Archive - Jul 7, 2010 - Story

There is a simple reason why all hedge funds with "relative value" or "deep value" in their names will soon be looking to change their moniker: stock picking no longer works, with the only strategy that matters, as implied correlation is now at the second highest level in history, is picking the time to leverage beta exposure and riding the broader market up or down. Alpha is now dead. as Barclay's head of quantitative strategies Matt Rothman says, "Indeed, it was hard to be a stock picker in the market for the last two months as the last two months have seen historically low levels of dispersion in stock returns. As shown in Figure 2, the cross-sectional correlation across all stocks in the market was at its second highest level last month (measured back to July 1950) and recorded its third highest level this month; there have never been to two months back-to-back with anything approaching these levels. To belabor the obvious and put this in perspective, current levels of correlation are higher than in October 1987, anytime during the Fall of 2008, either the run-up or the bursting of the Internet Bubble, or after 9/11. The reason this matters to all stock pickers — fundamental or
quantitative — is because with stock return dispersions at all-time
lows, it is extraordinarily difficult to be picking stocks." In other words, the danger of yet another systemic meltdown (or up), now that everyone is on the same side of the trade (and whoever isn't, is getting steamrolled), is higher than ever in history, up to and including May 6. And he, who has the greatest access to (risk free) leverage wins. Therefore look for all the "investment bank" hedge funds with prop desks and discount window access to once again post record trading days for the current and all future quarters until even they blow themselves up eventually and the Fed can do nothing to prevent it.

RANsquawk US Afternoon Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 07/07/10

Just as Europe was happily gloating that it managed to push markets up with the second stress test rumor of a Greek debt haircut of 16-17%, here comes JPM's Francesca Tondi dashing European bank regulators' hope, and stating that anything below 30% on Greek bonds, 20% on Portugal, 15% on Spain, and 10% on Italy, Ireland and Hungary (in the base case scenario), is a joke. Below is the sensitivity table that serves as the framework for JPM's stress test. As can be seen, even the optimistic scenario is far more draconian than what Europe is planning on using, thereby discrediting the test, whose assumptions are now likely going to be revised yet again to be seen as anything remotely credible.

The latest targeted leak in the European "stress" tests is that according to German bank sources, the discount on Greek debt will be in the 16-17% ballpark. This compares to an earlier rumor leak of a 10% discount on Greek debt which however did not sufficiently spike the market, leading to rumor #2 which so far has done a good job at pushing the AUDJPY (aka stocks) higher. The quid pro quo however, is to take not only German but now French bonds, will be out of the "stressed" picture. As Reuters reports: "The presumed markdown applied to French sovereign bonds will be 0.7 percent, one of the sources, both of which are based in Germany, added. "German sovereign bonds will not be stressed," both sources confirmed." Of course, with Greek bonds being stressed to market (which is where the discount actually implies they are tested), French bonds would would suffer a far greater markdown than 0.7%. But then again, the EU has already bought up a ton of Greek bonds, and little if any French. Can't have the bank pick and choose which country to bail out now, can it.

Now that it has been made clear that the BIS and its member banks engage in gold swaps, which imply that gold price volatility has to be kept to a minimum, thus inviting the opportunity for, gasp, manipulation, Europe, once again seeing spiking commercial paper rates (yeah, that whole myth about dramatically better money markets was vastly exaggerated), was scratching its head earlier today as to what is a good safe haven for capital. And judging by the EURCHF chart below the answer soon presented itself. After getting sold in droves by the SNB last night as the Swiss Bank was intervening in the pair (contrary to posturing otherwise), today the market is once again testing the bank's resolve,to load up even more euros on its already burgeoning balance sheet.

Another day, another day of endless pain for investors in the "story" IPO of the year, for which positive net income is only an irrelevant side factor and to be ignored (just ask Andrew Tilton, who sees a 99.3% probability the company will make its investors rich to quite rich sooner or later). In the meantime, if you bought the stock as recently as 5 days ago, you are now down 50%. Elsewhere, stocks are doing their own thing and doing the apeshit dance even as credit is once again largely ignoring all the insanity conducted by a few short circuited computers.

Goldman outdoes itself again. After Jan Hatzius has been banging the economic slowdown drums for days now, the firm's other prominent economist Andrew Tilton is out with a new report "Recession Forecast Models Back in Vogue", according to which the firm plugged in a few numbers into an overclocked iMac (appropriately equipped with the No Recession Ever ap), asked if there will be a recession, and the result was, stunning, "no way in hell." Most hilariously, the report contains the following stunner: "Typical recession forecasting models estimate a near-zero likelihood
that the economy has entered recession again, or that it will in the
near future... The best news first: the model shows essentially zero probability that the economy is currently in recession.  Payrolls have generally been expanding in recent months and the unemployment rate has actually come down slightly.  This is unlikely to be a controversial conclusion for most market participants and so we will not dwell on it further." In other words, because everyone knows that there is really no trouble in the jobless arena, aside from some rumblings in the periphery that the real unemployment rate is, oh, 16.5%, Goldman sees no need to discuss this data point, as it is really completely irrelevant. Oh yes, and the model refs out if you assume in negative input. Moody's coupled with a dash of European stress tests anyone?

