Archive - Mar 2011 - Story

Markets in negative territory this morning on the combination of Spain’s credit rating downgrade and an increase in oil prices linked to Libyan President Qaddafi’s airstrike against his country’s own oil export centers yesterday. The U.S. budget remains in limbo as the Senate rejected both a Republican and a Democratic plan yesterday, showing that some compromise is necessary for the budget to move forward. Note that the government’s spending authority ends on March 18. Trade balance figures to be released this morning are expected to show a larger deficit for January at -$41.5BE v -$40.6 prior, owing to the increase in the price of oil imports. Treasuries rallied yesterday as European risk became more apparent. Today’s initial jobless claims are estimated to increase slightly to 376KE from last week’s 368K, the lowest level in nearly three years.

The great tightening wave in Europe is coming any minute now.... Just not yet. Below is Goldman's take on today's unsurprising move by the BOE to keep rates unchanged (although judging by the GBP some actually were surprised).

As expected, after hitting a simply ridiculous level of over 1.40, the EURUSD has started to materially roll over, and is now down to 1.383, with a first interim target in the mid 1.20s. The reason, in addition the billions in debt rollover this month (see Portugal's very weak auction yesterday), is the realization that the banking system in a Europe which is allegedly poised on the edge of tightening, is as weak as ever, and will have to take another dose of stress test placebos which will do nothing to assuage skepticism as spreads hit another day of record levels. Today, Moody's added insult to injury after downgrading Spain for the second time in 3 months, from Aa1 to Aa2, with a second level of insult arising from Moody's assessment that Spain may also suffer due to the recent surge in oil and see further downgrades as the oil rise would have Spain credit implications, adding that Spanish government has little control over region's spending.

RANsquawk European Morning Briefing - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 10/03/11

RealtyTrac has released a whopper of a foreclosure update. While total foreclosure activity had dropped in November when the first hint of fraudclosure was made evident, it subsequently stabilized and even increased slightly in January. Well, in February it took another step function lower, declining by a whopping 14% sequentially, and 27% Year over Year: the biggest decline in history. “Foreclosure activity dropped to a 36-month low in February as allegations of improper foreclosure processing continued to dog the mortgage servicing industry and disrupt court dockets,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “While a small part of February’s decrease can be attributed to it being a short month and bad weather, the bottom line is that the industry is in the midst of a major overhaul that has severely restricted its capacity to process foreclosures. We expect to see the numbers bounce back, but that will likely take several months. And monthly volume may never return to its peak in March 2010 of more than 367,000 properties receiving foreclosure filings.” What is even more disturbing is the following: "Scheduled judicial foreclosure auctions (NFS) decreased 7 percent from
January and were down 49 percent from February 2010. Scheduled
non-judicial foreclosure auctions (NTS) decreased 11 percent from the
previous month and were down 7 percent from February 2010." This means that banks are now actively halting process in that most critical of non-judicial states - California, which means the bottom is about to fall off the market. And with the monthly cost of associated litigation in the  tens of millions for the big mortgage lenders, it is now a certainty that the banks are massively underreserved for the litigation tsunami that is coming their way, especially with MERS now out of the picture and on the verge of seeing its entire business model unwind, rendering tens of millions of mortgages potentially null and void.

That didn't take long. Ann Althouse writes: "Meade, who is in the building now, tells me, by phone, that he saw a
window on the Wisconsin Avenue side of the building opened and
protesters entering through that window. He thought it seemed as if someone in one of the Democratic legislators'
offices had opened a window to let them in, and — once they were in —
many doors have been opened all around, and people have streamed into
the building. He says he counted 3 "troopers" — I'm not sure what the
official job title is for these security people — and that they were
absurdly overwhelmed by the crowd." So...Wisconsin is not Cairo?

