Archive - Nov 18, 2010 - Story

It was only a matter of time before some entrepreneur decided to assist Bernanke in adding his 2 cents (or more) to the M1 courtesy of the latest TSA megaflop. Here is a look at the shirts the will soon grace every airport terminal across the country, courtesy of ETSY.

Must. not. let. price. break. $35.

Yesterday we all had the displeasure of reading the latest piece of sycophantic brownnosing by what has become everyone's most hated hypocrite. Today, the brilliant Sean Corrigan of Diapason Securities strikes again with the letter that should have been written. We hope someone of greater repute (not to mention circulation, reach and net income) than the NYT will grow some balls and post this.

In his latest letter, in addition to again broaching the subject of the upcoming Eurozone collapse, SocGen's Albert Edwards shares his increasingly high level of conviction that the US will slip into recession and also explains why Ben Bernanke's trashing of the dollar is just a "devious ploy" to force a real exchange rate revaluation on the Chinese via rampant food price inflation. Keep in mind, in China food prices are actually important, noted and measured, and were the primary reason for the October spike in inflation which oddly caught so many by surprise, probably more for the reason that the government actually agreed to disclose it. In essence, Albert argues that the Chairman has raised the stakes on the global monetary game to such a level, that he risks social discontent either in the US or in China, or both, should China refuse to blink in what has quickly become the most important game of chicken in the history of modern economics.

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX – 18/11/10

Tuesday's senatorial farce hearing in which fraudclosure was brushed under the rug under the vigilant stare of one Chriss Dodd is being repeated today, this time in Congress, titled: "Robo-Signing, Chain of Title, Loss Mitigation and Other Issues in Mortgage Servicing." Those wishing to waste some time may do so at the following link. As Maxine Waters is present, the farce will be complete.

After posting an all time low rate of 4.17% in the week ended November 11, the 30 Year Freddie Mac Fixed-Rate Mortgage has surged by 22 bps to 4.39%, the highest average rate since August 19, before QE2 had started to be priced in. This is a direct reaction to the recent drubbing in the 10 Year bond which continues to see an unwind of the QE2 frontrunning trade. Which brings the Fed to the key dilemma: does it focus once again on reducing interest rates, as a continuing widening in mortgages will make home purchases increasingly more problematic, foreclosure crisis aside, or does it persist in sponsoring the imaginary "wealth effect" by pushing stocks ever higher. It seems the inflection point where investors would buy both bonds and stocks with the same fervor has passed, and the time for Bernanke to choose one of the two has come. Of course, a simple resolution would be to start leaking QE3. And with the municipal collapse continuing today, the Fed's choice may soon be moot.

It seems more Wall Street settlements are coming (because nobody ever goes to prison for fraud in this country). ProPublica's Jake Bernstein and Jesse Eisinger report that the SEC is investigating Citigroup's role in a $1 billion deal that the bank created in the run-up to the financial crisis. The agency is looking at whether Citi improperly pushed an independent manager to put specific assets into the deal, according to people familiar with the probe. Of course, we expect that if this is indeed the case, then Citi is currently in negotiations with the SEC to have a settlement ready in hand the second there is a formal announcement.

The Federal Reserve is an example not just of run-of-the-mill hubris but of the far more profound Pathology of Power. The rule of law has been supplanted in the U.S. by self-serving propaganda campaigns serving State and financial Elites: this is the Pathology of Power. The Federal Reserve is an instructive example because it is so blatant. Despite the dearth of evidence that goosing the stock market actually generates a "wealth effect" which "trickles down" from the top 10% who own the vast majority of equities to the bottom 90%, the Fed has waged a ceaseless propaganda campaign claiming this policy goal is now essential for the nation's well-being. No mention of its positive effect on Wall Street; cui bono (to whose benefit?) indeed.

Jeremy Grantham, who has been rather vocal in his condemnation of the Fed recently, and has been rather lukewarm in his endorsement of equities as an asset class, has released an updated (as of Oct 31) estimate for 7 Year returns by asset class. And it has bad news for pension funds which have a rather high bogey of about 8% per year. If Grantham is correct the 'new normal' (which is really the normal normal but with the cheap credit spigot taken away due to a new deleveraging regime) also means that pension fund actuarial models have to be scrapped as they will likely not be able to attain the kinds of returns needed to keep them solvent based on capital appreciation expectations. Where Grantham sees the best return potential is in international and emerging equities, presumably on the assumption that decoupling will take place. On the other hand, many are increasingly seeing the possibility of a China topping as a major risk factor. While Grantham is bearish on small cap US equities and sees just a modest outperformance of large caps, what he hates the most are all bonds, where in four out of five categories he see a negative 7 year return. Perhaps it is time for a Rosie-Grantham round table.

Following one of the biggest drops ever in the Empire Manufacturing Index a few days ago, it is only completely logical that the Philly Fed would follow through with one of the biggest jumps in history. The Philly Fed prints at 22.5 versus expectations of 5, and a previous read of 1. GM, which was about to take out all the bids at 34.60 pre-news, the US Treasury, GETCO, and nervous flippers, all thank the Philly Fed. Then again, a look behind the headlines indicates that the scariest trend: that of margin collapse, is in full force, as the prices paid-received margin is over 40. From the release: "Price increases for inputs remain relatively widespread this month. Thirty eight percent of the firms reported higher prices for inputs this month. The prices paid index, which had increased in the previous month, increased 3 points. On balance, firms continued to report declines in prices for their own manufactured goods: Slightly more firms reported decreases in prices (16 percent) than reported increases (14 percent). The prices received index remained negative for the sixth consecutive month, although it increased 7 points this month."

WSJ headline "SEC Files Civil Lawsuit Against Rattner In Pension Fund Kickback Case" We are shocked someone is punished for (alleged) criminal activity. Shocked.

As Wall Street finally takes its Teleprompter General prescribed daily dose of Lithium, and the euphoria is back with a vengeance, as suddenly all the troubles seem so far away, here is David Rosenberg who again battles the prevailing mainstream mania (of the day, tomorrow who knows) and continues to see "Trouble Ahead."

Human traders finally appear on the NYSE floor for the first time in years to allow the biggest flip in history to begin. And courtesy of the green shoe, Wall Street's underwriters are about to make $2 billion. Free lunch for everyone. Ironically, Getco's DMM status being fully tested as HFT moves entirely to trading GM. Some very appropriate commentary from a desk: "20% OF ISSUE SIZE TRADED IN 10 MINUTES. THIS IS THE MOST AMAZING CHURN I HAVE SEEN IN MY LIFE."

For a stark demonstration of market momentum euphoria look no further than the AAII weekly bullish/neutral/bearish sentiment. After hitting 57.56% in the week ended November 11, the highest since 2007, bullish sentiment plunged by 17.56%, to 40.00%, the biggest drop since January 2009, and the fourth biggest shift in sentiment since 2006. Alas, this is the kind of bipolar sentiment shift that will accompany a market in which everything continues to correlate with near precision to the dollar, and in which no bad news matter until they matter, and from all in buying the mood shifts to relentless selling.