After slumping 4% yesterday to close at 2,127, the Baltic Dry has plunged yet another 5% today, to close just above 2,000 at 2,018. This is the lowest level for the index in 14 months since May 5 of 2009 when it last traded by 2,000 and a reason for all Chinese trade "resurgence" bulls to reevaluate their thesis. Did China outsmart everyone, with the Yuan "reval" coming at a time when planned foreign trade would be de minimis? In the meantime, this is bad news for Australia and Brazil, and especially the AUD and the BRL, but who cares about facts anymore.

On Tuesday, gold dropped to its lowest level in 6 weeks as investors explore riskier assets. China’s statement that it has no plans to start allocating more gold to its reserves (percentage wise), isn’t giving bulls much to work with this morning. Gold opened at $1212.2 per 100 troy ounces, and dropped to 1195.1 by closing time.

• Unlike the US, Germany can pass a budget, and a strict one at that (Deutsche Welle)
• Excessive debt may sink global stocks to crisis lows (Bloomberg, h/t Naufal)
• BP is the new RadioShack - now reported in Abu Dhabi talks (Reuters)
• US banks face "untold problem" as muni debt swells (BusinessWeek)
• The sevens sins of GLD (Bullion Bulls Canada, h/t Kyle and Robert)
• Deutsche Bank shakes up algos (Traders
  Magazine)

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE ) is once again making waves, by reminding the world about its trillions in dollar-denominated holdings, and that these could be dumped in a heartbeat. Of course, in tried and true Chinese fashion, it is notifying the world it has no intention of using the "nuclear option" which of course is merely a reminder that the nuclear option not only exists but is certainly at the forefront of any "diplomatic" negotiations with the US. As Reuters reports, "In a series of questions and answers posted on its website, www.safe.gov.cn, SAFE asked rhetorically whether China would use its $2.45 trillion stockpile of reserves, the world's largest, as a "nuclear weapon." Apparently, the primary focus of the Q&A was to allay fears that China may be stockpiling gold in the open market: "SAFE was lukewarm about gold as an investment. "It cannot become a main channel for investing our foreign exchange reserves," the agency said, noting the size of the gold market was limited and prices were volatile. Buying more gold would also not help much in diversifying China's reserves." Of course, with all this occurring in light of recent disclosure that the BIS has been involved in gold swaps to provide liquidity to unknown banks, immediately obviates this statement, since, as we have pointed out previously, the Chinese 7 and 30 Day repo markets are still sufficiently strained, and gold would certainly come in useful to allay fears that domestic banks have something beyond massively underwater residential loans on their balance sheets to fund trillions in liabilities. All the Chinese statement really is, is a warning to the US to avoid following the advice of such permaspenders as Krugman, and now Goldman, and to launch into another round of monetary devaluation via QE. We are skeptical that once Bernanke puts the presses into turbo mode once again, that China will theatricize the same kind of wholesome support for US-based assets.

• Asian stocks fall, Yen strengthens on slowing US service industry growth.
• Brazil's Lula falters in bid to cut floating-rate debt as rates increase.
• China has significantly increased its purchases of Japanese govt bonds as it diversifies its foreign-currency reserves.
• China plans new resource tax on coal, oil, gas in Western areas.
• Europe will outline stress test procedure.
• Iceland’s lenders stand to lose as much as $4.3B, after court ruling last month found that some foreign loans were illegal.
• Oil traded near $72 a barrel in New York.

And now the latest joke - the increasingly more incorrectly named "stress" tests being conducted in Europe are now officially confirmed to be anything but. As Market News reports: "Planned stress tests for European banks will cover their resistance to a crisis in the market for European sovereign debt, but not the scenario of a default of a Eurozone state since the EU would not allow such an occurrence, a German newspaper reported Wednesday." Now that is some serious downside stress testing. Of course, by the time the stress tests are found to have been a joke, and the country hosting the bank blows up just becase the bank's assets are 3x the host nation's GDP, and the country is forced to bankrupt, it will be far too late. So let's get this straight - the very issue that is at the heart of the liquidity crisis in Europe, namely the fact that a bankrupt Greece has managed to destroy the interbank funding market in Portugal and Spain, and the other PIIGS, and has pushed EURIBOR and other money market metrics to one year stress highs, and forced the ECB to lend over $1 trillion to various central and commercial banks, will not be tested for? Fair enough - if the ECB wants to treat the CDS vigilantes as a bunch of idiots, only to be hounded in the press with derogatory words as "Wolfpack" and much worse, so be it. But it certainly should not be surprised if this is latest show of idiocy by Trichet's henchmen serves as the springboard for the latest round of spreads blowing up across Europe.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 07/07/10