Archive - Mar 18, 2011 - Story

According to a recent report from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission the California Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant (built in proximity to the San Andreas fault) which everyone always points to as the biggest earthquake risk in the US, is actually ranked 9th in the US in terms of earthquake risk (we somehow really doubt this). The top one? The same we wrote about yesterday as having had a leaking seal for the past 18 years according to the Union of Concerned Scientists - Indian Point in Buchanan, NY. Of course its proximity to New York City has immediately stirred cries of concern from the world's most banksterous city and demands for a shutdown by Andrew Cuomo. It has also prompted Reuters to release an evacuation map of the surroundings should "something" go wrong with Indian Point, an event which will likely only further instill a sense of soothing calmness and a "tranquility effect" in the New Yorker community.

No more copy paste from the world's biggest bond deflationist. A day after the NYT announced it will soon see its traffic plunge courtesy of a paywall, David Rosenberg says he is going the premium route as well. "Since first publishing Breakfast with Dave when I started with Gluskin Sheff + Associates back in May 2009, we had always notified our readership that the report was going to be made available on a free trial basis. For clients of our firm, the report is still going to be made available for free. But for non-clients, the free trial period will finish by the end of March. At that time, the Breakfast (and other meals) with Dave will become a paid subscription service with an annual fee of CAD $1,000." Sad - no more copy paste from one of the smarter macroeconomists out there.

Following the clusterflock of black swans that has hit world markets in the past month, the Fed has realized it needs to act quick to distribute money to undercapitalized bank shareholders ahead of the upcoming bank sector bail out, which will naturally be funded by taxpayers all over again. According to the Fed, the 19 worst banks in America (in other words those that are allowed to issue dividends) are: Ally Financial Inc. (no, really, f/k/a GMAC is healthy), American Express Company, Bank of America Corporation, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation, BB&T Corporation, Capital One Financial Corporation, Citigroup Inc., Fifth Third Bancorp, The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Keycorp, MetLife, Inc., Morgan Stanley, The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc., Regions Financial Corporation, State Street Corporation, SunTrust Banks, Inc., U.S. Bancorp, and Wells Fargo & Company. The surge in share prices of the mentioned banks confirms that this is nothing but the latest round of Fed-endorsed taxpayer rape, which nobody can do anything against as the Fed is an "unsupervised" entity, DC is owned by Wall Street, and the peasantry is downloading porn on their iPad.

From Kyodo: "Mizuho Bank said Friday the number of unprocessed transactions as a result of its computer system malfunction since Tuesday stands at 910,000. The unprocessed transactions include salary transfers to customers of both Mizuho and other banks, according to the key arm of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Mizuho is aiming to fix the system malfunction by the end of the three-day weekend on Monday, it said." It seems reasonable to suppose that Japanese financial workers will be happier once they get their money, considering the prevailing mood in the country (incidentally we are confident a UMichigan confidence read in Tokyo would come at an all time high right about now). And don't fotget - sellside analysts were expecting an unpaid salaries number of 910,200, so the beat is decisively bullish.

After travelling in the first class confines of the Gulf/Jetstream for the past 3 days, the Fukushima radiation has finally reached California. This happens just as The Hill reports Obama has oredered a full review of all US nuclear power plants. Look for the nuclear pair trade to become all the rage in the next week. From AP: "Very low concentrations of radioactive particles believed to have come from Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant have been detected on the U.S. west coast, diplomatic sources said on Friday."

