Archive - May 11, 2011 - Story

RAB Capital, once the poster child of the London credit bubble, whose assets peaked at $7 billion in 2007, has seen its shares tumble over 30% in afternoon trading, following an announcement that the firm will delist after a terminal surge in redemption requests. From the FT: "RAB, which at the beginning of the year oversaw assets of just over $1bn – a far cry from its peak of $7bn in 2007 – has seen its remaining assets evaporate in recent weeks. Investors pulled $370m from RAB’s flagship $470m Special Situations fund last month when a three-year moratorium on withdrawals finally expired....Since then, clients – fearful of the RAB’s viability – have abandoned the company’s other strategies. The firm’s $120m Cross Europe fund has been swamped by redemption requests, say people familiar with the company. In addition, one of RAB’s remaining star money managers, Gavin Wilson, is to retire from the firm. Mr Wilson’s $250m Energy fund has been one of RAB’s best performing offerings of late." Well, if other, much better managed hedge funds are any indication, Mr. Wilson's Energy Fund likely got annihilated last week, putting the final nail in the 4 year public stint of this vehicle to bring leverage to leverage.

Today, we get the March trade balance and JOLTS reports. Also, the Treasury continues its exercises in debt ceiling breach by issuing another $24 billion in 10 Year notes, while the Fed explains its monetization intentions for the next month as it releases the latest POMO schedule at 2 pm EDT.

On the one year anniversary of its first bailout, things in Europe's basket case are getting much worse once again. Even as senior EU and IMF inspectors arrived in Athens on Wednesday to press Greece to shore up its finances, workers walked off the job to protest against austerity-induced recession, culminating in a 24 hour strike which sees both airports and journalists taking a break from hard work. Oddly ironic this: the "bankers" arrive to make austerity even more aggressive (so there is more value left over to senior bondholders when the bankruptcy commences), just as the country experiences a deja vu moment of strikers on one side and teargas lobbing policemen on the other. Those who wish to follow the protests live, which so far the mainstream media has refused to show, can do so here.

Gold and silver have extended their recovery and may be headed for the fourth day of gains due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, Chinese inflation (+5.3%) and the real risk that rising oil and commodity prices are leading to an inflation spiral internationally and stagflation. German inflation data this morning was worse than expected jumping to 2.7% from 2.3% due to surging energy costs and despite recent strength in the euro. This has led to the euro falling against all currencies and especially against gold. The precious metals are likely to be supported later today when US trade deficit data is expected to be poor with still high oil prices leading to a very large expected deficit of $47.7 billion. This should see the dollar come under pressure and support gold. Stagflation or low economic growth, high unemployment and rising inflation is a clear and present danger to the UK, EU and U.S. economies and other economies internationally. This is especially the case in the UK where house prices have begun to fall again and may be set for sharp falls. Internationally, we are seeing significant debt deflation where the value of goods and assets bought with debt are falling (cars, property etc) while the value of finite, essential goods such as food and energy are rising. Safe haven and inflation hedging diversification into gold is likely to continue as inflation is deepening and there is a distinct whiff of stagflation in the air. It is too early to tell whether the recent sell off is over and a further correction is possible however global macroeconomic conditions suggest that gold and silver bull markets are very much intact. This is especially the case due to continuing Asian demand with gold again being bought on all dips in China, India and the rest of Asia.

Summary of takeaways:

• Activity growth was weak though there are some uncertainties in terms of how weak it is.
• The moderation in M2 and power shortages were the likely drivers of the slowdown.
• CPI came in slightly above our and market consensus forecasts, but it nevertheless represented a sequential moderation.

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