Archive - Feb 22, 2011 - Story

While many watch the revolutions starting virtually on a daily basis in the "developing world", few are concerned that these have any chance of occurring in the United States: "our society is far more cohesive and far less stratified" the rebuttal logic goes. Is it? Over the past two years, the one social class that has received the most voluminous amount of opprobrium is the ubiquitously derogatory "bankster" which represents far more a wealth and income qualification, that a job description. Americans it appears are becoming increasingly sensitive to the stratification within our own society, even if on a subliminal level. And while we have repeatedly shown before in visual terms just how polarized US society is, it worth reminding every few months or so, that the US is rapidly becoming a banana republic not only in its approach to legislative and judicial matters (not to mention regulatory), but toward the distribution of income and wealth. Not that there is anything wrong with a stratified society: after all, that is the purest hallmark of a capitalist society. However when one introduces the basest elements of socialism (and, ostensibly, communism and fascism according to some) in its midst, then things get far more transparent and subjective. Below we once again bring to our readers attention, in easily digestible format, the dramatic schisms that continue to tear through the fabric of US society. And if there is anything that the revolutions in the Maghreb should have taught us by now is that extreme social polarization can only last for so long before a violent snapback restores equilibrium, usually through bloodshed and death.

The quietest bank run that has so far completely evaded mainstream attention, that of Korea, is spreading, and an eighth bank has now shuttered after "Domin Bank, a savings bank with a capital adequacy ratio below 5
percent, voluntarily decided yesterday to suspend its operations
temporarily because of massive withdrawals." As JoongAng reports: "The decision took both depositors and financial regulators by surprise
since it was the first time that a local bank shut its doors on its own." Apparently the courageous decision by the Financial Services Chairman Kim Seok-dong to deposit $17,864 in a troubled bank has not done much if anything to prevent the locals from realizing that their banking system is built on a house of cards.

Following the previous post taking a tangential if insightful peek into Gaddafi's personal eccentricities, we next look at something far more important, where once again courtesy of Wikileaks disclosure, we find that the Libyan Sovereign Wealth Fund (Libyan Investment Authority, or LIA), whose holdings were first dissected on Zero Hedge, and whose AUM is supposedly a massive $32 billion, has "several American banks each managing USD 300-500 million of the LIA's funds." Perhaps now that UniCredit has plunged by 12% in the past few days due to the recognition of Libya's involvement in the bank it is time for the US banks who manage billions in capital for the LIA, to step up. After all even most of the country's ambassadors have vocally recused themselves of any association with the government. Perhaps our banks can show a comparable level of objectivity and at the loss of a few million in management fees clean their conscience, before someone does it for them. Also curious is the fact that the LIA appears to have had its own direct involvement with a certified ponzi after having been approached by both Stanford (with a rumored investment by the LIA being the end result) as well as the one, the only, original (post-modern) ponzmaster, Bernie Madoff.

Following today's rambling hour + long filibuster on TV, suddenly many Americans, most of whom had never heard of Gaddafi, suddenly either have a definitive opinion of his persona, or are quite curious by it. Alas, since he appears to have little to no presence in the US yellow press, we are forced to resort to Wikileaks cable 09TRIPOLI771 "A GLIMPSE INTO LIBYAN LEADER QADHAFI’S ECCENTRICITIES" where in addition to all the things one would expect to find in such a cable, we learn of a peculiar love interest involving the Libyan dictator: namely a "voluptuous blonde" Ukraninian, who is supposedly his personal nurse, but more importantly, concubine. So for the gossip crowd here goes: "Qadhafi relies heavily on his long-time Ukrainian nurse, Galyna XXXXXXXXXXXX, who has been described as a “voluptuous blonde.” Of the rumored staff of four Ukrainian nurses that cater to the Leader’s health and well-being, XXXXXXXXXXXX emphasized to multiple Emboffs that Qadhafi cannot travel without XXXXXXXXXXXX, as she alone “knows his routine.” When XXXXXXXXXXXX’s late visa application resulted in her Security Advisory Opinion being received on the day Qadhafi’s party planned to travel to the U.S., the Libyan Government sent a private jet to ferry her from Libya to Portugal to meet up with the Leader during his rest-stop. Some embassy contacts have claimed that Qadhafi and the 38 year-old XXXXXXXXXXXX have a romantic relationship. While he did not comment on such rumors, a XXXXXXXXXXXX recently confirmed that the Ukrainian nurses “travel everywhere with the Leader.”

