Archive - Jun 5, 2011 - Story

For anyone who was hoping that China would be the marginal source of liquidity in QE3 absentia (or until it actually does come, which it will), manifested by a halt to monetary tightening and a relapse into that good old methadone state of loose monetary policy, it may be time to pull those SHCOMP limit bids.  China Daily just announced tha "the People's Bank of China is likely to increase the interest rates banks must pay on deposits and the amount of money banks are required to hold in reserve to sop up the excess liquidity now found in the economy and slow inflation, said analysts. The changes in monetary policy may happen before the National Bureau of Statistics makes an expected announcement this week saying that the consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of inflation, hit a record high in May, they said."As a reminder, yesterday Goldman predicted a multi-year high inflation of 5.5% in May courtesy of the biggest drought in 50 years and surging food prices: it turns out that the PBoC, far more responsible that our own central planning charlatans, will not stand for that.

Even as the general market, dumb as a doorknob, had been following every headline out of Europe, soaking up the BS that Greece may after all end up being bailed out in some miraculous way, there were those who wondered about the legal basis of the Greek bailout #2, also known as a redux of the "Vienna initiative." The problem with the second "Deux Ex Machina" bailout is that there is absolutely nothing Deus about it, no Ex, and most certainly no Machina. In fact, as it now clearly appears, the whole rescue package is flimsier than a house of cards and a quick read through the indenture makes it all too clear. The key reason why the voluntary Vienna Initiative worked back in 2009 is that the alternative was the end of the world, and nobody would profit from not going along with the herd. This time things are diametrically different. The key phrase (or two) in the proposed package: "Voluntary" and "Collective Action Clauses"... Well as the following excerpt from Citi explains, both of these critical (as in binary: without them, Greece is dunzo) assumptions are unworkable, and explains why every single Greek bond in recent weeks has been purchased by hedge funds who have remembered that the economics of "nuisance value" when the upside of bluffing the EUR printer is virtually unlimited. Which means that not only is Bailout #2 in jeopardy of not passing the Greek parliament, but that we may suddenly find ourselves in the biggest "activist" investor drama, in which voluntary restructuring "hold out" hedge funds will settle for Cheapest to Delivery or else demand a trillion pounds of flesh from the ECB in order to keep the eurozone afloat. In other words, the drama is about to get very, very real. And, most ironically, a tiny David is about to flip the scales on the mammoth Goliath of the ECB and hold the entire European experiment hostage...

Back on December 1, 2010 Goldman announced it was "fundamentally" shifting its "bearish" outlook on the economy, when Jan Hatzius said "This outlook represents a fundamental shift in the thinking that has governed our forecast for at least the last five years" we accused the Goldman economics team, which we had previously respected, of "jumping the shark" and in describing the piece of fluff said it was nothing but "Hopium", concluding that "Jan Hatzius used to have credibility." Ten minutes ago, Hatzius just threw in the towel and apologized for this horrendous call. "Six months ago, we adopted the view that the economy was
transitioning to a more self-sustaining recovery and predicted
sequential real GDP growth of 3½%-4% (annualized) in 2011-2012. There
were three reasons for our shift: a) a pickup in “organic” growth—GDP
excluding the estimated impact of fiscal policy and inventories—to more
than 4% in late 2010; b) visible signs of progress in private sector
deleveraging, and c) another round of fiscal and monetary stimulus....It hasn’t happened." Needless to say, this apology has made us regain some confidence in Hatzius. Of course, we fully expect that he and his entire team will relinquish their 2011 bonus (and possibly a 2010 bonus clawback) following this massively wrong call, which only Zero Hedge had the guts to call out. Anyway, we can now move on... to QE3. Just as we predicted in January (but were late by a month, expecting this preliminary discussion would occur in May at the latest), Hatzius has just launched the first shot across Bill Dudley's bow. "So what is the hurdle for QE3?" Hatzius asks... And a very dovish Bill "You can't eat iPads" Dudley will answer very shortly. Next up: QE 3.

