Archive - Jul 30, 2010 - Story

It appears the earlier market rumor about a Chicago PMI of 53.6 that sent the SPOOs another leg lower were incorrect. Now if only the administration can please reconcile the drop in the economy with the PMI surge all will be forgiven. In the meantime stocks keep trading from headline to headline. Categories posting improvement include Employment, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Inventories and Production, while Prices Paid decline again.

Yet more pessimism from Goldman's Jan Hatzius, who sees a consistent decline in end-consumption. But how can that be when even Bloomberg now writes that Americans Buy IPads While Broke in New Abnormal Economy...From Jan: "Although the broad outlines of growth in Q2 were about as expected-large gains in residential and business investment and federal spending versus a deep setback in trade-all of these were more extreme than we had estimated. Inventory accumulation was faster than expected, contributing one percentage point to Q2 growth. This plus the unsustainability of the gains in construction-led by a nearly 28% annualized increase in the residential component-emphasizes the downside risks to growth in future quarters, especially as real consumer spending was sluggish. That said, the trade drag will also reverse. On balance, we see little in the first look at these numbers to alter our view that the economy will remain sluggish in the period immediately ahead."

Yesterday, we had our fifth circuit breaker pop since the pilot program was announced. This time the stock was CSCO and 7 trades of 100 shares priced between $24 and $26 caused the breaker to go off. All of these trades occurred on the NYSE Amex. You’ll recall that we just wrote about the NYSE Amex trading NASDAQ stocks in a recent post. It didn’t take long for that little experiment to cause problems. The question that now needs to be asked is why did the NYSE Amex allow a trade to occur through the market by such a large percentage? CSCO is one of the most active stocks, and let there be no doubt that there were plenty of offers to fill a 700 share buy order at competing venues. It appears that rather than route to another venue, NYSE Amex routed the buy order to their own best offer first (which was far away from the NBBO). Wait a minute, stop right there, we are throwing a flag and asking for some instant replay. In addition to being a clear violation of Rule 611 of Reg NMS, this smells of internalization. Is the NYSE Amex experimenting with some sort of “flash” order? Inquiring minds would like to know. We haven’t seen the data feed spec yet for the NYSE Amex but you can count on us to take a look and report back to you if we see something funny going on there.

Yesterdays’ activity showed the Q/V spread coming in while the market gyrated a little higher as this time it was Q longs who were the aggressive liquidators. Rumors however still abound about delivery issues. Observably, the majority of spreads continue to come in as the market rallies. It can’t be emphasized enough. The cost of carry should not come in on a financial spread as the underlying rallies, as evidenced in the Contango Crush here.

For gold: Cost of carry = risk free interest rate + storage costs for the time period.

And this is happening even despite the very appropriately named Bullard telling CNBC that he calls "for a plan to have significant easing if the situation arises" in essence guaranteeing QE2.0. Today's GDP report has just confirmed that another round of dollar debasement, long expected by everyone at Zero Hedge, is now inevitable. And with the ECB actively "easing", better known as printing, as well, the race to the currency bottom, now well in the second to last lap, is starting to get interesting once again.

Double dip confirmed as Q2 GDP plunges from revised Q1 number: GDP comes in at a below consensus 2.4%, which a huge drop from the revised Q1 number which came in at 3.7% (from 2.7%). The GDP Price index comes at 1.8%, the core PCE comes at 1.1%, from 0.7% previously. Per the revised GDP numbers, the US economy has now shrunk by 4.1% from Q4 2007 to Q2 2009, compared with the 3.7% previous estimate. From the BEA: "The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, exports, personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased."

• Asian stocks lower on Friday ahead of fresh growth numbers from the US.
• Japan's industrial prodn unexpectedly fell 1.5% in June on expectations of lower exports.
• US close to Japan-style deflation, Bullard, a voting member of the Fed Reserve says.
• Alcatel-Lucent swings to Q2 loss of €184M on a 2.4% decline in revs to €3.8B.
• American Apparel shares fall as much as 25% after auditors, Deloitte & Touche, resign.
• Anglo American's H1 profit falls 31% to $2.06B, despite 35% jump in revs at $15.02B.
• Bayer cuts full-year forecasts at two of three units as profit declines
• British Airways' Q1 loss widens to GBP122M following strikes. Revs fell 2.3%.
• Citigroup pays $75M to settle charges for providing inadequate information to investors.
• Consortium led by Li Ka-shing to buy EDF's U.K. assets for $9.05B.
• DBS posts surprise 2Q loss on $747M impairment charge
• Disney selling Miramax to Tutor and Colony Capital for more than $660M

With everyone focusing on today's GDP, it is easy to ignore the other relevant economic data to be released in the one and a half hour block before 10am. In order of appearance, they are: Q2 GDP,the employment cost index, the Chicago PMI, and the final UMichigan consumer sentiment. Below is a summary from a rather bearish Goldman Sachs (which expects a 2.0% GDP print in 15 minutes) on each of these data points.

As expected, the tight correlation between European interbank funding rates and the EURUSD FX rate continues: today, we have seen the first inflection point in both 3M Euribor and 3M EUR Libor, as both have dropped marginally lower, the first from 0.899 to 0.896, the second from 0.83344% to 0.8325%: this is the first decline since July 14. And, not surprisingly, today we see a big pullback in the EURUSD complex. Never too far behind with its own attempt at an explanation, here is Goldman, which after calling for 1.15 in the EURUSD flipflopped yet once again, and is now selling the other side of its 1.35 target to clients.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 30/07/10

I just got off the horn with the Ruling Elite. We had an emergency conference call and to tell you the truth, they ain’t happy. You little people are not responding the way you are supposed to. A significant portion of you are not getting more optimistic because they tell you to. Instead of just reading the headline on Bloomberg that durable goods orders skyrocketed in June, you actually read the details that said durable goods orders plunged. It is getting difficult for the ruling elite to keep the masses sedated and dumbed down. These damn bloggers, with their facts and critical thinking, are throwing a wrench into the gears. Obama and his crack team are working round the clock to lock down the internet, but it will take time. Not that they are totally dissatisfied. They’ve been able to renovate their penthouses and purchase new mansions in the Hamptons with the billions in bonuses you supplied through TARP. The $1.2 trillion supplied by your children and grandchildren to buy up toxic mortgages off their balances sheets was a godsend. They will never call you suckers, to your face.