The one aspect of the Japanese crisis that has so far received little attention is the component parts crunch that is starting to create its own earthquake through the supply chain. From Kyodo: "Concern over a shortage of components for manufacturers is spreading globally as many Japanese companies have been forced to suspend production in the aftermath of last week's devastating earthquake. Some of the effects have already surfaced, with U.S. automaker General Motors Co. suspending operations at a plant in Louisiana, while Chinese companies that rely on Japan-made parts are rushing to buy semiconductors." And while none of this matters to markets still basking in the radioactive warmth of the Bernanke Put, some are already sensing the impact on everyone's darling stock - Apple. iSuppli reports that the Japan quake could create iPad and iPhone shortages, a meme that is already pushing AAPL stock down. "The aftermath of the Japanese earthquake may cause logistical disruptions and supply shortages in Apple Inc.’s iPad 2, which employs several components manufactured in the disaster-stricken country—including a hard-to-replace electronic compass, the battery and possibly the advanced technology glass in the display, IHS iSuppli research indicates. The IHS iSuppli teardown analysis of the iPad 2 so far has been able to identify five parts sourced from Japanese suppliers: NAND flash from Toshiba Corp., dynamic random access memory (DRAM) made by Elpida Memory Inc., an electronic compass from AKM Semiconductor, the touch screen overlay glass likely from Asahi Glass Co. and the system battery from Apple Japan Inc." And the last nail is that as more production scrambles to be pushed to other locations, margins will plunge for all tech companies, forcing a wave of preannouncements within 2-4 weeks and crushing bottom lines. Welcome to the re-depression.

And just as the Fed confirms its first direct currency intervention since 2000 (who knew NYU interns could multi-task so well between stocks, bonds and FX, incidentally today's POMO is a lethargic $1-2 billoin monetization of TIPS), the USDJPY takes its first dip below 81 since the "Honda" Accord announcement last night. According to several sources the Fed spent 50 million in USDJPY purchases. Alas that will not be enough. And with the USDJPY continuing to leak lower, take back what we said about the multi-tasking efficiency of 25 year old FRBNY interns-cum-world tyrants in waiting. The attached charts shows why the Honda Accord (as it has now been tentatively named) will need many more steroid injections, which according to Nomura have already cost the ECB at least $5 billion.

Even though last night's G7 Yen intervention still has no name, it likely will very shortly. After all, all key previous global currency interventions have received names according to where they took place, notable ones being the Plaza Accord from 1985 which took place in the Plaza hotel in New York in 1985, which was supposed to depreciate the dollar against the Yen (in essence the opposite of what happened last night), and the Louvre Accord from 1987 which was the aftermath of the Plaza accord which worked so well two year later the central powers met again to halt the ongoing dollar depreciation (primarily against the Yen and the Mark). So how successful have these operations been historically? Well, when it comes to killing the dollar (Plaza) the success rate was stunning. So stunning in fact that as noted, another accord had to be implemented to halt the $ decline. That one did not work out so well: in fact following the Louvre Accord the dollar continue to decline for another 2 years! So if last night's attempt to strength the dollar (weaken the yen) is to be judged by historical precedent, the half life of the G7 intervention may be extremely short lived.

Libya announces it accepts the UN resolution, encourages opening of all dialogue with all sides, according to Libyan Foreign Minister. Also, the country has agreed to an immediate ceasefire. WTI drops sharply by $23 on the news, as futures spikes. From the AP: "Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa says Libya is declaring an immediate cease-fire and stopping all military operations. Friday's decision comes after the U.N. voted to authorized a no-fly zone and "all necessary measures" to protect the Libyan people, including airstrikes. Koussa says the cease-fire "will take the country back to safety" and ensure security for all Libyans. But he also criticized the authorization of international military action, calling it a violation of Libya's sovereignty." In the meantime, the French foreign minister, eager to blow stuff up, says to remain careful on Libya ceasefire announcement. And of course - Libya has just won the first diplomatic battle. It can now continue doing what it was doing in complete secrecy, while any invasion by US and ally forces will be deemed a provocation by the world, or so Libya believes.

Just a troubling headline for now. Considering Reactor 3 was the one most devastated following its explosion earlier this week, this could be a truly disturbing development. This is especially true consider Reactor 3 is the only one at Fukushima whose fuel rods contain Plutnoium.

