Archive - Nov 4, 2011 - Story

Yesterday we reported that the latest deus ex machina in the endless European bailout was to proceed with IMF monetization and failing that, just a narrower US-funded bailout of Europe. That ain't happening.

• German Chancellor Merkel says the G20 failed to agree on IMF resources
• German Chancellor Merkel says will make sure that the IMF has sufficient resources, but also new instruments

And it gets worse:

• German Chancellor Merkel says hardly any countries in G20 have said they will participate in the EFSF

Which means we are back to the old and now expired fallback deus exes: China and the magical, wonderful and totally unfunded EFSF. No wonder the EURUSD is dropping on the news, as for the BTP-Bunds spread, well, following the Merkel announcement that Italy has to come under IMF monitoring, see below...

• MF Global clients face day of reckoning as margins call (Reuters)
• Key Defections Hit Berlusconi (WSJ)
• G-20 Urges EU to Quell Crisis as Greece Teeters (Bloomberg)
• Greek PM scraps referendum plan (FT)
• Debt-reduction supercommittee talks appear to be at an impasse (WaPo)
• US Influence at G20 Not Diminished, White House Says (Reuters)
• ECB’s Draghi Offers Hope He Can Do What Europe Needs (Bloomberg)
• Many States Already Worried About Running Short (Reuters)
• Bill Gates urges G20 to live up to aid promises (Reuters)

Jon Corzine is gone, and as we expected, will not collect a single penny from his $12+ million severance. Statement from the MF board: "The Board of Directors of MF Global Holdings Ltd. announced the resignation of Jon S. Corzine from all posts at MF Global. Mr. Corzine has confirmed that he will not seek severance payments in connection with his resignation. Edward L. Goldberg, the lead director of the Board of Directors, and Bradley I. Abelow, the Company¹s President and Chief Operating Officer, will continue in their current positions." And here is Jon's personal announcement: "I have voluntarily offered my resignation to the Board of Directors of MF Global.  This was a difficult decision, but one that I believe is best for the firm and its stakeholders. I feel great sadness for what has transpired at MF Global and the impact it has had on the firm's clients, employees and many others. I intend to continue to assist the Company and its Board in their efforts to respond to regulatory inquiries and issues related to the disposition of the firm's assets." Now, as to how he will avoid questioning by the federal authorities, that is a different matter entirely...

Slowly, but surely, the global economic growth dynamo is growing ever dimmer and dimmer. Two days ago we reported that that relentless driver of global growth - exports - finally succumbed to reality, as slowly but surely the paradigm of everyone exporting to someone else with magically nobody importing, logically collapsed. This is now followed by German manufacturing, that traditional and only source of strength in Europe, which half an hour ago was reported to drop 4.3%, compared to an expectation of a 0.1% gain. In other words, as the chart below shows German factory orders have just suffered their worst three, post-Reunification months outside of the late crash itself, falling at a 28% annualized rate, to take the total back to where it first stood over five years ago. Reaction is swift: Italian and Spanish bonds immediately drop, with the yield returning to 6.23% and 5.52%, forcing the ECB's monetization actions to have to fight not only "speculators" but also reality.

Many market participants and non gold and silver experts tend to focus on the daily fluctuations and “noise” of the market and not see the “big picture” major change in the fundamental supply and demand situation in the bullion markets – particularly due to investment and central bank demand from China, India and the rest of an increasingly wealthy Asia. The central banks of India and China are rightly believed to be again quietly accumulating gold and the IMF figures do not include this potentially very important and significant source of demand. China’s gold reserves are very small when compared to those of the U.S. and indebted European nations. They are miniscule when compared with China’s massive foreign exchange reserves of over $3 trillion. The People’s Bank of China is almost certainly continuing to quietly accumulate gold bullion reserves. As was the case previously, they will not announce their gold bullion purchases to the market in order to ensure they accumulate sizeable reserves at more competitive prices. They also do not wish to create a run on the dollar – thereby devaluing their sizeable reserves. The deepening Eurozone debt crisis and real possibility means that central bank demand will remain robust and may even increase in the coming months.

Yesterday we reported that in the aftermath of MF Global, and concurrent with Greece nearly allowing democracy for one brief second, European banks had scrambled to put a record amount of cash with the Federal Reserve. Next we get confirmation from the ECB that like in the US, so in Europe, in the absence of any confidence in one another (ignore Liebor, which while up again is and has always been a collusive joke intended to convey bank strength), the only place banks have left to dump money is the ECB. As of this morning, a 16 month high of €275 billion in cash had been parked with Mario Draghi, an amount which is promptly removed from the Keynesian money multiplier myth, and which confirms that there is a behind the scenes liquidity panic unlike anything we have seen since Lehman, and in fact, as the second chart from Sean Corrigan showing ECB fixed and deposit usage as well as Fed reverse repo and overall foreign bank cash parking, the liquidity in the market now from a European point of view, contrary to what broken indicators may show, is the worst it has ever been with nearly $1.6 trillion in liquidity removed from broad circulation and parked with either just the Fed or the ECB. Translated: as goes democracy, so goes confidence.