Archive - Dec 2009 - Story

RANsquawk 16th December Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

We bask in the generous glow of Abu Dhabi's merciful gift to Dubai. Hey, wait a second!

Uh, so remember when we were, like, gonna buy $7.5 billion in Citi stock? Yeah so, maybe not so much. In fact, since we have you on the phone, how about you pay us $4 billion just because?

"Late last week, Nouriel Roubini, the current go-to bubble diviner, published a report entitled, “The New Bubble in the Barbaric Relic that is Gold”. The report is scheduled to be released to the general public tomorrow, December 15. We have read the report and we disagree with its conclusion. In fact, our ongoing analysis indicates gold’s terminal value in this cycle will be multiples higher than current pricing." - QB Asset Management

In a poll on Fox News, with over 163 thousand people voting, the vast, vast majority, or 99% of poll respondents are against raising the debt ceiling, claiming "This out-of-control spending is outrageous and irresponsible." (at least Obama will get time to sneak in another 50-60 stimulus bills before China says "no mas"). We are not sure just how scientific this sampling is, but we would give it the benefit of the doubt with these kinds of numbers. Remember - the Senate is about to raise the debt ceiling from $12.1 trillion to something like $14 trillion. This means that the Senate is about to go against the wishes of 99% of America. How the Administration hopes to moderate the unprecedented political fallout that is sure to follow such an action is far beyond our meager analytical skills.

"Gold is used for many purposes, including as a reserve asset, as an investment, and for use in electronics, automobiles, and jewelry. Thus, fluctuations in the price of gold can reflect changes in demand associated with any of these uses, as well as changes in supply. In monitoring the price of gold, the Federal Reserve must attempt to interpret which of these factors is responsible for its fluctuations at any point in time. One of the ways we do this is by consulting other indicators of market sentiment. A number of measures of expected future inflation in the United States, including measures taken from inflation-protected bonds and surveys of consumers and professional forecasters, have been well contained. Accordingly, increases in the price of gold do not appear to reflect increases in the expected future of U.S. inflation. " - Ben Bernanke

More Mutual Assured Destruction from Ber Bernanke: "Without addressing every specific item, I believe that the release of much of the information requested would inhibit the policymaking process or reduce the effectiveness of policy and thus would not be in the public interest."

In other news Dow Jones, New York Times, the Associated Press and Reuters all have enjoined Bloomberg in demanding that Federal Court uphold the previous decision by the NY Supreme Court, seeking the Fed to disclose confidential bail out information.

The question now: where does the latest batch of good "bailout" news come from?

Since there is no volume this week and most players are out of the market for the rest of the year, the Goldman Squid Desk is busy again studying the books of its biggest clients, looking for outsized put or call positions in individual stocks. As usual, we find sudden shanks or unexpected bottlerocket runs as Goldman extracts its usual pound of flesh out of its customers.

With UBS out, and CS to follow, how the hell will the ultra upper middle class continue not paying their taxes?

A month ago Zero Hedge dubbed Gramm-Leach-Bliley the worst Bill ever passed. Its passage, coupled with a bunch of insane money printing leprechauns, presaged the ultimate collapse of Lehman, and was the main reason why capitalism nearly died last year (and why contrary to all you hear, is still in critical care). Yet from mere grumblings a month ago, the chorus of voices calling for a  repeal of G-L-B, and a renewal of Glass-Steagall has reached a crescendo, and today Majority leader Steny Hoyer said that the renewal of the Glass-Steagall act was a distinct possibility.

XOM is the world's best investor in the energy business, and has a multi-decade track record and the returns on capital to prove it. This is undeniable. But, Exxon looks out 20 years when evaluating acquisitions and investments. Natural gas investors should not look too much into this bet, because Exxon's time horizon is longer than most of our careers, and perhaps lives, will be.

"Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes receded one point to 16 in December as continued weakness in the economy and job markets weighed on consumers’ potential home buying plans, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today.The December HMI fell one point to 16, its lowest point since June of this year. Two out of three component indexes also were down, with a one-point decline to 16 registered for current sales conditions and a two-point decline to 26 registered for sales expectations in the next six months. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged for a third consecutive month, at 13." - National Association Of Home Builders

When Dubai World black swanned global investors last month with what amounts to be a reported $80 Billion in debt liabilities, it sent shivers down the spine of many a financial manager and stock trader. For those who were paying attention, Dubai’s troubled assets were no surprise, it was simply a matter of time. Oft repeated by contrarian analysts and investors like Dr. Doom Marc Faber, Gerald Celente, Jim Rogers, and Karl Denninger, the mathematical certainty of the economic crisis would play out - eventually.

Nothing too secret here: banks are willing to wager the systemic stability so they can get another bonus payment before everything hits the fan next year. What happens when (not if) TARP is needed again? Well, these banks will have to nationalized, or else there will be a revolution. And these banks know this, so they would rather cash in at least one more bonus after which who the hell cares.