Archive - Jun 20, 2011 - Story

When we provided our advance look at today's dual POMO day we said that: "while we expect Dealers to go balls to the wall in flipping the just auctioned off 10 Year reopening in the form of Cusip QN3, their interest in flipping the recently auctioned off QS2 will be far more muted." As a reminder, this is predicated by our interpretation of Bill Gross' tweet from last Monday, that "QE3 [is] likely to take form of "extended period" language or interest rate caps on 2-3 year Treasuries [sic]" and a result Dealers who believe Gross' prediction will hold off on flipping On The Run just issued bonds, a practice widely espoused across the curve up until the date of Gross tweet. Indeed, we already saw that during last week's 2 Year POMO not a single OTR was flipped back to the Fed, an outcome which at the time puzzled us (we had not noticed Gross' tweet). Well, the results are in... and we were half right. As we predicted, there was not a single OTR 3 Year bond (the QS2 Cusip) sold to the Fed by the dealer community during the just concluded 2:00 pm $4.6 billion POMO: a development in stark contrast to events as recent as 2 weeks ago, when the then 3 Year On The Run QM3 was massively flipped back to the Fed, just a week ahead of Gross tweet. Yet we were also half wrong: we expected that guided by Gross' expectation that the upcoming "Operation Twist 2" would focus on the front end (2-3 Years), would mean major flipping of the OTR 10 Year, as per the first POMO today. Wrong. In fact, just as during the 3 Year POMO, not a single 10 Year OTR (Cusip: QN3) was sold to Brian Sack. It appears that Dealers are now virtually certain the Fed will proceed with some form of Operation Twist, but are simply unsure whether the Fed will focus on the 2-3 Year Space, or go all the way to the 10 Year: the point that David Rosenberg predicted would be the threshold for interest rate caps. That this is happening despite a substantial drop in yields, and thus profit, for all the Dealers who hold the OTRs since auction day (both the QN3 and QE2) makes the case all that stronger. The FOMC announcement this Wednesday just got very interesting as there appears to be a substantial pricing in of an interest rate cap disclosure in some format, just as Bill Gross has predicted. Translation: that would be the start of QE3, and would explain the paradoxical strength of the Euro in the face of simply horrendous news out of Europe over the past week.

Late last week, Thomas James Ball reached his breaking point. Driven to desperation by a system that bankrupted him and destroyed his family, Ball walked up to the main door of the Keene County, New Hampshire courthouse, doused himself with gasoline, and lit himself ablaze. Hardly anyone seems to have noticed. Conversely, when a 26-year old Tunisian man lit himself on fire a few months ago after police confiscated the fruits and vegetables he had been selling without a proper permit, it launched a wave of revolution across the Middle East. People were shocked into taking action… protests and riots swept the region and one regime after another crumbled. Rather than sparking an “American spring” and shocking US citizens into taking their country back, though, Mr. Ball’s act of self-immolation seems to have been largely ignored. There has been scant coverage (and scant is being extremely generous) of Mr. Ball in the mainstream media, and what little coverage there is generally discredits the man as a troublemaker.

Ron Paul, who over the weekend won the straw vote at the Republican Leadership Conference held in New Orleans, with 40% of the vote, has just released a list of 4 points that will frame his budget priorities if elected president. As Jesse Benton, Paul campaign chairman says “The American people want and deserve someone who will tell them the truth, tell them what needs to be done, and who has an untouchable record of consistency to back it up." Whether everyone will agree with the proposed framework is unclear. However, what is true is that Paul, of all politicians on either side of center, has been the most steadfast in his message over the years, and the fringe benefit, naturally, will be the gradual elimination of Paul's arch-nemesis: the Federal Reserve.

