Archive - Dec 22, 2010 - Story

After WTI passed the $90 barrier with firm determination, as we highlighted earlier, the most recent DOE Crude Oil Inventories number confirms that the far larger than expected draw down is accelerating. As readers will recall, after last week's massive drawdown of 9.854 million barrels which was the largest in 9 years, today's number was another stunner, coming in at 5.333 MM on expectations of 3.4 MM. The result: WTI spikes and is last seen at $90.64. And as a reminder every $1 rise in oil decreases U.S. GDP by $100 billion per year and every 1 cent increase in gasoline decreases U.S. consumer disposable income by about $600 million per year. The move in oil in the past week alone has almost entirely wiped out the most recent stimulus. Furthermore, as we suggest earlier, now that $90 is in the history books, $100 is coming, and may be here within a few weeks. At that point Bernanke may have some problems explaining how he is "100% confident" that the surge in gasoline prices is completely and totally not as a result of his deranged genocidal tendencies.Don't worry though, hedge fund managers around the world will be more than happy to afford the surging prices. Remember: wealth effect!

Stocks are up which means another fundamental data indicator must have missed expectations (following the earlier GDP miss). Sure enough, the NAR just reported November existing home sales, which came at 4.68 million units, a slight improvement to the almost all time lowest number posted in October (4.43 million), a miss to expectations of 4.75 million, and 27.9% off the cyclical peak of 6.49 million from November 2009, when the first-time buyer tax credit expired, and was shockingly not extended. The data follows this morning atrocious MBA numbers which showed a plunge of 18.6% in mortgage applications, and 24.6% drop in refinancings. But if you listen to Goldman, the recent surge in mortgage rates is actually beneficial for everyone involved and just buy the f#&$ing dips! Sure enough, the ever cheerful Larry Yun had this to say: "Continuing gains in home sales are encouraging, and the positive impact of steady job creation will more than trump some negative impact from a modest rise in mortgage interest rates, which remain historically favorable." Um, continuing gains from all time record low levels? Also, the part-time job creation which is the only thing that is being created on steady basis is sure to be the ground for a fertile surge in home prices. And with that the sarcasm is off.

Last week, we pointed out when the BDIY dipped below 2000 for the first time since August. In the next three days, the index slide has accelerated and after dropping 3% just overnight, is back to 1830, just 130 points away from the 2010 lows printed in July. And while the index topped in early September following a brief and uninspired climb, it has since been a one way downward pointing slope. Whether the BDIY is a leading indicator to anything is debatable: some believe it is a completely irrelevant indicator. Others disagree. A rather strong case for the former camp was made last week by Nordea which demonstrated, in its chart of the week, the average speed of its vessel fleet. One thing is certain: for whatever reason, demand for trans-Pacific cargo shipments is once again plunging.

We find few things quite as entertaining these days as watching Jan Hatzius, and the entire Goldman economic team, squirm, as he is forced to admit (repeatedly) that economic data does not support his suddenly ridiculous outlook on the economy. And following numerous mea culpas after the November NFP report, here is his latest admission that not all is quite as rosy as he hopes it should be. 'The Great God Offset strikes again as weaker growth in consumption of
services offsets most of the expected increase in inventory
accumulation. So we end up with a GDP picture for Q3 that undoes most of
last month's upward revision to domestic final sales.. Because the inventory accumulation rate now looks even more rapid
than before, this will likely be a bigger drag in this quarter or the
next."

As West Texas Intermediate is now holding steady over the psychological barrier of $90, more speculators will shift their attention to this latest commodities market, which rumor has it has not been cornered by JP Morgan just yet. As Bernanke's liquidity gushes with no sign of stoppage, expect to see a prompt move into triple digit territory here. For those seeking a good overview of what is happening in he crude space, we provide the following summary note from FMX connect...

Disappointing Goldman which had expected a far higher number, the third Q3 GDP revision came at 2.6%, 0.1% higher than the second, but lower than the 2.8% consensus. In other words, the PCE surge which drove stocks higher on the second GDP revision has now been eliminated post re-revision, yet its impact of spiking stocks back then naturally lingers: surely our ministry of truth has learned from the best. And, as we expected the inventory artificial growth push continues to accelerate, after there was a substantial drop in the far more important Personal Consumption component which misses not only consensus of 2.9%, but the second revision of 2.8%, coming at 2.4%. From the BEA:  "The "third" estimate of the third-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.1 percentage point, or $1.1 billion, higher than the "second" estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting an upward revision to private inventory investment that was largely offset by a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures." And even uglier: corporate profits were up a meager 0.2%, compared to expectations of 1.3%, compared to a previous revision estimate of 1.0%. We are confident Jan Hatzius will spin this favorably shortly, and will bring you his "analysis" asap.

• IMF announces it has concluded its gold sales (IMF)
• Euro helped by report China will buy Portugal's debt (Reuters)
• Huge South Korea Drill Likely to Infuriate North (Reuters)
• And wristslaps for all: Deutsche Bank to Pay $554 Million in Tax Shelter Case (Bloomberg)
• Another proposal to use a firehose to kill those pesky CDS speculators: Derivative Blitz Needed to Tame Anarchic Bonds (Bloomberg)
• China Inflation Risk Leads to Asia's Worst Bond Returns (Bloomberg)
• Does a Low VIX Signal Danger? (Barrons)

The key events overnight shaping this morning's futures picture revolve around the re-revised Q3 US GDP number (consensus of 2.8%), rumors of China buying Portuguese bonds (again), European spreads which are once again widening (here we go again again), and a surge in Japanese imports resulting in a cut to Japan's GDP forecasts.

After this morning’s report of a sharp setback in mortgage loan applications (mortgage applications tumbled 18.6% last week as refinancing applications plummeted 24.6%. ) we have the third round on third-quarter GDP and sales and prices of existing homes… There is a modest $1.5-$2.5 billion POMO later.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 22/12/10