Archive - Sep 22, 2010 - Story

"Wax on, Wax off", "risk on, risk off", whatever you want to call it, the most prevalent phenomenon in capital markets over the bear market rally of the past year has been the gradual yet relentless rise in cross asset correlations. As we reported earlier, hedge funds are now openly returning capital due to their inability to properly hedge positions and execute on traditional long/short strategies, which in turn is wreaking havoc on the entire 130/30 or 130/70 model (which also means gross leverage for most rational hedge funds is reduced as those who do gross up, are effectively betting the farm on market moves with an increasingly shorter and more volatile even horizon). Long before this became a daily topic on CNBC, we were warning about the dire implications of alpha extinction, and the impact it would have on hedge funds. And with the opportunity to diversify away risk increasingly taken away from investors, we expect that this trend will result in ever more capital fleeing the stock market. Yet the question remains: what has caused correlations to surge to current levels? If these reasons can be identified, it should be easy to eliminate them one at a time until some semblance of a rational market returns (at least on paper). Luckily, Nicholas Colas of BNY has once again beaten us to the punch, and has compiled a list of the top 10 reasons for increased asset price correlations. So without further ado...

Chris Martenson is one of the few visionaries who has long been warning about the disastrous effects of out of control spending and debt monetization (as well as unmasking the shell game the government has been engaging in for the past two years as it attempts to sequester foreign MBS holdings and exchange them for Treasury securities by tracking the TIC-custody account divergence), and his blog should be required reading for all interested in the intricacies of Fed intervention in rates. Today, Martenson has a post which, however, touches on something completely different: survival. In his words: "I was interviewed by Jack Spirko of The Survival Podcast. We had a meaty exploration of the core tenets of the Three Es (Economy, Energy, Environment) in light of recent developments, then delved pretty deeply into strategies for building personal resilience, which is the main focus of Jack's regular podcasts. I enjoyed myself and think the discussion is worth listening to." Yet this is not a bunker survivalist manifesto: "A note on TSP: while it has a "survival" theme, it's not "survivalist" in its approach. Jack is focused on helping his audience learn how to increase their degree of personal preparation - much in the same way we're focused on it here at CM.com. His mantra is "Helping you live the life you want, if times get tough, or even if they don't." Like me, he's interested in guiding people to take steps that will improve their quality of life no matter how things unfold in the future. Speaking with him before and during our interview, I found him to be thoughtful, measured, and passionate about making a positive difference."

With mid-term elections a month and a half away, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts approaching at a rapid pace, the stakes for Obama's dwindling administration on the tax cut extension issue loom. And as Goldman's Alec Phillips demonstrates, the costs of either decision are huge: on one hand, should Obama go ahead and relent to extending all the tax cuts, he will almost guaranteed not be around for a second term due to the avalanche of disappointment in his electorate as he relents on this key promise. On the other hand, should he and the republicans be unable to find a compromise and all tax cuts expire, the impact to the economy could be so vast that America's breezy depression will become a full blown hurricane, possibly worse than anything the nation has ever seen. Phillips' succinct summary of the downside case is as follows: "Letting all of these provisions expire would subtract nearly 10 percentage points from annualized disposable income growth in Q1 2011, which could translate into a nearly 2 percentage point decline in final demand and nearly that large a drag on GDP in the first half of 2011." And it is not just the Bush cuts that are at steak: the year end "cliff" also sees the expiration of the “Making Work Pay” (MWP) payroll tax credit enacted in ARRA, and the relief from the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Yet with such key tax "experts" in the administration as Romer, Orszag and now Summers all gone, Obama will be very much clueless to evaluate the dramatic impact of all these "cliff" developments until it is likely too late. One thing is certain: if a stalemate prevails, GDP for H1 of 2011 will be wildly negative. The summary of the case by case impact can be seen on the chart below.

Since the beginning of the greatest depression, US household net worth has plunged nearly 11 trillion dollars. All the while we continue to experience price inflation and expanded government spending. In a normal economy that isn’t run by a bunch of criminals, we should expect to see price deflation as malinvestment is wiped out. Since our money is based on debt, as debt is reduced though defaults and write-downs, the monetary base should contract, thereby leading to price deflation. Of course, this is not what we are actually experiencing at the present moment since the criminal central bankers and politicians have decided to prevent the liquidation of malinvestment through a nearly endless series of bailouts, guarantees, and deficit spending.

