Archive - Nov 2011 - Story

With Europe set to close shortly, it just may be the case that the relentless headline barrage of rumors, lies and other European sourced imports will cease at least for a few hours. So while we are awaiting to see what Syria and Iran's (not to mention Russia and China's) response will be to the latest Arab League 24 hour ultimatum, here is today's open thread to kill the boredom until we get a chance to express our thanks for all the selling opportunities about to unfold, and until we get to find out if one can buy that completely unnecessary 9th plasma (for 50% off because in America spending money is saving) while dumping BTPs from a WalMart store at 3am in the morning.

If anyone is wondering why the collapse of MF Global after the discovery of its commingling and theft of client funds was the single worst thing that could happen to market confidence, then look no further than the small Baltic country of Latvia where precisely what Jon Corzine's firm did to its clients, has happened at the bank level. Businessweek reports: "Lithuanian prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Antonov and Raimondas Baranauskas who are former shareholders of Bankas Snoras AB. Both men are suspected of embezzlement and document forgery, the Prosecutor General said in a statement on its website today. Baranauskas is also suspected of accounting fraud and abuse of authority, it said." Kinda like Jon Corzine, if not by the actual authorities, then by everybody else. And just like in the US where the lack of confidence in the system following the MF filing, so in Latvia the people have decided to hit the ATMs first and ask questions later. "“This money was the bank’s clients’ money,” said Irena Krumane, head of Latvia’s bank regulator, on Latvian Television last night. Krajbanka will most likely be liquidated because the bank doesn’t have the resources to meet depositor and creditor demands unless the Lithuanian government decides to recapitalize the lender, said Janis Brazovskis, the lender’s administrator, in an interview with Latvian Independent Television program 900 Seconds today...Depositors can withdraw 50 lati a day beginning today for the rest of the week, said Krumane at a press conference." At today's rate this is about $95. Which is why what happened next, as shown in the pictures below, was to be completely expected, and is a perfect indicator of the collapse in liquidity and credibility of our own system where commingling, unlike in Latvia, goes unpunished.

UPDATE1: ES -4pts from close yesterday now (-17pts from overnight highs)

UPDATE2: EURUSD below yesterday's lows

From the moment the words left Merkel's lips this morning that 'conditions weren't right' for euro-bonds and would send 'completely wrong signal', risk assets started to crack lower. Both ES and European markets are now well below yesterday's lows as EURUSD also turns red and sovereign spreads start to break wider (and bear flatten) again.

Belgium just can't get a break. While its simultaneously arguing with France and Luxembourg over Dexia's bailout burden and suffering under a total lack of government, Merkel's unequivocal comments on Euro-bonds did nothing to save the ailing nation. Then business confidence prints worse than expected continuing its worse slide since 1993. Not only are Belgian government yields at record highs but so is the spread to German Bunds (at 350bps) and French OATs as Dexia's credit also cracks to record wides.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated and Middle East tensions are escalating globally with Russia appearing to be prepared to risk conflict over Syria with NATO and the US. Yesterday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened to target and, if necessary, destroy the U.S. missile defence shield in Europe once it is built. A marked deterioration in US–Russian relations and concerns of a new ‘Cold War’ may support gold prices.  While all the focus has been on Europe, and to a lesser degree the US in recent months, two of the other largest debtor nations in the world, Japan and the UK (including corporate and bank debt), have been under the market's radar.  This will change soon and will likely lead to the next phase of the global financial crisis. The fact that we have a global debt crisis which will almost inevitably lead to an international monetary crisis is as of yet not acknowledged or realized by the markets and the media. Today, the IMF warned in a new report that market concerns over fiscal sustainability could trigger a "sudden spike" in Japanese government bond yields that could "quickly" render the nation's debt unsustainable as well as shake the global economy. 

The entire hopium driven rally from yesterday afternoon on a Reuters report that Germany may be warming up to the idea of Eurobonds destroyed by one word out of place, in this case Merkel's who just said that "she stands firmly against joint Euro-bonds." Translation: market will have to punish EURUSD far more for her to change her mind.

It is in French but it is really a body language kinda gig. They promise to do everything they have to save the euro. In other words they are as clueless as always. The important thing is that Sarkozy just said they have agreed to abstain from making demand on the ECB. So...no more pressure to monetize?

Just a step behind the Chinese as usual, and just in time to kill a modest EURUSD rally. Also on the same day as the first mass strike in Portugal which reminds us that everyone will want a piece of the debt reduction pie.

Arguably the least biased (or perhaps least cognitively dissonant) of the major ratings agencies, China's Dagong has just moved Portugal's rating to junk (BB+) from comfortably investment grade (BBB+) - a 3 notch drop. The rating agency also left the peripheral nation on negative watch. This action follows Monday's Greek downgrade from C to CCC. Is this a ploy for better entry levels when they save the world with their EFSF-buying bazooka? Or more likely a more honest reflection of a debt-laden, slow-growing, austerity-facing nation burdened with inadequate leadership and an inability to control its own fate?

