Archive - Mar 2010 - Story

It had been a little quiet without Alan Grayson these past few months. Too quiet. The Florida Democrat is now back with a bang after sending a letter to the representatives of the AIG Credit Facility Trust demanding that all AIG emails over the past decade be made public, as well as all company models and internal accounting documents. Yet it is the flourish of the narrative, which reminds one of Dan Loeb in his iconoclastic prime that is the centerpiece of the most recent, and every other letter. Where else can you find pearls like: "It is beyond outrageous that this company, which taxpayers capitalized after Wall Street used it as a slush fund, hides nearly all relevant facts from its owners, the public." We are most enthused by Grayson (and others) finally picking up on a key theme - if you want something analyzed independently and objectively, just open it up to the broader public, and screw all corrupt internal commissions. Crowdsourcing is the only way to get anything done these days. Also, the crowd wonders, is it too late to replace the top two posts in the current administration with Grayson-Kaufman (in alphabetical order)?

• The start of the great unwind? JGB yield curve steepens asbig buyers faith dented (Reuters)
• Markets spooked as Greek rescue plan crumbles (Telegraph)
• Nobel winning economist extraordinaire responds: Steve Roach goes batty (NYT)... it's going to be a slow news OpEx
• Latvia government collapses amid economic crisis (Telegraph)
• China tries to cool yuan dispute with US (Reuters)
• Stop losses see Sterling heavy in European Trade (Market News)
• Lehman's auditor goes blind from all the cooking (Bloomberg)

• Asia stocks rise as US reports boost confidence in recovery; Yen weakens.
• Banks borrowed less from the Fed?s emergency lending program over the past week.
• Euro set for biggest weekly drop in six on concern Europe split by Greece.
• Nikkei hits sixth straight weekly gain, up 0.7% on week.
• US Treasury to sell $118B in notes.
• Papandreou races against time to cut borrowing costs as EU splits on aid.
• Supply of foreclosed homes on the rise again, putting pressure on home prices.

RANsquawk 19th March Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

At a time when our political and financial landscapes are littered with villains and those unwilling to take them on, it's refreshing to find someone in the halls of power that we can unabashedly celebrate.

Enter Sen. Ted Kaufman of Delaware. Kaufman, Joe Biden's longtime chief of staff who was appointed to serve out his old boss's term, was originally thought to be a Senate placeholder.

But, far from biding his time, Kaufman has emerged as one of the Senate's fiercest critics of Wall Street and a champion of the need to push for a serious rebooting of our financial system.

Permabull Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs surprises everyone by issuing yet another missive after being dead wrong on the Renminbi a month ago, and very vocally so. The surprise is not in his persistent frothiness (the man is a singularly male version of an undoubtedly female A. Joseph Cohen after all), or his attempt at mea culpa'ing (we wonder what sport instrument Roach would recommend using on Mr. O'Neill), but that Jim is still at Goldman after the entire Red Devils fiasco. Oh, and speaking of sport, O'Neill joins the Krugman-Schumer team in providing most unwelcome policy advice to China.

The Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia is about as direct as one can be in the following Bloomberg interview: "We should take out the baseball bat on Paul Krugman -- I
mean I think that [his] advice [to push China to revalue the Renminbi] is completely wrong.” Well, somebody had to finally say it. So instead of pointing the scapegoating finger somewhere else, which seems to be the norm these days (cue G-Pap and his quadrillionth repetition that Greece is perfectly solvent and that unless somebody bails him out (ignore the lack of logic for a second), he will start playing Russian roulette with a fully loaded gun), Roach looks in the mirror: "America does not have a China problem. America has a savings problem. America has the biggest savings shortfall of any leading country in modern history, When you don't have savings you have to run current account deficits to import surplus savings from abroad and run massive trade deficits to attract the capital... Isn't it the height of hypocrisy that America can articulate a particular position in its currency but the Chinese are not allowed to do that." Also some not so kind words about Senator Schumer: "He always has a view no matter where the Renminbi is, that it is 27.5% undervalued."

It seems it was just yesterday that Bernanke was on the edge of committing perjury and lying that the Federal Reserve of New York knew nothing about Lehman's "more peculiar" off balance sheet transactions. Oh wait, it was: as a reminder in his cross by Scott Garrett, the New Jersey representative asked whether the "Fed was aware of the Repo 105 and the accounting irregularities going on?"
Bernanke answers "No - they were hidden." Oops. Because a story just released by the Financial Times seems to indicate otherwise, and unless Merrill Lynch is lying out of their derriere, Mr. Bernanke should be immediately investigated for potential perjury before the American people. "Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Reserve officials were warned by [Merrill Lynch] that Lehman Brothers was incorrectly calculating a key measure of its financial health months before its collapse in 2008...In the account given by the Merrill officials, the SEC, the lead
regulator, and the New York Federal Reserve were given warnings about
Lehman’s balance sheet calculations as far back as March 2008."  Amusingly, the sole purpose why Merrill would rat out Lehman is to make its own disastrous situation more agreeable, as often happens when the rats realize the sinking of the ship is inevitable. Well, unlike Merrill, whose liquidity situation was equally as disastrous on the weekend of September 14th, which found a pressed suitor in the form of BofA (and its Fed/Goldman-puppet CEO Ken Lewis), Lehman was not quite so lucky (one wonders why). Yet the bigger issue is why does the Fed keep on lying to the American public without any trace of consequence? When will someone finally wake up and sue the Federal Reserve (and we don't mean FOIA), or at least slap a racketeering lawsuit on "those people?" Oh yeah, the market is up, American Idol is on TV, G-Pap has done all that was needed to (not) be bailed out, so all shall be well. This is better known as "if the other Ponzi dude was thrown in jail, you must acquit" defense.