The silver price has bounced 27% since January 28, a huge advance for a measly 16 trading days. It's already soared past its 2010 high and was selling for less than $16 this time last year, a double in 12 months. So, is it pricy? Or should we ignore the run-up and keep buying? I've read a few articles that say we should expect silver to drop to the $25 level, and one pinpointed $22. Others, of course, see bullish tea leaves for the near term and believe it's headed higher. Of those that assert silver will decline, most believe it will be temporary, though one writer claims the bull market in precious metals is over (I think he's a holdout from the gold-is-a-bubble camp). These authors could be right about a near-term decline, but I'm less concerned with what the price does this month or even the next few months, and more focused on where it's likely headed over the next few years. Caution: the chart ahead may cause excitement. While there are lots of reasons to be bullish on silver, what everyone really wants to know is how high the price can go. Here's one hint, based strictly on historical price performance.

Looking at the price of HPQ after hours, one would think that the company was a biotech which just missed its Phase 3 trial. The rapidity with which it has lost $10 billion in market cap does not leave many other options... Of course, there is always the chance that Ben Bernanke may have just said no to future purchases of green ink, although we deem it highly unlikely. The real reason for the plunge in the stock was the company's earnings, which confirm that the new paradigm of economic growth, may be just slightly problematic. While the company missed on revenue, coming in at $32.3 Bn on expectations of $32.97 Bn, it is the forecast that left many stunned: HPQ now sees Q2 adjusted EPS $1.19-1.21 vs. Exp. $1.26, and full year revenue of $130-131.5bln vs. $132-133.5bln previously, and consensus of USD 133.1bln. So now in addition to plunging margins (Cisco) we are finally starting to see headline growth... And all the sellsiders continue to hike the 2011 EPS on what again?

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 22/02/11

When we asked yesterday whether Ghadaffi will pull an inverse Louis XV and burn down all of Libya's oilfields on his way out (to either Saudi Arabia, or the afterworld) a la Saddam Hussein in Kuwait, we assumed this was a rhetorical question. Alas, we did not realize the kind of irrational madman we were evaluating. Turns out the rhetorical is about to become all too real: according to Reuters, "Time magazine's intelligence columnist reported on Tuesday that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has ordered his security forces to sabotage the country's oil facilities, citing a source close to the government. In a column posted on Time's website, Robert Baer said the sabotage would begin by blowing up pipelines to the Mediterranean. However he added that the same source had also told him two weeks ago that unrest in neighboring countries would never spread to Libya -- an assertion that has turned out to be wrong." Should the dictator indeed proceed and destroy the country's oil infrastructure, which as we noted earlier exports over 1.5 million barrels of crude a day, mostly to Italy, Goldman may have to revise it $97.50 WTI target double digits higher.

The technicians out there will be salivating over the action in the ES today, which has continued to drip all day, and is now a point away from the 20 DMA at 1,311.30. In this relentless meltup, this moving average has been breached just several times since Jackson Hole. Yet the one to keep an eye out for is the 50 DMA, which has been a key support over the past 6 months. Should that level be taken out (1,282), the next level is 1,234, after which there is no support for a long, long time. Yet the most, or least for the cynics, surprising observation is that today's ES volume is about to hit the highest of the year, taking out the last January surge... which also was on major downswing. At least the banks made some money on equity commission trading, although with the Treasury curve flattening rapidly, that may not be much of a consolation.

Mohamed El-Erian made one of his regular media appearances today (in addition to his almost daily Op-Ed, released earlier) appearing on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and talking the developments in the Maghreb. While the full highlights are presented below, there are two items of note. El-Erian once again hits on what we believe will be the keyword of 2011: stagflation. To wit: "we have to appreciate that in the west, what is happening in Egypt and North Africa results in stagflation in the short term. So higher inflation and lower growth because of higher oil prices that take away purchasing power and transfer wealth somewhere else; because of higher geopolitical risk, which tends to diminish animal spirit and therefore impact investment; and let's not forget that the Middle East is a market, particularly for European exports. So from an economic perspective, it is important for the west to understand that these are stagflationary winds that have been added to the global economy." It is important, but not necessary: as long as the manipulated, liquidity glutted market continues to misrepresent the true state of the economy, nobody will care until it is too late. And speaking of "too late", validating our sarcastic observations over the past several weeks that the dollar is no longer the "flight to safety" currency (that would be the PM complex, and the swiss franc if anything), is the Pimco CIO's suddenly very dour outlook on the weakening US Dollar: "It is a warning shot to America that we cannot simply assume flight to quality, flight to safety. That people are starting to worry about the fiscal situation in the U.S., worrying about the level of debt and what they're hearing about states and municipalities. I would take this as a warning shot that we cannot assume that we will maintain the standing of the reserve currency as we have in the past." That's a given - the question however remains, which fiat currency, if any, is willing and ready to step in and replace the USD? With all eyes continuing to be look at the CNY, how long before China finally takes the plunge to find out just who is the real reserve currency in the world?

