Archive - Jan 8, 2011 - Story

Hooray…Happy days are here again! That is exactly what the elite would have us believe with the 9.4% unemployment number in this huge CONfidence game otherwise known as the USEconomy. We were having dinner at my in-law’s house and I had overheard the TV playing in the back ground. At one point, I thought I had heard the squealing of teenagers who were fawning over Justin Beiber. Instead, it turned out that it was someone on the news reporting the new, much lower 9.4% unemployment rate. I could hear the panting of excitement spoken by the breathless reporters who were interviewing very serious economists about this new 9.4% rate. The news aired their personal interest piece about a girl who was just hired at an internet company. She commented with the utmost confidence that the economy was getting better!! You have all heard that saying, “it is a recession when your neighbor loses a job, but when you lose a job it is a depression.” Well, according to her, we are out of her depression. But alas, this is all a dream and the media is using their very best, tried and true propaganda to keep the people from getting too upset with reality.

Simon Hunt, founder of Brook Hunt, puts a dent in the dreams of all those who expect to see a continuing surge in copper prices throughout 2011 and further.  The copper specialist, who has since left the firm he founded and is now head of Simon Hunt Strategic Services which specialises in copper, global economics and China, is arguably one of the premier experts on the topic of copper. It therefore behooves the copper bulls to pay attention to his latest interim note which contains "our principal reasons why copper
prices this year won?t live up to the hopes of so many bulls." And his long-term vision is about as scary as they get: "Peak prices
for 2011  will be experienced in the first quarter of the year, if they
have not already been seen. Prices will then fall until around the start
of the fourth quarter, hitting a low of some $5500. Recovery will
follow rising parabolically in 2012 to some $14,000 by the end of next
year.  This will signal the end of the gaming of copper prices. A return to
global recession, deflation and the destruction of large end uses of
copper will see prices crashing to levels long since forgotten - to
under $1500 by 2016. It will be at that point that the real
restructuring of the industry will take place.  Future trend growth
rates for world refined copper consumption will be below 2% a year
implying that marginal producers will be closed down. It  is not a
shortage of supply that will shape the future of copper but a shortage
of required material for furnaces." Full note attached.

And now back to finance. From John Noyce of GS FX sales, one of the better chartists out there, here are the charts that matter in the next week. Of particular note: dollar strength, silver weakness, range bound rates, rate-USD correlations, some interesting observations in a secondary pair of EURKRW, the bullish key day reversal in the USDJPY, the derivative nature of the AUDCAD as a China/US proxy, and more.

"You know that Republicans will yell about the evils of partisanship whenever anyone tries to make a connection between the rhetoric of Beck, Limbaugh, etc. and the violence I fear we’re going to see in the months and years ahead. But violent acts are what happen when you create a climate of hate. And it’s long past time for the GOP’s leaders to take a stand against the hate-mongers." Paul Krugman

Details emerge about the shooter Jared Loughner. In addition to numerous details about his life, such as his favorite books, among which are The Communist Manifesto and Mein Kampf, we find the following suicide video. Incidentally his MySpace site has already been taken down.

Per the AP, the gunman in Arizona lawmaker's shooting identified as Jared Laughner, and the weapon used was a pistol with an extended magazine. According to Jay Bookman, Laughner is "ex-military and fought in Afghanistan."

This morning, in an unspeakable tragedy, a number of Americans were shot in Tucson, Arizona, at a constituent meeting with Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. And while we are continuing to receive information, we know that some have passed away, and that Representative Giffords is gravely wounded. We do not yet have all the answers. What we do know is that such a senseless and terrible act of violence has no place in a free society. I ask all Americans to join me and Michelle in keeping Representative Giffords, the victims of this tragedy, and their families in our prayers.

