Archive - Apr 2011 - Story

Yesterday we correctly predicted that the entire 10% silver correction would be momentarily taken out as the Comex news is properly digested. And so it continues - as silver is once again pennies away from $50 and a fresh new nominal all time high, we take a quick look at the futures curve where as expected the backwardation is confirming the "negative convexity" (yes, yes, we know silver is not a duration security) once the $50 stops are taken out will send silver surging to unseen before levels (which also considering it will be at a new record over $50 is pretty much intuitive). In the meantime, the chart below is the worst nightmare of anyone still holding short silver positions. While the near-far contract backwardation was about $0.75 yesterday, it has since doubled in less than 24 hours. We can't wait to see what surprising nuggets the Comex will bring us today.

Not at all surprising, Goldman's economic team continues to (pretend) it is in denial, knowing full well the second it downgrades its Q2 and H2 numbers it is game over. As such its "review" of the ugly Q1 GDP number came out smelling like rainbows and unicorns, namely "this mix of growth - stronger consumption and less inventory building - suggests a bit more momentum heading into Q2." Let's see how this mix is revised in the second and of course third GDP revision. However, where Goldman gets ominous, is its observation of next month's NFP number. If Hatzius is correct (and with his 1.75% Q1 GDP he was the closest of all to the real number), look for the nonfarm payroll number to be beyond ugly, fully opening the door for further QEasing.

Just over a year ago, Econstories managed to successfully, if briefly, fuse the worlds of rap and monetary policy in the form of "Fear the boom and bust" - a Keynes vs Hayek rap anthem. And now, when with every passing day the shamanism of Keynesian voodoo is exposed for all too see, courtesy of the tide of endless credit and free money finally flowing out, we get the sequel. Enjoy.

Our friends at Zerohedge did some excellent discovery and analysis last night on the recent drawdown in Comex Silver stocks eligible for delivery. We have personally seen this activity before, and while we do not doubt the authenticity of the draw down from the Registered (for delivery) stockpile described below; We add that this has happened many times in the past in short -cons meant as exit strategies for big longs. So far, if this is an exit strategy, it is basically what happened in 1997 when Buffet took delivery, but on a much bigger scale, a long –con if you will. But if the reason is that someone bigger that the usual investor community with pockets and a will deeper than all the Bullion Banks combined has decided to de-dollarize their FX reserves, like say China, then this is the way to do it. We think this is real and will describe why briefly after the ZH analysis.

The bottom line: Q1 GDP ex-inventories came at 0.8%, the lowest since Q3 2009. The economy has hit stall speed, and absent another fiscal (nope) or monetary (QE3) stimulus, we will go negative in Q2, now that the full impact of the Japanese economic collapse has forced even the ostriches to pull their heads out of the sand. Alternatively, Bernanke will be stuck with the worst case of stagflation since the 1970s. Rock and hard place: just as we predicted in December 2010. The chart below shows the ugly collapse in the economy in Q1: recall that up to a month ago it was supposed to grow by 4%! Now, ex inventories, it is 0.8%. And most importantly, the strong US consumer, in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures, sees his share of economic growth drop by over 30%, from 2.8% to 1.9%.

Key highlights:

• US GDP Price Index (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
• US PCE Core (Q1 A) Q/Q 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4% (Prev. 0.4)
• US Personal Consumption (Q1 A) Q/Q 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 4.0%)

and the kicker:

• US Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 23) W/W 429K vs. Exp. 395K (Prev. 403K)

More coming

• Most Dealers See Fed Keeping Rates Near Zero (Reuters)
• Japan Economic Data Underscore Impact of Disasters (WSJ)
• China’s Population Flocks to Cities, Grows Older, Census Shows (Bloomberg)
• China Property Slowdown Poses Growth Risks, World Bank Says (Bloomberg)
• Asian Currencies to Appreciate Against Greenback in Second Half, ‘Mr Yen’ Says (Taipei Times)
• Syria's Assad Facing Dissent over Deraa Crackdown (Reuters)
• Spain Calls Draghi ‘Excellent’ Choice for ECB President, Isolating Merkel (Bloomberg)
• German Unemployment Falls Below 3 Million to 19-Year Low (Bloomberg)