Theflyonthewall.com, which is a news aggregator service (much like most of the blogosphere these days, but without the snarky commentary), and is hosted on Zero Hedge, has just seen a major driver of its business model cut off, after several banks just won an injunction that blocks Fly from notifying its clients when a bank may have issued a research event such as an Upgrade or, on those extremely rare occasions nowadays, Downgrade. The banks who feel violated by everyone getting access to information about their sellside detritus contemporaneously, not just wealthy accounts and wire services, are Barclays, Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch, and Morgan Stanley. As Bloomberg reports, "U.S. District Judge Denise Cote in New York today granted a request for an injunction sought by the three banks. They argued at a March trial that Theflyonthewall.com, a Summit, New Jersey- based firm with about 30 employees, wrongfully obtains and sells reports on changes to the banks’ stock evaluations." This is merely a case of picking on the weakest: the next ones to lose their First Amendment right will be, in order of importance, StreetAccount, Thomson Street Events, Briefing, and, ultimately Bloomberg. The reason: keep the market as two-tiered as possible so that clients of the above three banks (which list will likely expand promptly as more banks join in) have an upper hand over all the slower retail and algo operations. With this forced lag in information (which is a joke because anyone who cares, knows the second a research report goes public anyway), and with the ever increasing transaction times courtesy of nanosecond collocation facilities, soon the self-cannibalizing market will only rely on stealing money from those accounts who are still willing to participate in a market that is now split into two distinct groups: those who make money, and are clients of MS, ML and Lehman (and the rest of Wall Street), and everyone else. This is a huge hit for not just traditional media, but for the blogosphere as well, which revels in the freedom of not just ridiculing banks' (Merrill Lynch) upgrades of horrendously shitty companies (REITs), but enjoys doing so in real time. We expect that the next step is that any blog or medium that has any negative things to say about Merrill, MS or Barclays (pretty much most independent media), will be served with a summons as soon as any criticism is made public.

RANsquawk 18th March US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc.

A rumor is circulating that barely a month since the last hike, the Fed is about to hike the discount rate (which is completely irrelevant of course, due to the whole $1.2 trillion in excess reserves thing) as early as today. When aksed for commentary, the Fedspokesman had no comment.

In the aftermath of the Zachery Kouwe plagiarism fiasco, the last thing Andrew Ross Sorkin's Dealbook needs is another scandal. Yet this is precisely what may come out of a recent column by the TBTF author, in which ARS insinuated that Lehman whistleblower Matthew Lee came forth with incriminating Repo 105 evidence only after he was made aware he was about to be "downsized." The Columbia Journalism Review's Ryan Chittum debunks this story, after pointing out some potentially gross misrepresentations in the Sorkin column, which go to directly to motive and to the integrity behind Lee's actions. "The Times’s DealBook editor Andrew Ross Sorkin, who wrote the column, quotes the sources saying the whistle blower came forward only after “it became clear” he was to be replaced in his job. We’ll get to that peculiar phrasing in a minute, but the main problem is the Times story gives no indication that Lee was called for comment. In fact, he wasn’t called, according to Lee’s lawyer, Erwin Shustak, whom I talked to yesterday. “I’ve never spoken to the man (Sorkin) in my life,” Shustak says. “Nobody’s spoken to Matthew.” That doesn’t meet a basic fairness test. As it happens, Shustak tells us that Lee had no idea his job was in danger." If indeed Sorkin misstated facts, a retraction is the only recourse as the potential for legal escalation on all sides of the story is huge. We are confident that while to Lehman managing directors $50 billion may have been a drop in the ocean, legal prosecution going after either ARS (or Lee) to reclaim it in part (or in whole) will surely make the Dealbook editor's head spin, even after accounting for Paulson and Geithner's 10,000 purchases of TBTF each (exaggeration ours... we hope).

First 130 Congressmen, now Greece: the examples of people who have no idea what the definition of negotiating leverage means just don't stop. G-Pap has decided to go all in on 2-7off suit . The problem is everyone knows what his cards are, and his bluff is about to be promptly called by everyone; too bad the Cyclades are still not in the pot. Give them a few weeks... Bloomberg reports that: "Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou set a one-week deadline for the European Union to craft a financial aid mechanism for Greece, challenging Germany to give up its doubts about a rescue package." And here we were thinking only Bernanke was clinically insane. G-Pap, it turns out, is shocked that someone can just say no to his generous offer of allowing someone else to bail him out. Act now, or in one month when you can buy Greece (and its islands) in a 363 sale, it will be too late (to overpay).

Is the fabled Greek bailout not happening? Will Greece be expelled from the Eurozone finally? Is China withdrawing too much liquidity? Did Bernanke say anything true or factual yesterday? Will Goldman ever upgrade a stock with less than 20% short interest? Will algos ever stop gunning the market higher: can we close green 30 days in a row? How about 300? Will we ever see a billion shares traded in one day again (in other words a down day)? For this and anything else, this is today's open thread.

No, not LeMans... Not the local PCA track day. Porsche took top honors in a study of long-term vehicle dependability by J.D. Power & Associates. Toyota fell two spots to fifth- below Mercury and Buick... But, don't believe the hype.