Archive - Nov 6, 2010 - Story

With republicans back in control, it was only a matter of time before the military-industrial complex reminded the world of its existence. It took about 72 hours: republican senator Lindsay Graham, who apparently has not received the memo that all modern wars are now waged in binary, and are won by those who can push the FX bid/ask the furthest and the fastest away from equilibrium, spoke at the Halifax International Security Forum, giving a very distinct taste of what US foreign policy is about to look like: "Iran is a major threat to any conceivable world order" and that he sees an almost inevitable confrontation with Iran. As AP reports, the South Carolina Republican saw the United States going to war with
the Islamic republic "not to just neutralize their nuclear program, but
to sink their navy, destroy their air force and deliver a decisive blow
to the Revolutionary Guard, in other words neuter that regime." And the Democrats, still in shock over their recent pummelling, will likely not have the resolve to respond palliatively to such warmongering, which they likely deem as supported by the broad population: "US Democratic Senator Mark Udall, who joined Graham during a panel
discussion at the forum in Halifax, Nova Scotia, urged continued
sanctions against Iran. But he also noted that "every option is on the
table," a thinly veiled reference to possible military action." And just when the world was getting along so well, and all the international bickering appeared to be taking place over various Forex terminals...

As a disgusted and powerless nation (save for a few irrelevant, ex-Enron consultants) is drowning its post-QE2 monetary sorrows in Blue Label courtesy of a recently, if very temporarily, discovered wealth effect, we present a comedic interlude which presents (in proper chronological order for facility of reading) the email chain that culminated with the decision to embark on the QE2.

While we approach the topic of Paul Krugman with the same eagerness one approaches a clogged up, never cleaned, bathroom at a frat party that is about 50 years past its due date, (pretty much like Keynesianism) this one just put us over the top. In his latest pointless drivel on the economy, instead of reverting to his usual mode of praying to John Keynes, bitching at those who dare call for accountability and the punishment of all those, such as Krugman, responsible for what is now a $4 trillion taxpayer monetary bailout tab, and begging for trillions, then quadrillions, then quintillions, then an infinite amount of money, the Op-Ed writer has instead decided to start a mudslinging campaign against none other than Jim Rogers, the co-founder of George Soros' Quantum Fund, who has been pretty much spot on with his calls for decades.

In the realm of unintended consequences, one of the side effects of QE2 is that going forward US economic data will be broadly ignored from a global macro standpoint: as bad economic data is masked by expectations of further Fed involvement, and further Fed inflation stimulation, while any actual improvement is misperceived as a one-time response from a liquidity kicker, the rest of the world will no longer have an anchored trade and thus FX view based on incremental data developments, be they good or bad, as an objective distinction is now impossible. What this means practically is still too early to determine, as the world has never existed in such an information limbo, but the closest approximation of the perversions to the very matrix of cause and effect is that the market now sells good news and buys bad news with impunity. This is a recipe for disaster. It also means that with the US economy irrelevant as an indicator of pretty much anything, decision-makers will be forced to look elsewhere for catalysts. BNP Paribas has done of the better summaries of precisely this sad state: "The Fed has acknowledged that there is substantial slack in the US economy indicating that it will take potentially years to bring the unemployment rate down to levels associated with full employment. Hence, a strong number will still leave the Fed committed to the USD600bln asset purchase it announced Wednesday. A weak labour market report will make the market assume that the Fed might have to do even more asset purchases. Hence it will not be US data disturbing the risk on trade, the trouble will likely come from Asia or Europe." What we believe this means, is that very soon the dynamics of globalized economics, and of stock markets, will be defined by the polar opposites of an emerging market bubble (Asia), and a developed economy, floundering deeper into fiscal austerity and borderline insolvency (Europe). Thus soon the ideological tug of war will be one of whether the Asian bubble implodes first, or whether it will be preceded by the failure of peripheral European countries.

As Goldman's David Kostin points out, this week's key capital flow observation had little to do with QE2 (which at $600 billion over 8 months, was actually less than the anticipated $500 billion over 6 months), which had a far greater impact on commodity prices as Zero Hedge had expected (and ES was down in gold for the week, and continues to be very much down for the year), and all to do with the Fed's "non-announcement" that it would allow financial firms to recommence dividends. This resulted in a spike in financial shares, which jumped the most in the prior week. In light of Friday afternoon's repeat announcement that a Federal agency (this time the Chicago FHLB) was following in the footsteps of the FRBNY, and claiming Rep and Warranty fraud over $375 billion in RMBS, banks won't be depleting their reserve funds any time soon. But all is fair in war and industry rotation, even if it makes no sense. More to the point, even Goldman advises clients this as nothing but a headfake: "We currently recommend a neutral weighting in Financials although we recognize the positive impact a round of dividend hikes will have on share prices. Our concern relates to the lack of loan demand, slim net interest margins as the yield curve flattens, restrictions on business activity from “Volcker Rule,” Basel 3 capital requirements, and the impact of Fin Reg." But since when did fundamentals matter? These days it is all a question of fund flows, typically those originating from the Federal Reserve.

The three man who destroyed Keynesianism discuss the origins, history, and future of the Federal Reserve. Watch Greenspan, Bernanke and Corrigan discuss the last 30 years of America's monetarist system.