On one end, you have the destruction left over from the extinction of US auto manufacturing. On the other end, you have PIMCO. And inbetween the two, there are 294 home markets, which make up the exponential curve of US real estate prices. It is not surprising that the non-normal distribution in home prices follows quite closely the Talebian extremistan distributions expected (even though the last word is an oxymoron in this context) out of modern day markets. We wonder which end of the curve the President has got his eyes focused most on these days for "excess efficiency" retention purposes.

Jeff Gundlach who has been spot on with timing his calls for Treasury inflection points, did a quick Q&A with Morningstar summarizing his outlook on the economy. In a nutshell while the DoubleLine manager is still skeptical that inflation may strike, he is convinced deflation is pervasive. To wit: "markets and the economy to date have offered scant evidence to support
the inflation case. Stocks are down over the past 10 years. Real estate
is down hard over the last five years. Commodities are down sharply over
the last two years. Instead of spiking to double digits, bond yields
are hugging the ground. M3, which is now calculated only by private
economists, is down nicely over the past year. And of course money
velocity is moribund: Society has looked into the debt abyss and decided
enough is enough with the debt-based consumer economy. So, deflationary
forces still prevail. What could shift the balance of forces in favor
of inflation? A well-meaning movement to cut the deficit has at long
last arrived, maybe. But cutting the deficit that is supporting the
consumer economy will directly depress gross domestic product. If that
causes not just a look but a step or two into the deflationary abyss,
then maybe the inflation case will move to center stage." Sure, let's not forget the collapse in the shadow economy. But let's also not forget that the economy is in a vacuum, and were the Fed not in the picture, we would totally agree. But because the most irrational human being in the world is in charge of said world via his control of the US reserve currency (and irrational because he promotes exclusively policies that benefit the vast minority over the majority), we will have to disagree. And so would the price of gold.

Here are the facts: Beginning on May 5, there have been 20 consecutive outflows from domestic mutual equity funds. The average weekly outflow has been ($3.5) billion. Total outflows in this period are $70 billion. Total outflows YTD are $68 billion. The S&P on May 5, the day the series of outflows began, was 116.8. Today it closed at 113.5, a 2.8% decline despite almost $100 billion of runrated outflows. Furthermore, as we previously disclosed, YTD ETF flows through August into pure domestic equity-related strategies have been a negative $16.8 billion. In other words, the stock market is now virtually unchanged in 2010, even as almost $80 billion in equity-capital has been withdrawn.

Here is our question: how is this possible?

Some contrarian views on asset allocation from Yves Lamoureux: "We have already suggested looking at grains and soft commodities on top of long treasuries to be adequately immunized. I did by the way recently warn that it was too crowded a place. With the recent correction in Treasuries, it does give us a further entry point and, yes I am still in the bull camp. I have also been a strong hard asset follower for quite some time. I am now worried that this trade has become too crowded. Let me explain. Let’s take, for example, an inflatable life raft. If maximum capacity is 12 people and 36 poor souls looking for escape and survival climb aboard, the life raft will sink and will defeat its purpose. This is perhaps the tragedy in the making now in gold and corporate bonds. High uncertainty surrounding markets supports behaviour pricing big risk premiums in anticipation of events."

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 22/09/10

And now the idiot politicians are finally really involved: Reuters reports that the House will vote this coming Friday to pressure China into revaluing its currency (uh... what?). While it is unclear just what passage of this law will do (send letters full of harsh language signed "Love Schumer", or pretend Americans will no longer buy iPads and Kindles, or better yet, offer to pay a refund to the $840 billion in US bonds held by the Chinese), this will merely accelerate the collapse of world trade into all out protectionism. As we presented a week ago, Goldman's Alec Phillips was right. His conclusion offers some hope that traditional trade relations won't collapse for at least a few more months: "We think that the risk that such legislation is enacted this year is still fairly low. There is little time left on the legislative calendar, and not yet a clear legislative strategy. That said, we also don’t expect this issue to disappear after the election, given that the current political reaction is driven by the weak economy and labor market as much as it is by the political cycle." Yet with the Democrats calling this vote, it is inevitable that it will pass. What happens next is really anyone's guess.