"It is with the deepest sadness that we have received word of the attack on Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, members of her staff, and her constituents. This terrible act of violence is a national tragedy, and today is a very sad day for our country. My prayers, and the prayers of all Members of Congress, go out to her husband, Captain Mark Kelly, their family, and to all of the staff and others who were victims of this horrible attack. Congresswoman Giffords is a brilliant and courageous Member of Congress, bringing to Washington the views of a new generation of national leaders. It is especially tragic that she was attacked as she was meeting with her constituents whom she serves with such dedication and distinction."

My sincere condolences are offered to the family of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and the other victims of today's tragic shooting in Arizona.

On behalf of Todd and my family, we all pray for the victims and their families, and for peace and justice.

- Sarah Palin

“I am horrified by the senseless attack on Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords and members of her staff. An attack on one who serves is an attack on all who serve. Acts and threats of violence against public officials have no place in our society. Our prayers are with Congresswoman Giffords, her staff, all who were injured, and their families. This is a sad day for our country."

From Breaking News: Local media is reporting Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, a Democrat, was shot ‘point blank in the head at a town-hall like event in northern Tucson. Is this the beginning?

Update from NBC News: Dem Party in Tucson saying Giffords taken to hospital, 5 others also shot. Shooter apparently in custody.

Update 2: from Fox Phoenix: 12 people shot at Gabby Giffords community meeting. Congresswoman among the injured, while CNN reports 6 dead and 15 wounded.

Update 3: NPR confirms Gifford has died. Gawker has provided a description of the shooter.

Update 4: Reuters refuting the previous NPR news, and states that Giffords is still alive, in surgery, nine other patients brought in from shooting, per a hospital spokeswoman

U.S.O.F.C.: the United States of Organized Financial Crime. The Status Quo is dependent on a Financial Mafia for its wealth, and it is loathe to surrender it. What happens if fraud and misrepresentation of risk is expunged from the U.S. financial system? In President Bush's memorable phrase: This sucker's going down. There is a fascinating disconnect between the "law and order" society ceaselessly depicted on TV and the realities of the American financial system, which is now totally dependent on lies, fraud, embezzlement and misrepresentation of risk. Remove those and the system implodes.

Some observations...Also, we hope Goldman's high net worth SPV clients read the fine print on the PPM. You never know: that stake may suddenly be diluted to 0.000000001%.

As Zero Hedge wrote earlier, following revelations that the DOJ was going through line items of private data, including personal financial information on Twitter, WikiLeaks has demanded that Goldman darling Facebook as well as the firm that "does no evil" Google reveal any subpoenas they may have received, if any. And all signs point to yes: after all why would the DOJ go after just Twitter which is not a repository of any notable private data, unlike the other companies, one of which already has been in much hot water in the past due to its privacy policy, and especially now that Goldman's SPV has full access to who knows what information: courtesy of the brain dead parasitic zombies at the SEC nobody knows just who knows what vis-a-vis Goldman's "private placement." And since a positive answer will most likely not do anything good for the brand reputation of either firm, as it will be spun in the way that these firms not only did not disclose an incursion in user privacy, but only did so following a fluke act by Twitter, and may well be working behind the scenes with who knows who else on providing gobs of private data on a silver platter to whatever is the government's witch hunt organization du jour, then maybe, just maybe, the world's infatuation with MySpace v2 (and Friendster v3) may finally start to wane, explaining why just as there are buyers, no matter how wealthy and sophisticated, in Goldman's latest PR fiasco, so there are sellers, who just happen to be wealthier and more sophisticated.

Is mathematics a quantum leap forward compared to other methods of thinking? Sure. Its precision beats every other possible “system” and human intuition is limited by experience. One cannot “see” curves without tangents, nor intuit an n- dimensional space. But everyone lives and thinks with intuition in ordinary life. Successful trading is about buying cheap and selling dear: mathematical thinking is an indispensible means to that end. But it can also obscure intuition that necessarily deals with the inexact definitions of everyday life. Further, a mindset wholly engrossed in the mathematical development of an axiom base can take one far from practical relevance.