Archive - Dec 6, 2011 - Story

Remember that 50 bps RRR cut a week ago which was supposed to telegraph to the market that the PBoC has commenced a monetary easing phase? It appears quite a bit more telegraphing will be needed: unlike in the developed world, where the central banks are entirely in control of capital markets, in China capitalism still has a foothold, however weak, and a result the Shanghai Composite is indicating the direction of where the global economy is truly headed, pro forma for that ridiculous most recent speculation that the US will decouple form something or another.

It looked like S&P had gone off script. They slapped a negative watch on any euro country that didn’t have it already. They even came out with details about which countries faced 1 notch and which faced 2 notches. I’m glad I didn’t have this information on Friday as I wouldn’t have bet we would be up 1.5% on the week given that move. Now, it looks like this move has been incorporated into the plot. It puts added pressure on the countries to come to a “resolution” this weekend. It is being viewed as increasing the likelihood of a deal since the countries all want to avoid the downgrade. If they do reach a deal, then taking them off watch could add to the post photo-op rally.

While everyone was celebrating "record" black Friday sales, we noted that the bulk of this was due to sales channels taking on negative margins, and due to a "cash for clunkers" like effect in which future sales were pulled forward. Sure enough, we now learn that this is precisely the case, after Reuters reports that "more than a third of U.S. shoppers are already done with most of their holiday shopping, a survey showed on Monday, signaling that retailers need to offer bigger incentives to win sales in the few weeks before Christmas... About 32 percent of people surveyed by America's Research Group said they finished a majority of their Christmas shopping in November. Last month included Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving when stores pulled out all the stops on discounts to woo shoppers during their biggest season of the year. More than 6 percent completed most of their holiday shopping in the first weekend of December." In other words so much for holiday shopping as a driver of stocks, as there is no way that the remaining two thirds of shoppers can carry the entire season regardless of what massive discounts retailers provide. This is also quite disturbing for US GDP which relies primarily on PCE as a driver to growth (although when that fails retailers can pretend they are stocking up on inventory), and will likely mean that banks which most recently (as of a week ago), had an upgrade round to Q4 GDP will be forced to promptly cut it back down. Lastly, as Rosenberg noted yesterday, once the bills come in January, that's when the wheels will really come off, just in time for the non-extension in the payroll tax.

Japan will reward investors who buy reconstruction bonds with half an ounce of gold, an added incentive that could boost the return by nearly six times according to Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi. Individual investors who purchase more than 10 million yen ($129,000) in the debt with a 0.05 percent return and keep it for three years will receive a gold commemorative coin weighing 15.6 grams (0.55 ounces), the Finance Ministry said in Tokyo today, worth about $948 based on current prices for the precious metal. The offer suggests the return could be boosted to 89,000 yen should gold prices remain at current levels, more than the approximate 15,000 yen one would receive from the bond. The coupon on conventional three-year retail government debt to be sold on Jan. 16 is 0.18 percent. 10 year debt remains near multi record lows of 1%. Silver coins weighing 31.1 grams issued as 1,000 yen currency will be distributed to those who own more than 1 million yen of the bonds, the government said. The coins will be offered for debt going on sale in March. All investors receive a thank-you note from the minister, who showed his to reporters in Tokyo today as proof of his purchase.  Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura also bought the bonds, Azumi said, without saying how much.  This is a sign that the Japanese government like governments internationally is very concerned that they will not be able to sell their government debt.

Following yesterday's announcement that the ECB had purchased a new record total of €207 billion in peripheral bonds, many were focused on today's ECB sterilization announcement to see if, like last week, there would be a failure in the repo market, and less than the full amount of bonds to be sterilized, would be bid. As it happens today the ECB lucked out, after 113 bidders submitted bids for €236 billion in bonds, at a rate of 0.65%, with the threshold €207 billion amount being covered comfortable at 1.19x. Yet one wonders what is it that caused the €50 billion swing in available capital for European banks (last week the tendered for amount was €194 billion). What is ironic is that earlier today, the ECB provided €252 billion in a liquidity providing operation (MRO) to 197 banks at a fixed rate of 1.00%. In other words, banks borrowed €252 billion at 1% from the ECB to lend €207 billion back at 0.65% to the ECB. And that is called a "successful" sterilization.

• Merkel, Sarkozy Unite as S&P Issues Warning (Bloomberg)
• Austerity package key to Italy averting collapse (FT)
• GOP Rejects Democrats' New Payroll-Tax Bill (WSJ)
• Europe can get out of crisis (China Daily)
• Belgium, at Last, Forms Government (WSJ)
• Geithner to Add US Weight to Euro Zone Talks (CNBC)
• Asia Faces ‘Much Greater’ Global Risks: ADB Says (Bloomberg)
• Understanding sectoral balances for the UK (FT)

The onslaught of 2012-Outlooks continues to unmercilessly suggest bullish biases in most risk assets, particularly higher quality equities and credit, and while almost as ubiquitously noting the binary nature of outcomes in the medium-term and significant downside potential. Most of the upside/downside biases reflect heavily on Europe's outcome which in turn seems to have the majority forecasting recessionary contraction being 'stabilized' by a round of quantitative easing by the ECB. BofA's Global Asset Allocation group notes, however, as the Fed has recently discovered, QE alone may be enough to stabilize a situation but a credible plan for growth is harder to achieve. Furthermore, in a topsy-turvy potentially chaotic manner, they point out that the market's expectation of QE has been enough to calm waters (or more aptly levitate markets) leaving policy makers with little choice now for fear of the instability created by not delivering what Mr.Market (as we have been noting for weeks - pressure for a 'crash' from the likes of Deutsche Bank) demands or expects. But away from European disunity, if that is possible, BofA's key global risks include a worse-than-feared-EU-recession, Mid-East unrest, US fiscal tightening, and a China hard landing but given their perspective on the extreme levels of bearishness, they prefer to hedge upside risk from their correctly cautious view.