For those who are still confused why the latest trending index tracking the "revolutionariness" of various countries is called the shoe-thrower index, take one look at the Al Jazeera video below. It captures the popular Libyan reaction to Ghadaffi's 90 minute rambling monologue. The item about to make an impact with the screen, you guessed it: a shoe.

Suffering from revolution burn out? After following all the newsflow from the past month it is understandable, but hang in there while we shift focus back to Bahrain, which had been oddly quiet for the past day. Not so much anymore after BBC reports that a fresh anti-government protest was just launched, joined by tens of thousands of Bahrainis. In the small country numbering just 1.2 million citizens this is a sizable turnout, especially following recent swift and brutal "reprisals." From BBC: "The people want the fall of the regime," protesters chanted on the
first organised rally in the kingdom since protests erupted last week. The protesters are putting the government under pressure,
analysts say, extracting concessions such as the release of political
prisoners." The protester demands are simple: "Aside from the prisoner release - no details of which have yet been
given - they want the government to resign, the deaths of protesters to
be investigated, and political reforms that will lead to a
constitutional monarchy."

One of the cute side-effects of the Fed's third mandate has been the successful elimination of all market shorts. A quick update of the NYSE short interest indicates not only the deplorable presence of shorts in the market (those entities who provide a natural bid when the market is plunging), but that the bulk of the market meltup over the past several months has been due exclusively to shorts covering existing positions. Well, with short interest now at a multi-year low of 12.4 billion shares (lowest since 2007), compared to 14.5 billion just after the Flash Crash, a 13.6 billion average over the period, and the lowest amount since the Lehman failure, our only question is when the market plunges, like it is doing today, who will be the natural short covering bid when stocks are in freefall?

Today's $35 billion 2 Year bond auction priced at 0.745%, on top of the WI. Yet despite the seeming lack of weakness, the internals were not pretty, with the Bid To Cover coming at 3.03, the lowest since the 2.93 at the May 2010 2 Year auction. This alone would indicate a material weakness in the bidside. What is also troubling, is that just like in the 10 Year auction from earlier this month, the Direct Bidders declined notably, coming at just 6.81%, compared to an average of 15% in the last year, and the lowest since November 2009. And while Indirects came in roughly as expected, Primary Dealers took down 61.85% of the auction: the highest amount since July 2009. The dynamic of bond bidding are certain changing as there is a big rotation going on behind the scenes. Alas, there continues to be insufficient information to determine just where the bidding interest is disappearing from. That said, we expect the "UK holdings" in February when they are released some time in May, to be flat or even decline.

Goldman's David Greely released a crude update factoring in the Libyan revolution in his latest estimates. As it hit the tape ahead of the force majeure announcement later in the date, the predictions in it are especially relevant as pertain to future crude price dynamics. Specifically: "We expect Libya’s crude oil production to reach 1.6 million b/d in 2011, 1.8% of global supply. Should this production be lost to the market, it would require over half of OPEC’s spare capacity to replace. This would dramatically pull forward the return to a structural bull market that we saw occurring in 2011H2 and 2012. Already, the spread of political instability to Libya has sent Brent prices to a post-financial crisis high, close to our 12- month target. The continuing spread of protests through North Africa and the Middle East presents a clear upside risk to our forecasts." And while the focus on Goldman's report is on the spread between WTI and Crude, a topic beaten to death previously, and where the firm sees it going, the more important observation is Goldman's updated price forecasts for Crude and WTI. There are as follows: "We are lowering our WTI-Brent spread forecast to -$5.50/bbl, -$4.50/bbl, and -$3.50/bbl on a 3, 6 and 12-month horizon. This lowers our WTI price forecasts to $97.50/bbl, $100.50/bbl and $103.00/bbl and raises our Brent forecasts to $103.00/bbl, $105.00/bbl, and $106.50/bbl on those horizons." For those who are confused by the disconnect between the first part of this Goldman's argument (price surge on Libya), and the second (WTI price drop due to a spread compression), you are not alone.