Archive - Mar 30, 2009 - Story

Just released a congressional letter signed by the jolly Chairman of the House Committee on Financial Services, Barney Frank and the one and only Chairman of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, [and assorted donations by A.I.G.] Chris Dodd.

Oil closed out the month on a down slope, tumbling on the strengthening of the dollar and a weaker outlook for equities. On a larger scale, the story with oil over the part 3 months or so has been the larger macro forces completely overwhelming the oil-specific supply and demand issues. For example, the market has largely been unresponsive to OPEC's desperate attempts to prop up oil prices; currently, it's estimated to be running under capacity by ~6MM barrels.

Oil closed out the month on a down slope, tumbling on the strengthening of the dollar and a weaker outlook for equities. On a larger scale, the story with oil over the part 3 months or so has been the larger macro forces completely overwhelming the oil-specific supply and demand issues. For example, the market has largely been unresponsive to OPEC's desperate attempts to prop up oil prices; currently, it's estimated to be running under capacity by ~6MM barrels.

Ingersoll Rand released a doozy of a statement after hours today. The maker of refrigeration equipment and other assorted industrial equipment must be feeling the recessionary pinch: the company announced its Q1 sales would drop to $2.9 billion, a 27% drop, and also a substantial drop from earlier guidance of $3.1-3.2 billion. This would translate into a loss per share of around -$0.15. Indicatively, consensus estimates were for $3.13 billion in revenue and (0.01) EPS.

Zero Hedge is starting a daily comprehensive credit market summary compliments of the good folks at Credit Derivatives Research (much more useful daily commentary and analysis can be found at the site). We hope our readers find it useful.

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Hugo Benziger, Chief Risk Officer of DB, spoke today at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, saying "we are in the middle of [the crisis]".

CNBC just out: The First Portfolio Manager, who today also became the First HR Manager of General Motors, is quoted as saying he wants to split GM into a "Good" GM and "Bad" GM, thus cementing his spot as The First Company Ethics Arbitrator. Not sure what exactly would fall into "Bad" GM, but we have our money on the Pontiak Aztec making the list. Lastly, in yet another total shift in strategy, the administration was quoted as saying bankruptcy is currently the preferred outcome for the Detroit automaker.

Must be a slow day on CNBC which just had a special on strippers. Of particular interest, CNBC profiles (in)famous Randi Newton, who has seems to relish the limelight of a laid off former Morgan Stanley analyst. Apparently the media goes apeshit for women with pouty looks and fake breasts. (The irony of Zero Hedge devoting a post to this is not lost)

Just got home from a lovely day filled with interviews.

Must be a slow day on CNBC which just had a special on strippers. Of particular interest, CNBC profiles (in)famous Randi Newton, who has seems to relish the limelight of a laid off former Morgan Stanley analyst. Apparently the media goes apeshit for women with pouty looks and fake breasts. (The irony of Zero Hedge devoting a post to this is not lost)

Just got home from a lovely day filled with interviews.

Prologis European Properties (PEPR), a fund investing in Prologis developments, just got the Moody's axe, which cut its rating from Baa2 to Baa3, with a negative outlook.

The tentacles of the Yellowstone Club debacle are spreading. Edra, the former wife of Tim Blixseth who smartly managed to transfer ownership of the bankrupt and lawsuit-festering resort to her as part of their separation, filed for personal bankruptcy late on Friday. The reason for filing was to prevent some of her property from being seized by creditors.

After getting clobbered the week before, the USD climbed back last week. The market viewed this as either a) a sign that the US has bottomed out or b) that investors are piling back into the "safe haven" of the USD due to another bout of risk aversion. Both sound like BS answers (especially because their contradictory nature). Below is EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD for last week.

After getting clobbered the week before, the USD climbed back last week. The market viewed this as either a) a sign that the US has bottomed out or b) that investors are piling back into the "safe haven" of the USD due to another bout of risk aversion. Both sound like BS answers (especially because their contradictory nature). Below is EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD for last week.

The TARP exodus continues. The latest departure, according to the WSJ, is GS advisor Byron Trott, who is departing the Masters of the Universe and will start his own merchant banking firm focusing on family-controlled and entrepreneurial companies. Trott used to be Goldman's vice-chairman of Investment Banking and ran the company's Chicago office.

Interesting report out of Deutsche Bank over the weekend, presenting hypothetical upcoming current-to-trough declines in real estate prices, based on DB's proprietary Home Price Appreciation (HPA) model outlook for the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). While the full report should be read in its entirety, a good summary is the chart below which demonstrates (in the right most column) the worst-case modelled downside to home prices in the 20 worst U.S. MSAs.