And so the biggest farce in US politics so far in 2011 (absent of course from the whole debt [ceiling|target] debate, not to mention the ridiculous budget, but those are topics for another day) is about to come to an end. After earlier tonight the Wisconsin Senate used a "procedural move on Wednesday to pass the proposal without the Democrats present" thereby rendering their three week long self-appointed exile to Illinois moot, "the leader of Democrats in the Wisconsin Senate says his caucus will return to the state, but he won't say when." The loophole used by the Republicans is that in lieu of passing the full budget bill, lacking a Democrat vote for a quorum, they instead formed a special committee to isolate only the collective bargaining portions of the bill and passed it with just 19 votes. The Seattle Times reports: "the floor session lasted just minutes, and the state Assembly is
scheduled to take up the measure on Thursday morning. That's the last
step before it can go to Walker for his signature. Senate Democratic leader Mark Miller of Monona says Democrats will
"join the people of Wisconsin in taking back their government," but he
refused to say when." In other words, the first attempt at forced austerity in the US is about to be ancted. What happens next will likely not be pretty as it suddenly becomes evident that the whole "cost-cutting" thing that is so popular in Europe is about to really come to the world's most entitled country.

The European Union is facing a similar set of events as those leading up to the 2008 US financial crisis. In 2007/08 the US economy was teetering on the brink of recession and the talk among many was that of a goldilocks soft landing. Economic data was still somewhat positive including job growth while equity markets were still holding up. The housing market was beginning to show signs of exhaustion. Manufacturers were confronting rising input costs while consumers were paying more at the pump. The Federal Reserve introduced a new chairman who tried to calm markets with his infamous quote on March 28, 2007, "the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained."

Those who have been following our series of US naval updates will not be surprised to learn that US forces are amassing around Tripoli. The LHD-3 Kearsarge is now within striking distance, and certainly within No Fly Zone enforcement, while the CVN 65, which according to some prior reports had already passed the Suez, is waiting just on the Southern tip of the canal. This is somewhat odd as it indicates that Naval command is still split as to where the Enterprise may be needed more: Libya or off the Persian Gulf where the Vinson is keeping watch for a potential Iran escalation. Of course, should Iran flare up, it is likely that Pakistan, Afghanistan and even India could rapidly go downhill which is why the US will probably need two aircraft carriers before it considers a full on attack against Iran. But the most surprising development was the launch of all three San Diego based aircraft carriers which three weeks ago were all sitting peacefully, their crews binging in the Gaslamp District, and since moving on to new deployment areas, most of which in the Pacific theater. Which means that very soon, the US will promptly need to get the 7 aircraft carriers that are currently at home port back in commission as things are heating up faster than the US can appropriately cover.

Having worked at PIMCO for 4.5 years, I can tell you that this kind of a major allocation decision was not reached overnight nor was it reached without considerable debate by every senior member of the firm. In other words, the decision to lower total US Treasuries to 0% was discussed by senior portfolio managers, senior account managers and many prominent outside consultants for days and perhaps even weeks before it was finally implemented. They never do anything over there without vigorous debate and discussion. For example, Alan Greenspan is a paid consultant to the firm and often participates in their quarterly Secular Outlook meetings. I don’t know if Mr. Greenspan participated in the debate about this decision but I wouldn’t be surprised if he or others of his stature did. By this move PIMCO is clearly indicating, almost by putting their reputation on the line because imagine the underperformance they face if they are wrong, that bond yields in the US will be rising soon, US Treasury prices falling and liquidity drying up to some degree.

It was to be expected: after 7 consecutive weeks of inflows during which the market drifted aimlessly, while seeing insiders dump a few billion to witless retail hot potato chasers, forming what some are calling a quadruple top, not to mention various revolutions and now counter-revolutions in MENA, the retail investor has once again said enough and turned their back on stocks. The beneficiary: taxable bond funds, which saw a whopping $4.8 billion in inflows, despite attempts by everyone in the propaganda machine to dissuade investors (read Baby Boomers) from putting their money into fixed income and reroute capital to stocks. Well, in an age of immediate demanded gratification and POMO-adjusted Newtonian third laws, every future inflow better be met with a greater than expected spike in the market, or the resulting outflow in the next week will be vicious. Also those hoping that the ongoing outflow from munis will finally end, will have to wait at least one more week: the week ending March 3 saw $711 million in muni outflows. Of course, following today's spanking by Jeff Gundlach we wouldn't hold our breath on a massive resurgence in capital allocation to an asset class which one of the greatest fixed income minds is due for a 15-20% correction. Yet what truly boggles the mind, is Legg Mason's response on how the $672 billion asset manager plans to deal with billions in sudden redemption requests: "Those outflows will be largely offset by market appreciation," said Nachtwey, chief financial officer of Legg Mason." In other words, the Ponzi will continue... or else Legg Mason is dunzo.

