Archive - Nov 6, 2011 - Story

Having retraced almost 61.8% of the September drop, Gold's recent run up - as the USD strengthens no less (from 10/28) - suggests some demand for safety is back (or more simply is the demand for German Gold making the German's hoard a little more?). Silver is actually outperforming from Friday's close but remains below Friday's highs for now.

As China 'threatens/promises' liquidity injections to its banks, Greek politicians argue over premium parking spaces, US brokers/exchanges squabble over the MF capital leftovers, and global liquidity goes from bad to worse - perhaps it is time to take a step back and focus on what really hasn't seemed to matter - the economy. Ray Dalio published his Template For Understanding back in October of 2008 and has recently updated it (as of October 2011). For your Sunday evening reading pleasure - "How the Economic Machine Works and How It Is Reflected Now". Critically, the hedge fund manager provides a framework for considering what he believes are the critical Three Big Forces: trend line productivity growth, the long-term debt cycle, and the business/market cycle.

Three of the smartest strategists at Goldman, Huw Pill, Francesco Garzarelli, and Peter Oppenheimer, have released what one could tentatively call a white paper on the "next steps" for Europe. Far from being the traditional permabullish sellside drivel, this is a must read note, as it cleanly lays out the risks for the Eurozone from this point. The note focuses on three key aces: 1) fiscal consolidation and the ongoing role of the ECB in the future of a Eurozone which still has no fiscal cohesion (which makes sense: just like in the US, the Fed is aggressively putting the ball in Congress' court, as neither the monetary nor fiscal apparatus has any interest in being blamed for ongoing economic deterioration, so in Europe the ECB wants a federal union, complete with Eurobond issuance powers, so it is not in the cross hairs: alas, European politicians realize this is career suicide and the question remains: when push comes to shove, and saving the Euro requires career harakiri from politicians, will they step up to the plate?); 2) Italy, of course, as the country under the spotlight now and going forward; and 3) what the above two mean for BTPs and thus the European (and Global) equity markets. The sense we get from the Goldman trio is that while the company which has just spawned Europe's latest central banking head, while cautiously neutral is pushing for a downside case: after all what better way to unlock the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen true potential, than with a full blown crisis...

Even as the EURUSD is surging because of, uh, we are not quite sure - HFTs hitting all stops most likely, it is only 9 short hours until BTPs, that one and only fulcrum security for the entire European continent reopens. And while for Greece getting a new government, even if one headed by a former Fed member is somehow good news (we wonder how the people will react knowing that their fate as debt slaves repaying European banks has just been sealed for a few more months), in Italy government "stability" (we realize the comic value of this statement) is the key to prevent a blow out to the 10 Year BTP, and the launch of a domnino cascade that will stop only with French OATs, and potentially rip through through that final firewall: Germany (with or without BuBa's billions in gold reserves... which we can only hope are not parked with the New York Fed). So back to Italian government "stability" which according to France 24 is not doing that hot. "Tens of thousands of Italians gathered in Rome on Saturday to protest Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's tackling of the country's sovereign debt crisis. "Silvio out" was the rallying cry for the large crowd that took part in the rally organised by the Democratic Party, the country's main opposition movement. Some demonstrators poured scorn on the prime minister after G-20 leaders humiliatingly put Italy's struggling economy under surveillance, amid a lack of trust in Berlusconi's reform pledges. At the summit in Cannes, the billionaire prime minister played down the gravity of the economic crisis with a trademark quip, claiming that "restaurants are full and the planes fully booked." "I go to restaurants... to do the washing up," read one banner at Saturday's mass demonstration." And the kicker is that over the weekend enough defections from his party have taken place which according to many, but not Silvio, are enough to lose him his majority: "There is growing concern Berlusconi no longer commands enough loyalty among MPs to ensure the quick passage that European and international financial officials say Rome must achieve to avoid falling victim to a dramatic debt crisis like that bringing Greece to its knees...  "We don't want elections. We want to govern," Berlusconi added." So much for democracy in yet another country, but he does bring up a fair demand, one shared by the increasingly more skeptical holders of BTPs. Because when Silvio finally falls, all bets are off.

The last few years have exposed many of the previous masters-of-the-universe for the beta-hugging, momentum-chasing, herd-like leveraged (and occasionally unethical) monkeys that they are. There are many exceptions to this rule, however, and some research by Oxford University sheds some light on how future performance of a hedge fund is considerably divergent based on that hedge fund's revision of performance in global hedge fund databases. It may seem odd to many that the performance of a fund is 'flexible' but this relates to the voluntary reporting of changes from the initial performance to the latest print for that period's performance. The research finds that since 2007, while revisions are relatively balanced (between positive and negative), funds that revised their performance have drastically lower performance (and dramatically higher fund outflows) than funds that did not 'revise' their performance. With trust being such a valuable asset nowadays, it seems giving managers a second chance has perhaps been academically proven a losing bet (Meriwether, Corzine, and many others) and maybe (just maybe) honesty pays!

The following cable from US ambassador to Germany Philip Murphy ("Ambassador Murphy spent 23 years at Goldman Sachs and held a variety of senior positions, including in Frankfurt, New York and Hong Kong, before becoming a Senior Director of the firm in 2003, a position he held until his retirement in 2006") "CONFIDENTIAL: 10BERLIN181" tells us all we need to know about what has been really happening behind the smooth, calm and collected German facade vis-a-vis not only Greece, but all of Europe, and what the next steps are: "A EUROZONE CHAPTER 11: DB Chief Economist Thomas Mayer told Ambassador Murphy he was pessimistic Greece would take the difficult steps needed to put its house in order.  A worst case scenario, says Mayer, could be that Germany pulls out of the Eurozone altogether in 20 years time.  In 1990, Germany's Constitutional Court ruled that the country could withdraw from the Euro if: 1) the currency union became an "inflationary zone," or 2) the German taxpayer became the Eurozone's "de facto bailout provider."  Mayer proposes a "Chapter 11 for Eurozone countries," which would place troubled members under economic supervision until they put their house in order.  Unfortunately, there is no serious discussion of this underway, he lamented." This was In February 2010. The discussion has since commenced.

