Archive - Feb 9, 2011 - Story

Just like in yesterday's 3 Year bond auction, the surface results belie the fireworks within the internals in today's auction. First, the superficial data: the $24 billion in 10 Years came at a 3.67% high yield, the highest since April 2010 (around the time the market starting nosediving and had to be rescued from a double dip through QE2). The Bid To Cover was 3.23, compared to 3.3 previously and 3.17 LTM average, so nothing special, right? Wrong. The take down is where the true story is: after Indirect interest in yesterday's 3 Year bond plunged to a multi-year low, today nothing could be further from the truth as the Indirect Take down was an all time high 71.3%, with foreign central banks taking down $17 billion of the $24 billion total. And maybe even more curious was that for the first time in over 2 years, the Direct Bidders were virtually non-existent, taking down a tiny $118K of the $24 million or about 0.5%. Compare this to the 14.9% in the last auction, and the 12.21% in the last twelve auctions, and a big red alarm should be going off. Basically, someone said "No Directs" in today's auction: the hit rate was a ridiculous 2.2%! Something major has changed in the auction dynamics and it started with yesterday's 3 Year. We wish someone smarter than us could explain to us how there is such a huge aversion to the short end by Indirects, and such a sudden love affair to the 10 Year, coupled with the complete expiration of the Direct bid.

"Paul Tudor Jones did not issue report on S&P500 or bonds, according to Abernathy MacGregor, public relations firm representing Tudor Jones."

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has lowered its long-term and underlying ratings on the State of New Jersey's general obligation (GO) debt to 'AA-' from 'AA'. "The lower rating reflects our concern regarding the stresses from the state's poorly funded pension system, substantial postemployment benefit obligations, and above-average debt levels," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Jeffrey Panger. The downgrade also reflects the application of Standard & Poor's newly adopted criteria on U.S. states, which more transparently incorporates debt, pension, and other postemployment liabilities, along with other rating factors.

The erosion of the American middle class is of little concern for one simple reason: it no longer matters much on the global stage. All that Global Corporate America needs from America is a stable foundation that won't offer up any surprises or spots of bother. As the discretionary purchasing power of the American middle class erodes, four times as many new potential customers appear elsewhere, hungry to taste the Oreos, become consumed by the iPhone, etc., and ten times as many are potential buyers of toothpaste and other basics. U.S. corporations are pulling $500 billion in profits from non-U.S. sales, and they hold $1 trillion in stashed overseas profits in various tax havens. All the growth in their revenues and profits are coming from non-U.S. sources. Spending $3-$5 billion on lobbying and campaign contributions is an "investment" with extremely high returns: for that small sum, U.S.-based global corporations make sure the U.S. government and citizenry don't become overly burdensome or obstructive.

Wondering why the market suddenly appears as if Bernanke said he thought the dollar has hit a technical bottom? The reason is that there is a rumor (for now) that Paul Tudor Jones has just called a top in the S&P, and is also expecting a bounce in bonds. Unclear if PTJ used the Tepper "balls to the walls" trademark when referring to the selling that may commence. And boy are we hoping the selloff with a huge surge in volume that resulted, is not a response to what one man thinks or else there really is no point in trading anything ever again.

After the ABC Consumer Comfort index yesterday plunged to 2011 lows (stunning we know: don't these ungrateful, unwashed discontents not realize the Russell 2000 is about to take out the Fed's 36,000 limit order) due to surging gasoline prices, today we see precisely what this means from a simple supply/demand perspective. According to just released DOE data, total gasoline inventory has just hit what is virtually an all time high... and certainly the highest since 1990. Surely, this is bullish or something. It is certainly refreshing to see that at least the key equation of economics, that surging price results in plunging demand, has still not been LBOed by Bernankestein.

We have presented this chart before, we are presenting it again. It speaks for itself. We are a little confused where exactly the "3 million "simulated" jobs created" are on this very simple graphic....

Federal Reserve Chairman Rudolph Shalom Von Bernankestein will testify before the House Budget Committee starting at 10 am Eastern today. Congressional employees of the Fed and the Banking syndicate are expected to question the Fed's plans on avoiding inflation and the current unemployment rate. We expect more of the same "QE is working because after spending $2 trillion we got 650,000 part time jobs, and we are certain it is working because rates are surging, and wholesale mortgage are now again at the higest since April, which doesn't make sense but I am a Princeton economist (Ph.D.) and you don't get this complicated stuff."

