Archive - Apr 2011 - Story

Yesterday we learned that in borrowing a page right out of 2010, when the Greek government was mounting a full frontal assault against CDS traders everywhere (only for Eurostat to tell us that CDS traders had absolutely no impact on Greek solvency), Greece is once again scapegoating unrelated third parties for its problems. In this particular case Citi London trader Paul Moss, who is being interrogated by Interpol because of a recap email indicating Greece may, gasp, restructure (or, as it isknown in enlightened circles, conduct a "liability management exercise"). Yet when Greece reads the following note by Citi's Stefan Nedialkov, it will most likely issue a cease and desist order in perpetuity against Vikram Pandit's bank. Nedialkov's summary (released one day after Moss' April 20 note): "If a 42% haircut is taken in addition to these measures, we estimate Debt/GDP falls to below 90% in 2013 and below 60% in 2020." The problem is that the market will likely give Greece at most a few months of breathing room in exchange for just a 90% debt/GDP reduction. If truly engaging in a liability exercise of some nature, Greece will likely pursue a permanently viable option. And as Nedialkov indicates, in order to achieve a far more credible 60% debt/GDP ratio, the country would need to take a 76% haircut now, or do nothing for five years, and eliminate a whopping 94% of its debt in 2015. Since the market is already expecting roughly a 50% haircut it remains to be seen just how much further bond prices will plummet, and how much bigger the ultimate impairment on Citi debt, and European banks, Greek pension funds and local bond investors, will ultimately be. One thing is certain: with Greek 2012 debt/GDP expected to peak at 159.4%, the country will restructure, and a a vast swath of insolvent European banks are about to see the tide go out.

While the majority of the world was in a sleepy mood courtesy of closed core capital markets, events in Syria were anything but. From Reuters: "Syrian security forces killed almost 90 protesters on Friday, rights activists said, the bloodiest day in a month of escalating pro-democracy demonstrations against the rule of President Bashar al-Assad." Yet while many are quick to dismiss "yet another MENA revolution", Emad Mostaque, MENA strategist at UK's Religare Capital Markets begs to differ. "The market implications of a breakdown in Syria would be profound, but likely not be felt immediately as it doesn’t tick the boxes for proximity (such as Bahrain) or oil production (such as Libya). Iran’s influence would be curtailed, as would support for Hezbollah and Hamas." But the mittelspiel does not end there, and will likely have even greater consequences on Israel: "A third intifada between Israel and Palestine is already likely following a series of rather unpleasant attacks from both sides and a Syrian breakdown would heighten the chances of an Israeli attack on Lebanon, particularly given the success thus far of their new Iron Dome anti-ballistic system (even stops mortars)... A conflict like this would raise the chances of a follow up attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, particularly if Hezbollah’s retaliatory rocket capabilities were neutered." So it appears that the old bogeyman from the summer of 2010, Iran's nuclear power - the source of so much Stuxnet (of unknown origin( consternation, is about to come back front and center all over again. And when one factors in the ubiquitous presence of CIA operatives (flipflops on the ground) in the region (always disclosed well after the fact) one wonders just how staged this latest "revolution" truly is.

Since posting on Zero Hedge over the next 24 hours will be more sporadic than usual, please use this space for any news, discussions and general observations about life, the universe and everything.

If there was one thing TEPCO was consistent in during the entire Fukushima crisis (and will be for a long time), was its ability to simply "disappear" data that was not palatable for general consumption. Well, it only took MIT 6 months to "TEPCO" its Billion Price Project. Launched early in 2011, the MIT BBP was the only place where one could get an objective look at how inflation was trending in the US and across other countries in the world (and as one can imagine, it was "trending" laughably higher than the CPI). Well, as of this morning it appears that each individual country's data has been "disappeared", and conveniently replaced with the "blended average" also known as the "World Inflation Index." For all those who previously had at least one recourse to see just what liberties the BLS was taking with its imaginary CPI data, well, that recourse is now gone.

Zero Hedge is not a political blog. We take every opportunity to expose the hypocrisy and corruption on both sides of the aisle. Granted over the past 2 years we have seen quite a bit more of it from one side, but that has been primarily due to that one side being in control, and as always happens to whoever is in charge, screwing things up. For the most part, we try to be at least modestly picky about how we express ourselves now that politics and finance have become more intertwined than ever in history. The same can not be said about the following clip from Drinkingwithbob who appears to have said "basta" to diplomacy, and delivers one of the more memorable rants against what everyone knows to be true but few are willing to say out loud. If nothing else, it is... cathartic.

From Goldman's David Kostin: "Positive revenue surprises averaged 2% and helped drive the strong earnings season to-date with 28% of S&P 500 stocks now having reported 1Q results. Earnings surprises have averaged 11% and analysts have lifted their EPS estimates for all four quarters. Energy company revisions are the key reason. Bottom-up full-year 2011 EPS estimate now stands at almost $99, above our $96 topdown forecast. Earnings season continues next week with 178 firms representing 34% of S&P 500 market cap set to report 1Q results."

