Archive - Dec 10, 2009 - Story

After we posted our preliminary thoughts on the Z.1 "Flow of Funds Accounts of the U.S." report earlier, we had the chance to dig deeper through the data in the governmental cash flow report. To our surprise we uncovered some dramatic data revisions whose presence highlights the recent "consumer resurgence" in a very different light. The key finding is that the government has been chronically overrepresenting Household Net Worth in original publications, and subsequently revising the data dramatically in order to hide the fact that consumers' wealth is nowhere near as impressive as originally represented. Putting a number to this statement: a $2.1 trillion downward revision in just one quarter.

Spreads were tighter in the US today as the ten-day swing cycle in IG has once again reached channel tights. Overnight outperformance on a weakening dollar was stymied by a weak jobless claims number that stalled the performance in the US after a decent open. Breadth was very positive though in credit as roll thoughts continue to weigh (positively) on IG names with tighteners outpacing wideners by almost 6-to-1.

Goldman on Dubai (12/01/2009) "Dubai Doubts & Implications on Fina [sic]" (1:03 hour mp3 file). h/t: Hedged In

I wonder how many more years the SEC will “look at” the ratings agencies before they nail them for putting USDA Grade A stickers on rotting horse shit. Maybe the SEC should do some soul-searching and ask why they allow private for-profit companies (with tons of conflicts of interests) to act as an oversight committee for financial products. Is that not the role of a governor? It’s as laughable as renaming “bribery” the socially acceptable term “lobbying.”

"Over the weekend, key MetWest professionals assumed portfolio management responsibilities for all of TCW’s high-grade fixed income client accounts. This transition has been orderly and seamless, a testament to the professionalism and enthusiasm of both MetWest and TCW employees.

Attached please find a complete list of our high-grade fixed income products and the respective portfolio managers, effective today. We expect you will notice a more collaborative, team-based approach to portfolio management. We believe this culture of cooperation will facilitate a quick, effective integration of our fixed income teams into a single unit.

We anticipated possible resignations as a result of this announcement. However, as of today, we have retained 70% of our mortgage-backed securities team." - TCW

Ken Lewis may think everyone has forgotten about him... But we haven't. Tomorrow's hearing before the House Oversight Committee will see the SEC's Robert Khuzami field questions about BofA's "criminal" acquisition of Merrill, which according to Dennis Kucinich represented an "egregious violation of securities laws." Consider it an appetizer ahead of the full blown jury trial before one Judge Jed Rakoff, coming soon to a publicly accessible courtroom near you.

November saw bullish ETF action, with over $8 billion in top 10 inflows, spread primarily among emerging markets, commodities (specifically GLD), and, surprisingly, the dollar, via the UUP. In the outflow category, the Russell 2000 (IWM) continues to be the biggest loser at ($775) million, even as its S&P sibling, the SPY saw an inflow of $857. We believe this confirms the activity which has started in recent months, of rotation from higher beta stocks (RUT) into merely high beta ones (SPY).

Several months ago Zero Hedge did an exhaustive study of relative contributions to GDP by consumer class decile: the conclusion was that even though it accounts for a mere 10% of US population, the ultra rich are responsible for over 40% of consumption in the US (yes David Bianco, that ever critical 70% of GDP, get over it). Of course, they end up being taxed for the privilege of consuming so much, but that's irrelevant for this post. What is, however, is a recent GALLUP poll which proves that Rosenberg's theme of "new normal frugality" is now entrenched in the consumer's psyche, and not just among the lower- and middle-classed, but, most surprisingly, in the higher income brackets as well. In November the richest Americans reported a 14% drop in average daily discretionary spending to $117. This is a far cry, and 30% off, from the peak of $185/day report in April of 2008. It also represents a disappointing downward inflection from October 2009, when hopes prevailed that upper income spending would once again take off courtesy of 33 Liberty.

"Early readings for tomorrow's retail sales indicate the number could disappoint. As many have pointed out already, the index of positive/negative surprises have been flashing red for the past few weeks: an indication the recovery could be losing momentum. Also, indications from retailers following black Friday were not exactly rosy. Macro economic models using available data are pointing to a possible flat number which could well rattle the market. This was confirmed by my friend Jonas Thulin, head of research for Nordea, as his forecasting arsenal points to a possibly negative number." - Nic Lenoir, ICAP

Once again, another boring tape. Hi-Fi traders are buying and selling bank stocks trading in the narrowest or ranges. Of particular interest is the CRE-infested regional bank index, wound up tighter than the wet skin on a bongo drum. Which way will it break?

Today's piece of contrarian economic insight comes once again from the strategists at SocGen, this time Dylan Grice, whose piece entitled "Popular Delusions: China's looming financial crisis will provide the next buying opportunity" is somewhat self explanatory. Not surprisingly, Dylan, who quotes the NBER, focuses on the overabundance of cheap credit as the catalyst that will ultimately topple the economy. Mr. Grice's conclusion: buy if you must, but wait for the credit bubble pop. This in itself should be so self-evident, especially in light of last year's events, yet so many speculators are glued to the buy button that the Chinese implosion will certainly not end pretty.

Just in case there is anyone still doubting what an impact the Fed's intervention in the bond market has had courtesy of the first (soon to be followed by second) QE program, one needs look no further than the 2s30s curve, which, at 372 bps is now the widest it has been in thirty years. However, regardless, of how one interprets Bernanke's indirect market manipulation, one thing is sure - investors are walking, no running, for the hills when it comes to the long-end of the curve. We wish Geithner all the best in his attempt to issue hundreds of billions of debt with a tenor greater than 10 years.

Yields 4.520% vs. Exp. 4.483%

Bid To Cover 2.45 vs. Avg. 2.55 (Prev. 2.37)

Indirect Bid To Cover: 1.34

Indirects 40.2% vs. Avg. 45.26% (Prev. 34.17%)

Alloted high 40.62%

According to the latest Flow of Funds report, household net worth increased by $2.7 trillion, of which 85% was the result of an increase in "Equity Shares at Market Value." With the mortgage piggy bank shut down for years, the only capitalappreciation recourse for Americans has become the uber-manipulated stock market. Zero Hedge expects another TV appearance by Obama within 24 hours, in which, to great pomp and circumstance, he will announce this increase without highlighting what the actual reason (Liberty 33, wink, wink; vertical yield curve) for the increase is. In other not so shocking news, consumer deleveraging continues with $113 billion in debt wiped out from both mortgage and consumer credit in Q3. Who took its place? Why the US government, which borrowed more than enough: Federal government debt outstanding increased by 20.6%! Welcome Central Planning - we eagerly await Obama's announcement of the first five year plan in one of the 10 or so daily TV spots he has reserved until Christmas.

Just released: the latest Mea Culpa from 85 Broad. Goldman's "entire 30-person management committee, which comprises all global divisional and regional leadership, will receive 100 percent of their discretionary compensation in the form of Shares at Risk, which are subject to restrictions for five years. Discretionary compensation represents the vast majority of senior management's compensation and is directly tied to the firm's overall performance. "