Archive - Nov 3, 2011 - Story

Bloomberg's consumer comfort index once again confirms what so many know, despite the day to day 3-4% swings in equity markets, that broad-based sentiment is desperately weak. Retail metrics also confirmed retail sales starting to disappoint - as perhaps burning through savings is starting to reach its tipping point - and so perhaps all those charts we have been so vociferous about pointing to the disconnect between spending/growth and sentiment will converge sooner than many suspect. Specifically the State of the Economy index is only fractionally above its record lows from Feb09 - about as bad as it can get!!

UPDATE 3: JEF halted again

UPDATE 2: JEF resumes trading, dead cat bounce

UPDATE: -20% now, halted

Presented without comment suffice to say that while everyone is focusing on Europe, the US may be about to have its second failed Primary Dealer in a week (and to note the cockroach reference from yesterday):

Want to listen in on how Goldman's ex-employee MFs all of Europe? Here is your chance as Super Mario conducts his first ever press conference as head of the most undercapitalized central bank in the history of the world, better known as Goldman-am-Main.

LOL

• GREEK PRIME MINISTER WON'T RESIGN HIS POST, PARTY OFFICIAL SAYS
  
• PAPANDREOU SAID TO FIGHT ON AS PREMIER, MAKE SPEECH TONIGHT

The ECB cutting rates to preserve zee price stabeeleetee? Sure, great idea. What about the one and only actual mandate: inflation. Well, here is what it looks like in Italy. Thank god it is under control. In other news, the ECB is now on collision course with reality and Germany, having used up its last remaining bullet.

At this moment, the headlines coming out of Greece are confusing and contradictory.  It isn't clear whether or not there will be a referendum or a vote of no confidence.  There may be a new leader, there may not be.  All we can do is wait for the next headline.  In the end I think there will be a referendum. You can't put the genie back in the bottle.  If a referendum is cancelled now, how will the people of Greece react? Maybe the No Eurozone plan won't be so compelling, but if people start taking a serious look at how it would work, it might not be so bad, and don't forget, the Eurozone plan isn't that great.  At some point, the citizens of the country need to make the decisions.  Electing politicians that can then be corrupted by Merkozy is not a long term solution. 

The former Goldman banker cutting rates two days after his appointment? Stunning. Next up, we get to listen to an Italian accent instead of a French one for the first time in a decade, at the press conference to be held shortly. The EUR reaction is appropriate: completely schizophrenic.

20 minutes until the expected G-Pap resignation. Spend them with this silliness.

Or just in time for the ECB announcement, due in... 30 minutes. So, if Schrodinger's Pap doesn't resign, can we finally put this silliness behind us for at least one more day.

Presented without comment:

• There were conflicting reports that Greek PM Papandreou has resigned. It was also reported that the EU referendum is off the table
• Also, according to party sources, Greek socialist MPs are forging proposal for coalition government headed by former ECB vice-president Papademos
• EU Commission said that the only option is for Greece to stay in the Euro as treaties don’t foresee an exit from the Eurozone. It also said that the Greek tranche payment is conditional on austerity implementation
• Market talk that Qatar is willing to invest into the EFSF, however earlier the Chinese President said that the Eurozone problem should mainly be solved by Europe
• According to a senior G20 official, the G20 is assessing the cost of a Greek default

One can kneejerk every headline coming out of Europe, or one can buy gold, which has finally had enough with this endless BS and has realized that no matter what the ECB will have to print, followed by everyone else.

Update: it is now officially cancelled

WTF is going on in Europe?

• VAN ROMPUY, BARROSO PRESS CONFERENCE DELAYED
  
• VAN ROMPUY, BARROSO PRESS CONFERENCE `NOT YET CANCELED' EU SAYS
  
• VAN ROMPUY, BARROSO MEETING WITH FRANCE, GERMANY, ITALY, SPAIN

And the statement that explains it all:

• EU SAYS `NOT SURE' IF VAN ROMPUY, BARROSO BRIEFING TO HAPPEN

We use the term "explain" loosely...

Today marks the beginning of a new era for the ECB, with Mario Draghi taking over the helm from Jean-Claude Trichet as the President of the central bank. Unfortunately for Draghi, the changeover is to take place at a very critical juncture and at a time when market participants are demanding that the central bank takes more pro-active measures to stimulate the stagnating economy which stands on the brink of a double dip recession. However, such action may prove difficult for Draghi to push through the governing council since doing so only few months after Trichet announced that the central bank is to resume covered bond buying and 12-month LTROs risks undermining the central banks’ credibility. Another reason why a rate cut may prove futile is that the meeting coincides with the G-20 summit where leaders of the Eurozone are expected to endorse use of the leveraged EFSF fund as an investment opportunity for countries with a large budget surplus such as China and other BRICS. In turn this indicates that comments stemming from the summit may have a more profound impact on investors’ appetite for the EU related financial instruments and therefore determine whether the EUR/USD pair consolidates above the 1.4000 level.

And refuting another rumor re-refuted previously just minutes ago, we hear from Dow Jones now that G-Pap will submit his resignation today and will ask for unity government, according to Star.gr. Oh thank god things are clear because this headline hits the tape just as we get this: Greek premier doesn't plan to resign according to Proto Thema. Needless to say, kneejerk reaction trading robots are breaking everywhere as the EURUSd trades. No point in even attaching the EURUSD chart- by the time it is up it will be off by 100 pips.