Well, the statement was more dovish than I thought - leaving in the extended period language, offset only a little by a slightly more direct reference to inflation. This was the first sign that the conference would be positive for stocks. As soon as it became clear that no questioner would really be allowed any follow up questions, the Q&A took on the 'Does this dress make me look fat?' tone. A few reporters tried to ask some tough questions, but the format made it far too easy for the Chairman to avoid answering in any great detail. There are a few useful takeaways from the conference...

First Q1 GDP estimate, Initial Claims, and Pending home sales. Expect a deterioration in all.

While we still await Jan Hatzius to lower his full year outlook any second now, to keep in line with Bernanke's drastic growth outlook reduction from yesterday's press conference, here is Goldman's Sven Stehn sharing his interpretation of the Fed's "color" from yesterday. The conclusion: "Taken together, Bernanke’s remarks were consistent with our forecast for no rate hikes for a long time to come." And we would go further: just as in 2010, which 2011 has so far been an identical replica of, the second there is a 15% drop in the Russell 2000 (which hit a new all time high yesterday) following the end of the liquidity pump, "economic conditions" will deteriorate, necessitating another loosening episode. And it will come - sooner or later.

At the current rate of collapse, in a few more days the dollar will take out all time lows. Currently holding at 73, after hitting 72.8 overnight, the DXY appears set to test the last support from when the dollar carry trade was all the rage again back in 2008. Of course, for that to happen crude will have to be north of $130, which not even the most incompetent CNBC pundits will be able to spin as positive for corporations (let along the US consumer). It will also mean that any opex inspired corrections in precious metals will not be a frequently recurring phenomenon. But at least Bernanke's plan of inflation our way out of insolvency through a complete currency devaluation is working: after all for all who listened to the Bernanke conference, the only way to rescue the flailing dollar, is first to kill it...

And so the cannibalism at the very top begins. According to a statement just released by Barry Wm. Levine, attorney of David Sokol (who was slated to be the next head of Berkshire... until Berkshire decided to sue him that is), none other than the Octogenarian (soon possibly the Outcast) of Omaha was in fact lying, and arguably committing 10(b)-5 fraud by not disclosing the full details of his and Sokol's involvement in the situation in the Lubrizol proxy. To wit: "Mr. Buffett was told twice, not once, about Mr. Sokol’s ownership of
Lubrizol stock before Mr. Buffett engaged in any discussions with
Lubrizol." And we personally can't wait for Munger to be the next fall guy: we are confident that Charlie will suck it in, like every other good citizen who benefited from the infinite taxpayer largesse. Grab the popcorn - it's dirty laundry "on the record" time.

After 10 A.M. the August 1600 Call buyer came back to the market. Between 10-11:00 am that option was bid and bought, but offers were not lifted as they has been previously. The buyer was patient today. Volatility stabilized and drifted higher. June Calls were still being sold and nothing else was aggressively traded. From there the market moved higher and skew changed dramatically to the calls. The August 1600 Call buyer stepped up his purchasing accordingly. At this point the option term structure became efficient and everything caught a bid on the call side...At about 4:00 the August 1800 Call caught a bid. Several hundred were sold by market makers and spread against the surrounding months...The difference between this month and other months that catch bids is that this is not from retail buying. There is an institutional player who wants to own options. We don’t know that he is going to sell them yet or at any point but regardless, yesterday’s near pin of 1500 was a gift from heaven for this buyer, as he got to accumulate at a discount.

One day to correct 10%, and one day to retrace 76.4%. The HFT robots appear to have really taken over. We can't wait to see what high frequency conversion of registered to eligible silver looks like. We expect a full loss retracement overnight.