Archive - Feb 23, 2009 - Story

The VIX chart below indicates that the downtrend from the November high, the 55-dma and the interim high from February 2 have all converged in the 47.15-49.54 range. The market has unsuccessfully tried to break above the 50 top over the past week. The Jan 28 - Feb 13 lows are all against the 76.4 retrace of the bounce from the Jan 2 low, and a closing break of this resistance level would be significant. In Elliott Wave terms, we are in the beginning of the 5th wave of a sequence starting in May 2008.

Previous dividend $0.38. Gives some amusing arguments about why dividend is getting whacked.

Also lots of chatter about JPM's "fortress balance sheet." Ahem, shorters are already crossing the moats.

Previous dividend $0.38. Gives some amusing arguments about why dividend is getting whacked.

Also lots of chatter about JPM's "fortress balance sheet." Ahem, shorters are already crossing the moats.

Not a lot of commentary needed here although the shout out to Gasparino by analyst Itay Michaeli deserves at least 10 brownie points. One can only imagine if GM had a research department what they would have to say about Citi's stock price target. But it would probably look like this, taken verbatim from the GM report:

"Given GM’s [CITI's] complex restructuring and Chapter 11 risk, valuing the stock remains very fluid. We value the shares off an out of court workout simulation consistent with GM’s [CITI's] 2012 plan."

Where is the Cristal?

Developing Story: Los Angeles Times reports Yellowstone Club regular Peter Chernin is leaving Rupert Murdoch's News Corp media empire.

The Vice Chairman of Doom, Nassim Taleb, was very eloquent today, claiming the next Black Swan event would be "for us to emerge out of this unscathed and return to normalcy. Compared with the Great Depression, this crisis is very different, and it requires much more drastic action.”

The Vice Chairman of Doom, Nassim Taleb, was very eloquent today, claiming the next Black Swan event would be "for us to emerge out of this unscathed and return to normalcy. Compared with the Great Depression, this crisis is very different, and it requires much more drastic action.”

Developing Story: statement out of Quadrangle Group.

Steve Rattner will be replaced by Michael Huber and Joshua Steiner who will serve as co-presidents.

Things in creditcardville are very, very ugly. The latest datapoint comes from American Express which will pay cardholders $300 each to close accounts so the lender can reduce the risk of defaults.

Developing bombshell: David Faber reporting that AIG has retained Weil Gotshal ahead of a possible bankruptcy filing this weekend. The reason is that the company will allegedly post a $60 billion loss, which will result in the usual cycle of credit downgrades, collateral postings, more capital needed to survive, and yet another mega systemic if not shock then question mark. Poor Geithner is likely about to follow Stamatis' example and just call it a day.

Stamatis Molaris, CEO of Excel Maritime just called it quits. The executive decided that dealing with ungrateful charters who are paying willy-nilly whatever they see fit is just not worth the trouble. The 45 year old Greek also resigned as President and Director.

Turns out NY AG Cuomo is pretty smart: he is seeking a court order that will force Thain to testify as to what really happened in early December when Merrill bonuses were paid out ahead of posting a huge loss, or otherwise he will hold the former Merrill chief contempt and possible further legal escalation. Thain has claimed he is worried he would be sued by BofA if he does talk to Cuomo, so the fan of gold-plated commodes is between a rock and very angry attorney general.

Odd news of the day: Russian General Nikolai Makarov was quoted on Interfax as saying Russia is closely watching the militarization of the Arctic circle, "as glob

Here come more scandals. Bloomberg is reporting that Quadrangle founder Steve Rattner, as extensively speculated here and elsewhere, is joining the U.S.