PIMCO Scott Mather has released a fascinating Q&A in which the key topic of discussion is the artificial push to keep rates low in developed economies, also known as central bank hubris to maintain the "great moderation" in which he clearly explains i) what this means for global fund flow dynamics (using developed country reserves and purchasing EM bonds) and ii) for the future of a system held together with glue and crutches. To wit: "Financial repression is any public policy
that is designed to influence the market price of financing government
debts, either through government bonds or the nation’s currency. Direct
methods of repression include things like setting target interest rates,
monetizing government debt or implementing interest rate caps. Indirect
methods include polices designed to change the amount of debt or
currency at a given price. Examples include requirements to hold minimum
amounts of government debt on bank balance sheets or establishing
minimum requirements for government bonds in pension funds." Just in case anyone is confused why central planning is a bad idea: "Governments may take these steps to improve their ability to
finance public debt and forestall more painful adjustment processes,
though there can be other motives, and because these methods are less
transparent, and thus less controversial, than direct tax hikes or
spending cuts. Investors should be wary of financial repression because
it is primarily a tool to redistribute wealth from creditors (citizens)
to debtors (governments) to the detriment of creditors, fixed income
investors and savers." Needless to say, central planning always fails: "It is important to realize these methods as practiced are only
partially effective and cannot go on forever, as advanced economies
continue to add significantly to their public debts despite low
financing costs. Some intensification of financial repression, fiscal
austerity, or stronger growth must occur to lower the likelihood of a
future debt crisis." Bottom line: "kicking the can" can only go on for so long before EMs (read why below) provide a natural counterbalance to an artificial market created by developed world central banks. PIMCO's advice: get out of balance sheet risky DM bonds ahead of central planning failure, and buy up every EM bond possible, or bypass paper and just buy EM currencies as "EM policymakers who have resisted appreciation will
eventually allow more appreciation over the next three to five years as
they nurture domestic consumption and their economies become less
dependent on export demand." We expect to see much more on this topic as the MSM realizes the implications of this new risk regime change.

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.

Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge

For all those who believed that it was only JP Morgan who is manipulating the Brent-WTI spread, we regretfully have to inform you that the squid is once again front and center, having now been caught red-handed by none other than the ICE exchange, aka the home of Brent trading. From a just disclosed complaint: "On 28 January 2011 the Exchange’s monitoring detected six notable “price spikes” in the April11 Brent/WTI spread, between 14:26 hours and 14:31 hours UK time. These were investigated and found to be the result of a limit order and several large market orders placed in quick succession by a GSF trader...In relation to the events described above, the Exchange alleged that GSF had breached the following Rule: "It shall be an offence for a trader or Member to engage in disorderly trading whether by high or low ticking, aggressive bidding or offering, or otherwise." The Exchange recommended to the Committee that summary disciplinary proceedings be commenced in regard to the above mentioned allegations. The Committee subsequently considered the matter in accordance with Summary Enforcement Rule E.7...The Committee considered the behaviour of GSF and its client to be a clear case of disorderly trading, in that the  distorting price impact of the placement of such large orders in close proximity was not considered." But don't worry: the ICE naturally had to sugar coat its findings: "Having examined the instant messenger logs of the communication between the GSF trader and their client, the Committee found no evidence of intentional manipulation of the market; nevertheless it considered the breach to be of a serious nature." Well, thank god that all market manipulation occurs via perpetually recorded instant messaging. It would be inconceivable that Goldman and its "client" may have found a different way to hatch plans to defraud investors than one which involves on the record messages.. Simply inconceivable... And preposterous.

A republican-organized roast at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside headed by comedian Reggie Brown, meant to poke fun at democrats broadly and the president in particular, turned horribly wrong, after the comic flipped the tables and after joking at Obama's expense for a good 15 minutes, decided to take some well-deserved stabs at republican candidates. After telling the crowd that as president Obama, who had a black father and white mother, he celebrated half of Black History Month, and naturally joking at Weiner's expense, he went on a less than welcome rampage, saying if former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney were to become president, he would have his "first lady, second lady, third lady". Brown also said former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty missed the conference because he was having his foot removed from his mouth, adding that the operation would be covered under President Obama and Mr Romney's respective healthcare reforms, along with spinal transplants. Yet when Brown launched into a gag about Tea Party stalwart Michele Bachmann, his microphone was cut off, the music swelled and the comedian was ushered from the stage.