Following now pervaseive allegations of a massive Fukushima accident cover up by the Japanese government including non-disclosure of real radioactive levels, the Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said on Friday that the government has been dislosing all the information it has on the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant according to Reuters. "We have been honestly saying that the situation with the nuclear plant accident remains very serious," he said in a televised address to the Japanese people marking one week since a devastating earthquake and tsunami struck northeast Japan. At this point we are willing to believe him: judging by the increasingly improvised Japanese response to the catastrophe nobody has any idea what is really going on or how to handle it properly. Which is why very expect to hear increasingly more about the "Chernobyl solution" - or the shotgun "resolution" of the problem by literally burying it in sand. From Reuters: "A "Chernobyl solution" may be the last resort for dealing with Japan's stricken nuclear plant, but burying it in sand and concrete is a messy fix that might leave part of the country as an off-limits radioactive sore for decades. Japanese authorities say it is still too early to talk about long-term measures while cooling the plant's six reactors and associated fuel-storage pools, comes first. "It is not impossible to encase the reactors in
concrete, but our priority right now is to try and cool them down
first," a Tokyo Electric Power official told a briefing on Friday." Alas if and when the plan to restore power to blown up cooling plants (has anyone actually seen the before and after pics of the reactor) fails, this will be the only option.

Futures up this morning. Apparently quantitative easing, world strife, and currency intervention are interpreted as bullish. ECB executive board members told reporters that the Japanese earthquake will not affect intentions to raise interest rates. The European Banking Authority released details on its 2011 stress tests. The assumed GDP contraction shock will be 4% v 3% in last year’s tests. The EBS will only look at sovereign risk in banks’ trading books, rather than their overall portfolios, disappointing markets focused on an unfolding sovereign debt crisis. The U.N. Security Council at last came to an agreement yesterday for a no-fly zone over Libya. German parliament voted yesterday to prevent the ESM from buying government bonds, clashing with Merkel’s recent negotiating positions. The G7 together stepped into the foreign exchange market to help support the ailing yen after a request to the G7 from the Japanese. The buying effort is intended to put a limit on Japan’s rapidly rising exchange rate. The move has already made the yen fall and calmed markets worldwide.

As we are experiencing a furious regime change, the sellside positional updates are coming fast and furious. The latest major recommendation change comes again from Goldman which has just reiterated its belief gold will reach its 3 month target of $1,480 shortly. Of course, after a Cramer recommendation to buy the metal, this is the only call for a higher gold price that should be of great concern to everyone. From Goldman: "We expect gold prices to rally toward our 3-month price target of $1480/toz, and continue to recommend a long gold trade. While the protests and threat to oil supplies in the Middle East and North Africa drove COMEX gold prices to a new record high of $1437/toz on March 2, the events in Japan have paradoxically sent gold prices back below  $1400/toz despite the ongoing decline in US 10-year TIPS yields. Given the decline in US real interest rates, we see the recent retracement in gold prices as offering a good buying opportunity, and maintain our long gold trading recommendation as we expect gold to rally to our 3-month price target of $1480/toz."

At this point in the intervention cycle one would have to be a very brave person to dare to do anything in the FX market: the rules are now changing constantly as the central planners shuffle pieces to avoid giving the impression that the world's financial balance is now hanging by a central bank-woven thread. In the enivronment Goldman's Thomas Stolper has just come out with a lone EURUSD recommendation. We refuse to even analyze what this may mean with regard to Goldman's positioning, suffice to say that Goldman will have to do the opposite to what its clients are trading. However whether it is an initiating or closing trade is unknown. So while the big banks are playing hot currency potato with each other, Goldman now sees the EURUSD rising from the 1.41 range to 1.50, with a 1.35 sto: "US balance of payment pressures and the declining Eurozone fiscal risk premium have been our main G10 themes for some time. The latest evidence re-enforces these trends and suggest EUR/$ can appreciate further from current levels. Other factors, like higher oil prices and monetary policy differences between the inflation targeting ECB and dual-target Fed further strengthen the theme." As to whether this is also merely another attempt to by Goldman to push stocks nominally higher due to real value destruction (plunging dollar) is without question.

Presenting an updated Fukushima status update and timeline in which we read for the first time that Fukushima has considered a "Chernobyl Solution" - alas that leads us to believe that there is good reason to assume that the information-starved situation is just as bad as Chernobyl.