Earlier today, we presented the latest developments in the escalating possibility of an imminent air (and potentially land) campaign targeting Syria by the "western world", a move that would infuriate not only Iran, but also Russia and China, both of which have made it clear they would not sit idly by and let such an "aggression" stand. Now it is Russia's turn to retaliate. Cutting straight to the chase - in a nationally televized appearance by Russian president Dmitry Medvedev: in response to what the Russian believes is an active incursion and a potential act of eventual aggression on behalf of NATO countries in Eastern Europe (and hence the US), he he said the following (7 minutes in): "First, I am instructing the Defense Ministry to immediately put the missile attack early warning radar station in Kaliningrad on combat alert. Second, protective cover of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons, will be reinforced as a priority measure under the programme to develop out air and space defenses. Third, the new strategic ballistic missiles commissioned by the Strategic Missile Forces and the Navy will be equipped with advanced missile defense penetration systems and new highly-effective warheads. Fourth, I have instructed the Armed Forces to draw up measures for disabling missile defense system data and guidance systems if need be... Fifth, if the above measures prove insufficient, the Russian Federation will deploy modern offensive weapon systems in the west and south of the country, ensuring our ability to take out any part of the US missile defense system, in Europe. One step in this process will be to deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad Region"

As America prepares to spend its meager savings (which today were reported to have increased modestly from 4 year lows of 3.3% to 3.5%) and dip even more in debt on yet another epic shopping exodus which begins in just over 24 hours and continues through the end of the year, whereby people are somehow once again fooled into believing they "save money" by "spending money", those with a more pragmatic eye may wonder if this will be the weakest holiday shopping season in a decade, if the economy indeed mimics the stock market (the opposite, not so much), and whether it is now time to finally short consumer discretionary stocks with impunity. Goldman's Zach Pandl answers this question and more with his "Q&A on Holiday Shopping." To wit: "The US consumer looks mixed heading into the holiday season. On the one hand, growth in consumer activity slowed significantly this year. On the other hand, the most recent spending numbers have shown an incremental improvement.  In addition, job growth has been holding up, which should underpin spending. Retail industry groups expect year-over-year growth in holiday sales of 2-3%, down from a 4-5% increase last year. The GS/ICSC 2011 Holiday Spending Intentions Survey also seems consistent with slightly slower growth than last year." Naturally, this being Goldman, if there is a way to take the other side of the bet (or do what GS is doing and not its clients) that is probably not such a bad idea.

In the aftermath of today's so-called failed 10 Year Bund auction, the number of explanations seeking to goal seek some preconceived theory as to what happened has soared with justifications ranging from the amusing to the bizarre to the outright ridiculous. Here is the bottom line: "failed" Bund auctions, in which the Buba (Bundesbank or the German monetary authority) steps in to "retain" an unbid for amount and hit a maximum issuance happen all the time. In fact literally all the time as the inset chart shows. Such is the Buba charter - some European countries fail to issue the maximum amount (such as Spain and Italy in the past week), others see the central banks filling the demand. This has nothing to do with implicit or explicit monetization (because if it did then every Primary Dealer takedown in a US Treasury auction would also constitute monetization), or with some opaque negative repo prevention scheme (incidentally negative repo rate in the US bond market happen all the time - see here for instances in just the last week). It has everything to do with lack of demand at a given price. Nothing more, nothing less. And while it is intriguing to fabricate complex theories about broken secondary conduits or what have you, the explanation is far simpler. As SocGen puts it: "The fact that the Buba was forced to retain the biggest share of the sale in recent memory (see chart) is clearly a sign that some investors are no longer showing up or have started to buy considerably less, preferring other fixed income or alternative safe havens." No need to conceive an explanation where simply supply and demand will suffice. And in this case there was not enough demand at prevailing yields. And that in itself is the most ominous explanation because as SocGen concludes, "certain investors are starting to overlook the eurozone altogether". Lastly, for those who look at things only from a theoretical standpoint and forget there is an actual market, the direct implication is that Euro Country X spreads to Bunds just collapsed. And presto - with one "failed auction, European periphery, and that now includes France, Balgium and Austria, all suddenly look much better. Never waste a crisis...

The last 5 minutes of today's somewhat tempestuous day saw a rather dramatic plunge in ES on very heavy volume which could easily be flash-crash-worthy in its description. Having tested VWAP a number of times during the day and been unable to make any progress above it (suggesting program selling was active), the final desperate straw broke the camel's back into the close as ES dropped 1% in less than 5 minutes as volume dwarfed the rest of the day with machines fighting each other to exit at a reasonable price. Furthermore, the drop in ES was very much standalone as other risk assets did not correlate instantly and only started to drop after a delay led by equities plunge. ES is holding these losses after-hours at a steady 1160. Where's Waddell & Reed when we need them?