Readers are well aware, that when it comes to big picture economic topics, one of our favorite themes is the gradual disintegration of Shadow Banking (discussed previously in detail here and here). The main reason for this is that the shadow banking system, while materially larger than traditional bank liabilities ($17 vs $13 trillion), is collapsing at a whopping $4 trillion a year annualized rate. What this implies for credit money, and for the Fed's limited reaction arsenal is hopefully all too clear. Yet as we have a habit of jumping into slightly advanced topics, here is an informative introductory post written by Dave Friedman of Wall St. Cheat Sheet (the first of three) covering some of the fundamentals of this arguably most critical for the great deflation/hyperinflation debate topic.

Oops

Recent speculation that PIMCO enjoys trading by piggybacking on what the Fed will do in the future has hopefully not escaped our readers. As we highlighted in Pimco Offloads $40 Billion In Treasurys, As Frontrunning Fed Creates Billions Of Profits; Gross Does Not Expect QE 2 On Sept. 21; Pimco's "Fed Frontrunning" Tell Exposed, Mr. Gross has a knack of buying up on margin either MBS (ahead of QE1) or USTs (ahead of QE Lite), precisely before the points when there is a big marginal push in prevailing prices higher. The fact that he did not do so in the last month confirmed to us at least that the Fed was not going to engage in QE2 on September 21 (which turned out to be the case). Yet it is one thing to speculate based on indirect evidence, and something totally different to hear Mr. Gross on primetime TV essentially validating that he just may have an inside line to the Federal Reserve Board. In all the commotion over yesterday's FOMC announcement, some may have missed the following line uttered by the Newportbeachian: "What is important going into November is the staff forecast for economic growth for the next 12-18 months. Our understanding is that the Fed is about to downgrade their forecast from 3% down to 2%." At which point the CNBC anchors conveniently confirm that Mr. Gross just disclosed something which is completely non-public: "We don't have that forecast yet, right Steve?.. We won't get that for 3 weeks Erin that's when it comes out with the minutes of this meeting." Well, we won't, but Mr. Gross, who manages $1.2 trillion in debt, almost as much as the entire Federal Reserve, sure seems to already have access to it.

With the euro surging, it was only a matter of time before the rickety house of European cards was put on full display once again. Sure enough, not 24 hours after the EURUSD hit a "German export industry suicidal" 1.34, here comes Germany's FinMin Schaeuble, who has said that if the IMF/EU hope to extend the duration of the European Bail Out Facility beyond 2013, they have another thing coming. As a reminder, Reuters reported a few days ago that "Greece's international lenders assured investors this week that they would not abandon Athens at the end of a 3-year bailout plan if it fulfilled tough reforms but failed to regain market trust." Additionally, Greek newspaper Ta Nea reported over the weekend that EU officials are considering an extension of the aid package for Greece beyond the agreed three years, due to fears that the country’s economy will not have sufficiently recovered by 2013. The reason - in 2013 Greek public debt is expected to hit its peak of 150% of GDP, a level far higher than where it is now. Regardless, it seems that Germany is once again sowing the seeds for the next crisis, as the ECB is unable to go "full retard" with QE.X right now as that would destroy the credibility of recent lies that Europe was doing oh so well (and as we are expecting a tide of European GDP revisions lower, Italy just announced a few hours back that its GDP would not meet a previous target of 1.5% as previously disclosed). In other words, the next step in the devaluation race will be out of Europe, possibly accompanied by the provisional semi-ejection of the PIIGS from the Eurozone just to make the point that not only Bernanke is a middle-class destroyer.

The topic of hyperinflation vs deflation has gotten much prominent attention in the fringe media in recent weeks (and judging by the surge in gold, this attention is shifting to the broader population). Below we provide another perspective on what the phenomenon of "hyperinflation" signifies. The conclusion is not all that surprising to the Zero Hedge community: "As long as our politicians and the federal reserve continue on their quest to debase our currency, the threat of a hyper-depression remains. I personally do not believe this will happen, as there would eventually be enough opposition to quantitative easing to cease it, due to fear that it may result in destroying the savings or our baby boomer population and the financially prudent (the people who are actually important towards having a healthy and sustainable economy). However, we may very well be in a situation where Fed officials don’t realize what they’re doing until it’s too late."