Have a sinking suspicion that the way the Eurozone has handled the past week's Greek threat has set the stage for the collapse of the Eurozone (here's looking at you Italy, over and over) now that Merkozy has made the possibility of a country leaving the Eurozone all too real? You are not alone: Morgan Stanley's Joachim Fels has just sent a note to clients in which he not only commingles three of the catchiest and most abused apocalyptic phrases of our time ("Emperor has no clothes", "Water Pistol not Bazooka"  and "Pandora's Box") he also warns, in no uncertain terms, that "by raising the possibility that a country might (be forced to) leave the euro, core European governments may have set in motion a sequence of events which could potentially lead to runs on sovereigns and banks in peripheral countries that make everything we have seen so far in this crisis look benign." And when a major investment bank, itself susceptible to bank runs warns of, well, bank runs, you listen.

Here is the latest installment in the tragicomedic drama that just. won't. end

• PAPANDREOU TO STEP ASIDE AS PRIME MINISTER; NEW PREMIER MONDAY
• GREEK PRESIDENCY STATEMENT SAYS PAPANDREOU WON'T LEAD GOVT
• GREEK PARTIES AGREE TO FORM UNITY GOVERNMENT, PRESIDENT SAYS

Lastly, why decide today, what you can put off until indefinitely:

• GREEK PRESIDENT TO CHAIR MEETING OF PARTY LEADERS TOMORROW

Most likely the outcome will be that predicted by To Vima hours ago, with PASOK's L-Pap in charge, and a New Democracy vice premier. In other words: meet the new boss - same as the old boss, only this time with the Fed's blessing.

Headlines only, via To Vima, for now but G-Pap appears to have lived up to his word for now with L-Pap taking over. Lucas Papademos will be the new PM with Venizelos and Dimas as deputies. We still don't have a formal announcement from the government: it wouldn't be the first time a Greek media outlet has frontrun the desired outcome...

Jim Grant, whose Grant's Interest Rate Observer has been one the world's most informative premium newsletters since 1983, has long been one of Zero Hedge's favorite commentators, not least due to his convergent ideas on monetary policy and the role of central planning in the world, which as Arthemis Capital presented very vividly last week, is the sole marginal decider of risk in the world's capital markets (and thus the most critical shadow political force the world, or rather its bankers, has ever unleashed upon itself). So while we await any news out of Greece, however non-eventful they may be, and at best will see the placement of one Pap ("G"), with another Pap (the "L", who as we profiled is nothing but yet another puppet of the Federal Reserve), here is a compilation of James Grant's best moments on money, banking, central banking, gold and the Federal Reserve System, courtesy of Gresham's Law. It is no wonder that Ron Paul recently said that he would choose James Grant as Fed Chairman if elected.

They say a week is a long time in politics. Last week, quite frankly, a day seemed a long time with the rapidly unfolding events surrounding the European sovereign situation and the G20 summit generating a lot of market volatility. Greek PM Papandreou survived the vote of confidence on Friday with a majority of three and is now trying to form a government of National Unity. With opposition leader Samaras still calling for elections, this political impasse may well continue for the time being. Greece is widely considered to ‘run out of money’ in mid-December; while this may continue to unnerve the market over the possibility of a hard default, a month is probably an eon in politics and a lot could change very quickly. The same could be said for developments in Italy. PM Berlusconi remains under pressure and media reports suggest he has lost his parliamentary majority after a party rebellion on Friday. European and international policy makers continue to pressure Italy to undertake the necessary reforms to reduce the country’s debt level. The IMF will step in to monitor Italy’s efforts to implement austerity and growth-boosting measures, but the fund’s offer of a loan was rejected by the prime minister. Relatedly, over the weekend, ECB’s Mersch was quoted as saying that the ECB had debated whether to continue buying Italian debt if a step-up in the reform effort was not forthcoming.

With Greece once again likely to dominate newsflow, the question of whether G-Pap will step aside, as he promised, will be one everyone will demand to see answered. Especially Europe. As Reuters reports, "the European Union turned up the heat on bickering Greek politicians on Sunday to agree a crisis coalition, demanding progress towards backing an international bailout deal in the next 24 hours. In a sign that Greece's political deadlock may be easing under EU pressure, a senior socialist said Prime Minister George Papandreou had made clear he would resign once a coalition deal was done, possibly as soon as Sunday night." Yet the career politician has pulled the last gambit and has thrown the "coalition" government choice straight in the arms of his nemesis, New Democracy's Antonis Samaras, and the president: "Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has asked the president to host talks between himself and opposition leader Antonis Samaras after a Sunday cabinet meeting, a source at the prime minister's office quoted the premier as telling his cabinet." In other words, if nothing is resolved, G-Pap can tell a furious Europe, "we tried" and blame the opposition, in yet another attempt to simply win political brownie point. Yet time is running short for a final solution: "With euro zone finance ministers due to meet on Monday, senior socialist lawmaker Telemachos Hitiris said: "Everything must be done within the day, otherwise tomorrow it will be hell." How many times have we heard that before. And it very well may be hell, however it will no longer come from Greece but from Italy, whose 10 Year bonds closed at the lowest price ever and where a margin raise by LCH now appears imminent, making another step function move lower almost inevitable. Either way, Greece will be fun to watch as all the hopium has been spent and no more cans can be kicked.