's (and probably at the other legacy rating agency) throughout the LBO boom. Just how many hedge fund managers made a killing by being stupid enough to buy stocks, or, a little smarter, to buy CDS or steepeners in the 2006-2007 period courtesy of Moody's leaks? Perhaps it is time to go through the phone records of every single Moody's analyst in that two year time period.

The Reuters/University of Michigan index fell to 69.4 in early October, below the 73.5 final September reading, and below economists' expectations of unchanged (73.5). The biggest factor for the drop was the decline in consumer expectations which was down a substantial 5.9 points to 67.6, well below expectations, while current conditions came in at 72.1, in line with consensus.

Options on Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures rank among the more obscure (and illiquid) instruments you can actually trade.  Derivative^2's aren't exactly the sort of investment you would expect amateurs to trade (or even recognize), in fact.  Actually, it's hard for even pros to find.  (Try pulling it up on your Bloomberg if you don't already know the symbol).  Why then has (have) someone(s) been accumulating November $100 calls (which expire in just over 30 days) in quite some size?  Just a quick look at even incomplete volume data easily shows 70,000 calls changing hands over the last 30 days, half of them in the last two weeks and 12,595 on Wednesday.

Max Keiser in his prime, discussing whether the crisis is over: "It'd not froth, it's fraud. This is an incredible case of accounting fraud and the American peasants have got to be the stupidest people in the world today: they don't mind becoming peasants, they don't mind living like peasants, and if that's the case, we should do nothing to step them from sliding into a peasant class." And this pearl: "The bankers on Wall Street are the equivalent of suicide bombers in other countries.They threaten to blow themselves up and blow up the economy in exchange for huge bailout money."