It was less than three short days ago that we wrote about what is poised to be an imminent surge in corn prices. To wit, we said: "If revised Chinese import estimates by the US Grain Council are even
remotely correct, look for corn prices of $6.80 a bushel at last check
to jump by at least 15% in a very short amount of time. As the FT reports, "Corn prices – and with them, the price of meat – are set to explode if the latest import estimates from China are correct. The US Grain Council, the industry body, said late on Thursday
that it has received information pointing to Chinese imports as high as
9m tonnes in 2011-12, up from 1.3m in 2010-11." Why is this a
concern? Because "the US Department of Agriculture, which compiles
benchmark estimates of supply, demand and stocks, forecast Chinese imports at just 1m tonnes in 2011-12." In other words, the whole forecast supply-demand equilibrium is about to be torn to shreds." And with the market being perfectly efficient, and not dominated by dumb robotic HFT trading at all, it has taken the "market makers-cum-liquidity providers-cum-no volume meltup facilitators" just over 48 hours to understand what this means. And what it means practically is another limit up open in the grain.

• Two Fed Skeptics of Bond Purchases Say Inflation Underscores Stimulus Risk (Bloomberg)
• 'Heavy Lifting’ Looms as China Rate Below Inflation (BusinessWeek)
• Rothschild to take control of the weather next (EarthNews)
• Underground world hints at China's coming crisis (Telegraph)
• Wait A Minute--Why Should I Hate Bernie Madoff? (Forbes)
• Egyptian Unrest Throws Deficit Goals Off Course as Yields Rise (BusinessWeek), all they need is Paulson pitching blank check TARP now
• SEC to Wean Markets Off Credit Ratings (Reuters)
• You don't say: Commodity prices could squeeze economy, just as in 2008 (Barrons)
• And speaking of, did anyone even notice that Moody’s lowered Jordan's debt outlook (BusinessWeek)?
• Asia Fights Inflation With Stronger Currencies  (WSJ)

With the physical gold market remaining very small when compared to the futures and paper gold market (futures, CFDs etc) there are increasing concerns of illiquidity due to the scale of demand and lack of supply. Pertinently, the size of the physical gold and silver bullion markets is tiny compared to the size of international equity, bond and currency markets. Not to mention the hard to fathom humongous international derivatives market (see chart below). The gold market remains one of the most liquid markets in the world. The market is more liquid than many government bond markets in Europe, with daily trading volumes normally exceeding $100 billion. UBS wrote about “illiquid conditions” in the gold market this morning. They did not clarify but they may have meant illiquidity in the physical gold bullion market.

At 10am today, Ron Paul will convene a sub-committee hearing with the topic “Can Monetary Policy Really Create Jobs?“. It really is too bad that Ben Bernanke will not be at this hearing. But if he was, we have a feeling the hearing would be like a scene right out of “The Godfather II” with Bernanke playing the part of Frankie Pentangeli. In fact, we just happen to have a transcript of how that hearing would have sounded...

Remember when in December, to much fanfare, the Irish bail out was announced, which included a package of €85 billion financed by everyone, up to an including the country's Pension fund (the NPRF)? Well, less than two months later, it has become clear that the funded component is woefully low as the true extent of losses is starting to be appreciated. According to the Irish National Asset Management Agenc, the country's two key insolvent banks will need a fresh infusion of €12 billion. What this means is that as a result of current estimate of full pay outs by NAMA, the property loans underwritten by the banks, are now being discounted by a ridiculous 58%! For the captcha challenged, this means a more than half write down on loans. And Ireland is solvent how again? At least the country's pension funds are being depleted to fund a good cause: banker (read senior bondholder) well-being...

Something curious was noted this morning on CNBC Europe: namely a reference to an article in the Shanghai Financial News, according to which China is quietly (or not so quietly) trying to orchestrate a 30% drop in real estate prices, in the form of a "Thunder attack" which combines increased purchase costs, property taxes as well as the rise in interest rates. If proven true, this is a major flashing red sign of just how out of control inflation, especially property and real estate, is in China, and that future CPI readings (not the official Politburo number, but that which people actually have to live with) will be getting progressively worse. Also, for the government to step in with such a drastic measure, it must mean that the discontent on the ground must be approaching a fever pitch.