The following exchange between Ben Bernanke and Senator Kirk is a must watch for everyone who wonders how Ben Bernanke justifies the fact that America is now an open Ponzi scheme. Kirk's question "in laymen's terms this is one part of the government lending another part of the government money, which would not let to long term confidence once the American people understood the basics a little bit better" relates to the open monetization that the Fed does each and every day at least until the end of June. What Kirk did not ask is what happens when the American people realize just how truly preposterous the Ponzi is, and that all the interest "paid" by the Treasury to the Fed ends up being remitted as cash right back to the Treasury as revenue in essence incentivizing the Treasury to spend and borrow more in order to earn more! This is the most circular Weimarian nightmare scenario imaginable, and we can only hope that "the American people" understand this as soon as possible. As to Bernanke's surprise that the US had a currency without any Federal debt to back it up (yes, it is possible to live within one's means, even for a central bank) can we remind the Chairman that the gold on the Fed's balance sheet, all eight tungsten thousand tons of it, is actually Marked to Market to almost $300 billion, and can by definition be used as a pledge to any liability, such as a currency or excess reserves. But oh yes, how could we forget, using just gold as an asset would never afford us the kind of adamantium price stability that we have seen in recent times. Plus how on earth could one infinitely dilute the dollar if the Fed's balance sheet was limited by actual "assets" that do not require Hewlett Packard tech support every now and then.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 09/03/11

Two days ago we pointed out the dramatic change in the ratio of copper to gold, which moved at the highest rate of change since June of 2010. Today, the rate of change is even higher at 4.3%. And with copper starting to seriously take on water, a curious observation emerges: is the gold-copper ratio, which on an inverted basis was virtually a tick for tick correlation conjugate for the S&P, now simply a harbinger of where the stock market is headed. All else equal, once the Chinese exuberance dynamics which appear to have stalled out in copper, move to equities (which as Finisair demonstrated yesterday is only a matter of time) we believe, as the attached chart shows, that the fair value of the stock market is about 120 points lower. Since this is a relative comparison, those who do not wish to trade a single series, can put on a pair trade of short the Gold/Copper ratio (predicting it will decline from the current 3.4 - it is shown inverted on the chart below) and short the S&P in expectation of a compression.

Yesterday we tried (and failed) to make a big deal of the fact that Primary Dealers flipped 53% of the 7 Year Bond just issued two weeks ago (apparently nobody in charge cares or understands what this means, except for Bill Gross of course), so today we will go for an encore, and courtesy of today's $6.69 billion POMO, point out that the Primary Dealers have now managed to flip 50% of the just issued 5 Year Bond CUSIP: 912828QJ2, which was issued on February 23, and which saw $20 billion allocated to Primary Dealers. Well, on the Pomo from March 2, the Fed monetized $4.9 billion, and today this was followed up with another $5.1 billion. The monetization farce is now moving to every single OTR bond, and nobody in congress dares to ask why or how much money the Primary Dealers are making as a result of this travesty. Which is why going forward we may or may not report on bond auctions that have a Primary Dealer component (so all): in essence with the Fed guaranteeing to buy back half of every Primary Dealer take down, it is no longer an auction. Luckily, there is a 35% SOMA limit on how many bonds the Fed can monetize per CUSIP. Oh wait, that was scrapped as part of QE2. It is now a true Vaseline free for all.