Archive - Feb 13, 2010 - Story

An article written by University of Tennessee professor John R Garrett, "Monetary Policy and Expectations: Market-Control Techniques and the Bank of England, 1925-1931" which describes in exquisite detail the gold falsification measures undertaken by the Bank of England in the interwar period in order to impact interest rates in a favorable direction, performed with the full criminal complicity of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, may mean paranoid "gold bugs" could soon be forever absolved of their "tin hat" wearing status as outright gold, and other data, manipulation by a major central bank is now proven beyond doubt. The implications regarding the possibility of comparable deceitful and treasonous acts by modern central bankers are staggering.

Yes, the deficit situation is unsustainable—long-term—but, if the euro is in a free fall and money needs to find a safe haven, aren’t USTs the place to go, short-term? All kinds of GIPSIs, STUPIDs ad PIIGS are under pressure in Europe and this is unlikely to stop on Monday.

It has long been discussed, both on Zero Hedge and elsewhere, that the massive budget deficit over the next 10 years will have to be funded with an unprecedented amount of new Treasury issuance. Various estimates project that absent a dramatic increase in yields, especially in the mid and longer dated side of the curve, there will simply not be enough demand for treasuries to fund the budget shortfalls just in the upcoming year (let alone the next ten). Furthermore, it is known that governmental estimates put early to mid 2011 total US debt estimates in the $14 trillion ballpark, courtesy of the just signed into law debt ceiling raise to $14.3 trillion. Lastly, the Treasury has made it well known that it intends to push debt issuance away from Bills and into Bonds and Notes, with the goal of increasing the average maturity of new debt to 5-6 years, which also would inevitably increase the average cost of Treasury borrowings as existing debt, of which 40% matures in under a year, has to be rolled into longer-dated debt. We present a recent monthly analysis of core Treasury receipts and outlays, highlighting the minor role that interest payments play currently. Yet should there be a dramatic or even gradual increase in rates, the monthly cost of funding of the ever increasing debt burden will soon become unbearable. A black swan scenario, which introduces an average interest rate reversion to those dark early 1980's days, when USTs carried interest of 10% and over, will see a 424% increase in monthly interest expenditures, which will push the annual interest expense as a percentage of core Treasury Deposits from the current 10% to nearly 50%, plunging America into a debt funding spiral.

Do Goldman employees deserve any compensation, much less the $16 billion paid out in salaries and bonuses in 2009 when one considers that the firm would not only have no money to pay, but would be defunct had the US taxpayer not stepped in and bailed them out? Should this money have been used to prepay the firm's $20 billion TLGP exposure instead, thus truly making the firm independent of taxpayer support, instead of just claims to Goldman's public funding independence? Will the wave of public anger, now that President Obama has suddenly and inexplicably done a 180 degree turn and sides with the middle-class instead of the financial executives, take Goldman down at the next black swan occurrence? Is Goldman hypocritical in claiming it did not need a bailout after it rushed to become a bank holding company? Is Goldman a doomed business model which relies solely on the existence of the "greater fool" to sell to? Will its monopolist and ever-larger dominant status result in an implosion in the financial industry (especially with the DOJ continuing to deny there is any anti-trust problem)? All these questions and more seek answers in the just released Part Two of the PBS series "Is taxpayer money behind profits at Goldman Sachs."

We recommend watching Part One of the PBS series in advance of the clip below.

Whether you love or hate Eliot Spitzer, the former New York Attorney General and Governor of New York State usually introduces perspectives as both a former politician and activist which are relevant, and in our day and age unprecedented Wall Street-D.C. corruption, very necessary. His daily appearances on the Dylan Ratigan show provide a much needed exposition on the extreme commingling of power and financial interests, that has become the norm as an ultra-small conformist minority in America controls the vast majority of the wealth of not only this country, but the entire world. The Fora.tv presentation below from Spitzer's recent appearance at the Commonwealth Club provides a crash course to anyone who wishes to catch up with the views of the disgraced governor who has slowly attempted to restore his public image as a political and financial activist. Can he restore his image? If he continues to expose the glaring corruption and brings attention to the at times criminal conflicts of interest, we believe the answer is yes.

Goldman could just as easily recap their entire market outlook in 8 simple words, "volume low, market up, volume high, market down" but since they are expected to provide extended sell-side service in exchange for everyone routing their trades through Redi, Sonar, Sonar Dark, OmtimIS, 4CAST, PortX, Piccolo, Navigator, Apollo, Sigma, FX trader, not to mention the hundreds of fixed income and commodity flow and prop traders (the two are interchangeable at GS), this is how Goldman quantifies the current, indisputably "cheap" market:

• Performance
  S&P 500 rose 1.5% this week. The Utilities sector was the worst performing sector, falling 0.1%. Materials was the best performing sector, rising 3.7%. We expect S&P 500 to rise to 1300 by midyear (+20.5%), before ending 2010 at 1250 (+15.9%)
• S&P 500 Earnings
  Our top-down EPS forecasts of $76 and $90 for 2010 and 2011 reflect +33% and +20% growth, respectively. Our pre-provision and write-down EPS forecasts are $81 for 2010 and $91 for 2011. Bottom-up consensus forecasts a 39% increase in 2010 to $79, and a 20% increase in 2011 to $95.
• Valuation
  Top-down, the S&P 500 trades at an NTM P/E of 14.3X (13.3X on pre-provision EPS). Bottom-up, it trades at NTM P/E of 13.7X and LTM P/B of 2.3X

And here are the charts that validate the popular delusion.

One daunting aspect of Zero Hedge is the simply explosive mass of content that the site distributes. On weekdays, and counting only the front page (and therefore only Senior Staff writings and an occasional guest post or two), Zero Hedge publishes between 25 and 35 primary articles per day usually ranging from 100 to over 4000 words each. Our contributors add another 5 to 15 pieces daily, depending on how much is going on in the world, or how much post-close drinking went on the day before. Unlike most finance sites, Zero Hedge also prints content on Saturday and Sunday, as well as market holidays. Last year, on Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, New Year's Eve, New Year's Day, Zero Hedge was spitting out stories like an unemployed, single, Canadian atheist. Whatever conclusions you might (reasonably) draw about our social lives and sanity when reflecting on these facts, what you cannot but agree with is that Zero Hedge produces a metric asston of original content 365 days a year. (We can say that now that our one year anniversary has just passed).