The most exciting episode of the neverending (and always distracting from far more important matters) political soap opera is without doubt the ongoing debate over the debt ceiling (which may legally be breached as soon as the week of May 1). For what it's worth, this is a complete sideshow as i) the ceiling will be raised, ii) both parties will blame each other for this outcome while shaking hands behind the scenes in expectation of more "gifts" from Wall Street and iii) the world will realize just how broke America is now that its debt ceiling, which we believe will be raised by just over $2 trillion to last the country until after the next presidential election, will for the first time ever be greater than its GDP, an event that has never before occurred. And so the distraction will shift to another even more meaningless debate. In the meantime, few ask themselves the key question: why is there government debt? In that regard, many have made the point against government debt, but few have done so as successfully and as succinctly as Bill Buckler does in his latest issue of the Privateer. In the below segment, Buckler does the definitive and most commonsensical reduction of the "government debt" issue and why what America is doing is nothing short of allowing itself to be hijacked on the road to a dictatorship.

The most concise summary of the key positive and negative events over the past week.

Not content with rising by a dollar during all recent regular work days, silver is now up a buck on a holiday. Doesn't make much sense, but we'll take it.

If rising oil pushes the real economy over the cliff, voters will not be re-electing incumbents in 2012. Welcome to reality, Ben. Your "let's pretend the recovery is real" game is nearing an end. If you push the dollar down any more, then oil will go up and tip the real economy into a recession that QE3 will only make worse as you send the dollar into freefall. If the dollar rises, then your beloved "wealth effect" dies a horrible death on the rocks below. Take your pick, but choose wisely.

It appears rumors that Greece is set to restructure its debt are about to come true. According to Greek daily Ta Nea, reported by the Guardian, "the government was mulling "a velvet restructuring" that would include extending outstanding debt and a voluntary agreement with lenders to modify repayment terms." More: "Greece  is considering ways to restructure its debt – such as by extending the life of its loans – two national newspapers claimed on Friday, joining a flurry of recent reports on the prospect that Athens might be forced to default." Not surprising, this comes hot on the heels of continued lies about the stability and viability of the eurozone and the euro, which recently surged to nosebleed levels only to allow it to drop from the highest possible position when the realization that the dominoes are falling finally sets in. But never one to be bound by the confines of reality, where one is accountable and responsible for their actions¹ (1: except all millionaires and billionaires bailed out by the Bernanke Put), Greece is now calling in Interpol to put the blame for its latest and greatest bankruptcy on a Citigroup trader: "A London trader working for US bank Citigroup  is to be questioned by investigators over an email at the centre of an investigation by the Greek authorities into rumours that Athens could be forced to restructure its national debt as early as this weekend." So, it is a trader fault for pointing out the market's reaction to what is so glaringly obvious even a caveman finance minister from Athens will realize it, and not the fact that one needs to apply a new Excel #Ref! patch in order to express Greek debt to GDP. The lunacy. The lunacy.

It has been done before (here, here and here) and it certainly will be done again. In the meantime, here is Adolf, reprising in his now traditional role as Jamie Dimon, learning that the Comex is out of silver.

Over the past two days we reported (here and here) on the Shanghai trucker protests over high has prices and low wages, which from peaceful promptly turned violent as more people joined the clashes against police (it appears only in America do people not protest these things). Today we present a first person recount of what is really happening in China, as unfortunately nothing coming out of the world's "fastest growing" economy can be relied upon.

According to incoming reports, a protest in Damascus has turned violent and possibly deadly after security forces used teargas and live ammo to disperse protesters. Reuters reports: "At least three protesters were injured on Friday when Syrian forces fired live rounds at a large pro-democracy demonstration in the Damascus suburb of Douma, a witness said. "Thousands took to the streets in Douma. I helped carry three people the bullets hit in the leg," the witness said." Sky News adds: "Syrian security forces have used teargas to disperse protesters in the capital Damascus, according to reports. It follows reports the Syrian army was deployed overnight in the city of Homs - ahead of Friday prayers. Syria's protest movement has promised a day of demonstrations on what it is calling 'Great Friday'." Ironically all this happens just after the country's age old emergency laws were lifted earlier this week "to herald a new era in human rights." Perhaps rights to get shot in the head? Either way, with Syria oil production minimal, do not expect any imminent intervention by the globocops in the imminent future, unless violence threatens to spill over into the Golan Heights.

In response to the president's moronic witch hunt of oil "traders" which, for a POTUS so set on distinguishing himself from the prior administration, was only missing the phrasing "read my lips, no more speculators" for people to suffer the biggest glitch in the matrix to date, we decided to present this note from Jared Dillian, editor of the Daily Dirtnap published back in January discussing the imminent surge in food prices, which however is just as applicable to the surge in any commodity, and most certainly crude. Dillian's point is so simple we are not at all surprised that it is lost on all sock puppets in Washington. "I say that speculators have a very important role to play in setting commodity prices, and the very idea that we would limit the role that speculators play in commodity prices is an early signal that world food markets are about to get a good deal more unfree, which means we are about to undo all the progress we have made in the last fifty years. This is why speculators are important in setting prices. They make money. That is their job. Making money is an end in itself. But an interesting by-product of a speculator setting prices is that he forces the producers of the commodities to respond, and consequently, adjust production." To be sure, there are always those speculators who in their pursuit of price disequilibria, through the wager of capital, will break the law, just as there are those who will commit criminal acts in every aspect of life. But for the most part, speculators operate within the confines of the law, as poorly drafted as it may be. Yet the core point remains: by pushing the clearing price substantially from the equilibrium due to excess demand (or supply) specs merely precipitate an equal and opposite reaction which promptly corrects this disequilibrium. As Dillian concludes when observing a hypothetical explosion in food prices: "Well, guess what: when prices are ten times higher, the market is
going to be full of farmers, and nobody is going to complain very much
about that." Q.E.D.