Archive - Jan 8, 2010 - Story

The chart below demonstrates the plunge in the civilian labor force participation: in December 153.059 million were in the labor force, 15.267 million were unemployed and 83.865 million were not in the labor force: a 64.6% participation rate. Now keep in mind the 5 year average participation rate has been 65.9% (including December's data, 66% excluding). That is a 3.073 million delta, and the definition of labor force attachment is probably a loose combination of government semantics. Had those 3 million still be in the labor force (and, of course, not employed), the number of unemployed workers would have been 18.340 million, which in turn would result in an unemployment rate of 12%.

Nonfarm payroll employment edged down (-85,000) in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent. In December, both the number of unemployed persons, at 15.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 10.0 percent, were unchanged. Among the unemployed, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up, reaching 6.1 million. In December, 4 in 10 unemployed workers were jobless for 27 weeks or longer. About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, an increase of 578,000 from a year earlier. Among the marginally attached, there were 929,000 discouraged workers in December, up from 642,000 a year earlier. In December, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.2 hours. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from -111,000 to -127,000, and the change for November was revised from -11,000 to +4,000. In December, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $18.80. The civilian labor force participation rate fell to 64.6 percent in December. The employment-population ratio declined to 58.2 percent.

"8:30: Employment report for Dec…will payrolls rise or fall? GS: -25k, median forecast (of 76): flat, ranging from -100k to +85k; last -11k. Economists are evenly divided on this question as last month’s near stabilization and ongoing improvement in claims for unemployment insurance has prompted half of the forecasters to predict an increase for December. In our case, we think the drop in continuing claims, which has historically been helpful in forecasting payroll changes, should be heavily discounted as the sharp rise in workers receiving extended benefits indicates that much of this decline is simply the expiration of eligibility for the regular 26-week program" - Goldman Sachs

• Asian stocks gain, led by retailers, Japanese exporters; Copper declines.
• Beijing's per capita GDP expected to top $10,000.
• China central bank hiked interest rate on its 3-month T-bills by about 0.04 point, to 1.3684%
• China's exports may post first gain in 14 months, highlighting Yuan policy.
• Gold declines for second day as dollar gain curbs alternative asset demand.
• India expects GDP to grow at 7-7.5% for the fiscal year ending March 2010.
• Office vacancies in the U.S. surged to a 15-year high in the Q4-- Reis Inc.

RANsquawk 8th January Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.