Just like last year at about this time, the tables are turning on the funders of the latest Greek bailout. As Athens News reports: "Austrian mass-circulation tabloid Oesterreich, expressing rising taxpayer resentment around the EU, called for an EU-wide plebiscite "to let those who have to pay for Greece decide" whether to rescue it again or preserve "a euro without Greece"...[it also said] zigzagging over Greek aid pointed to a lack of a strategy allowing "shameless financial markets (to) blackmail apparently helpless politicians", and it called for an EU-wide referendum." Elsewhere, Geert Wilders, head of the third largest Dutch political party, the Party For Freedom, said "Greece should leave the euro zone and reintroduce the drachma (pre-euro currency). No more Dutch tax money to the corrupt and de facto bankrupt Greek." So the end result is that once again neither the Greek nor the European population wants the latest bailout that is forced upon them by the banking system, which is terrified about what happens if failure is reintroduced as a final outcome. Yet while it will take a lot to organize Europe's conflicting popular interests, the immediate decision-making power resides with Greece, where in just over 24 hours the all-critical vote of confidence in the ruling party will take place, whose failure is simply unthinkable in terms of downstream effects for the Eurozone. And as anyone familiar with the constitution of "united" Europe can attest, the jettisoning of Greece from the currency union will be next to impossible without a thorough redo of the bylaws of not only the Eurozone but all other artificially unionizing constructs that will promptly be forced to unwind should Greece "just say no" to more banker bailouts.

On Friday, the BLS released its monthly state employment and unemployment summary. The Bberg chart below summarizes the results. Bottom line: lots of red, a little green and quite a bit unchanged.

Yesterday we reported on the halt of gold and silver futures trading by Australian broker CMC Markets. As noted, CMC did indicate it would continue trading gold and silver spot products, which is why we were surprised by the difference in trading halt outcomes between the Australian firm and Forex.com which had halted XAU and XAG outright. To provide further clarification on the CMC decision, here is an email we received from Jane Bryant, PR campaign amanger at CMC Markets...

Not a great deal on the political calendar this week, with fiscal talks led by VP Joe "NFP of 500,000 coming any... minute... now..." Biden expected nearly every day starting tomorrow.

According to flashing headlines, the CDO better known as the European Financial Stability Fund will be increased to guarantee €780 billion in the future, up from €440 billion currently (the same EFSF which currently sees Greece, which has no money left at all, guaranteeing €12.4 billion of European bailouts). This was largely expected previously as many had noted that the EFSF in its current form is insufficient to cover the liabilities of Spain once the country is swept away to the Greek insolvency tsunami. Alas, for the EURUSD which is seeing this as good news, and has surged on the announcement, this development actually means that Europe is taking proactive steps to fund Spain imminently when the house of cards start falling potentially as soon as Tuesday night. This is nothing but a Spain, and then Italy, backstop. However, for Italy to be covered, expect the total covered amount to be €1. 5 trillion. Did the Eurozone just blink?

As QE 2 enters its (black) swan song phase, today the Fed will conduct only the first dual POMO of 2011. While two POMOs per day were a regular fixture back in 2010 when the Fed had to give the impression that "profits and earnings ratios" were low enough, they had been missing in the current year... So far. At 11pm and then at 2pm, Sack-Frost team will conduct two $4-5 billion POMOs, the first one targeting 10 years, the second, buying up 3 Year bonds. Which incidentally will be a good test to see if PDs are now in the Bill Gross camp expecting Operation Twist 2 to focus on the 2-3 year space. As a reminder, last week's 2 Year POMO saw exactly zero On The Run bonds monetized, after Bill tweeted his now infamous "QE3" tweet. In other words, while we expect Dealers to go balls to the wall in flipping the just auctioned off 10 Year reopening in the form of Cusip QN3, their interest in flipping the recently auctioned off QS2 will be far more muted. On the other hand, if QS2 is shuffled back to Sack wholesale, it may simply mean that PDs believe that the Fed will target just the 2 Year and leave the 3 Year+ part of the curve floating in the wind. We will know the result of this experiment at 11am EDT. Stay tuned.

• US budget talks hit tense stage (FT)
• Siemens chief warns on US skills shortage (FT)
• Greek Default Would Spell ‘Havoc’ for European Banks a Year After Bailout (Bloomberg)
• Spain protesters turn anger against Brussels (FT)
• Credit Suisse downgrades China banks, GDP (MarketWatch)
• Rare earth prices soar as China stocks up (FT), previously covered here
• H.K. Home Prices to Fall Up to 15% (Bloomberg)
• Americans gave $291 billion to charity in 2010 (Reuters)

Risk-appetite, which emerged last Friday, couldn’t sustain its momentum today after Eurozone finance ministers decided to delay any final decision on a new Greek rescue package till July. The decision led to a re-emergence of risk-aversion, which provided support to the USD-Index and in turn weighed on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The ongoing Greek debt concerns once again weighed on equities, with particular underperformance seen in financials, which underpinned the strength in Bunds. Allied to this, Eurozone peripheral 10-year government bond yield spreads widened led by the Greek/German spread.