While the dominant topic of conversation when discussing margin hikes (or reductions) usually reverts to silver, ES (stocks) and TEN (bonds), what everyone so far is ignoring is the far more critical topic of real margin risk, in the form of roughly $600 trillion in OTC derivatives. The issue is that while the silver market (for example) is tiny by comparison, it is easy to be pushed around, and thus exchanges can easily represent the illusion that they are in control of counterparty risk (after all, that was the whole point of the recent CME essay on why they hiked silver margins 5 times in a row). Nothing could be further from the truth: where exchanges are truly at risk is when it comes to mitigating the threat of counterparty default for participants in a market that is millions of times bigger than the silver market: the interest rate and credit default swap markets. As part of Dodd-Frank, by the end of 2012, all standardised over-the-counter derivatives will have to be cleared through central counterparties. Yet currently, central clearing covers about half of $400 trillion in
interest rate swaps, 20-30 percent of the $2.5 trillion
in commodities derivatives, and about 10 percent of $30 trillion in
credit default swaps. In other words, over the next year and a half exchanges need to onboard over $200 trillion notional in various products, and in doing so, counterparites, better known as the G14 (or Group of 14 dealers that dominate derivatives trading including Bank of America-Merrill Lynch,
Barclays Capital, BNP Paribas, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche
Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, RBS,
Societe Generale, UBS and Wells Fargo Bank) will soon need to post billions in initial margin, and as a brand new BIS report indicates, will likely need significant extra cash to be in compliance with regulatory requirements. Not only that, but once trading on an exchange, the G14 "could face a cash shortfall in very volatile markets when daily margins are increased, triggering demands for several billions of dollars to be paid within a day." Per the BIS "These margin calls could represent as much as 13 percent of a G14 dealer's current holdings of cash and cash equivalents in the case of interest rate swaps." Below we summarize the key findings of a just released discussion by the BIS on the "Expansion of central clearing" and also present a parallel report just released by BNY ConvergEx' Nicholas Colas who independetly has been having "bad dreams" about the possibility of what the transfer to an exchange would mean in terms of collateral posting (read bank cash payouts) and overall market stability, and why a multi-trillion margin call could result in the biggest buying spree in US Treasurys... Ever. 

The week ahead brings a barrage of IP data for April from all round the world, the momentum of which will be closely examined after the sharp drops in the manufacturing business surveys last week. Expectations – both ours and the consensus – are a mixed bag, but broadly, we expect momentum to slow in April. The data will be dissected for evidence of supply chain issues – which probably should be faded given the Japanese production plans published last week – and for evidence of a broader slowdown. In addition, manufacturing orders data from Germany, Taiwan, Japan and Sweden will be watched similarly. Away from IP, the week brings a bunch of inflation prints, which are all broadly expected to show a further rise in the headline readings. Outside of the data, developments in Greece will remain on the radar screen, particularly any colour on a new package.

In today's Europe, the people are no longer in control. Instead, politicians have become slaves to financial institutions and the markets. We are partly to blame -- and changes are urgently needed to nurse European democracy back to health.We are doing well. In fact, we're doing splendidly. The economy is booming, with 1.5 percent growth in the first quarter. We are as prosperous as we were before the crisis, which has finally been overcome. Congratulations are in order for everyone. The banks, Deutsche Bank above all, deserve particular congratulations. In the first quarter, it earned €3.5 billion ($5.1 billion) in pretax profits in its core business, and by the end of the year the bank will likely report a record €10 billion in pretax profits, its best results ever. That number is expected to rise to €11 billion or even €12 billion in two or three years. Less than three years after the peak of the crisis, it seems as if it never happened. That is true of the economy, but it also true of us as economic subjects. But is that all we are? No, we are also citizens and participants in a democratic society. As such, we have no reason to be celebrating. Instead, we ought to be sad and outraged. Democracy, after all, is not doing splendidly, or even well. It is gradually becoming a casualty of the financial crisis.

The halo of invincibility surrounding the world's largest hedge fund/smallest mutual fund (because last we checked a hedge fund that is $37 billion in size has about the same turn radius as Vanguard), Paulson & Co., is starting to wear thin. According to the FT's Sam Jones, Paulson's flagship fund, the $9 billion Advantage Fund, dropped "close to 6 per cent in May, echoing losses across the industry." May’s loss means that in the year to date, the $9bn Paulson & Co Advantage Plus fund is down 7.6 per cent. The average hedge fund lost 1.39 per cent over the month according to preliminary data from Hedge Fund Research, with “event-driven” strategies such as that operated by Paulson & Co’s main fund down on average 0.62 per cent.  Investors in the firm's other fund have little cause for cheer: "The Paulson & Co Gold fund dropped 6.39 per cent in May, erasing much of its 8.5 per cent April gain. The fund is up 0.9 per cent in the year. Paulson & Co is the world’s largest non-sovereign gold investor. Performance was better for the firm’s other funds. Its Credit fund was down 0.05 per cent for May, while the Recovery fund, which is geared to the prospects of the US economy, dropped 0.69 per cent. Paulson & Co declined to comment." Naturally, Paulson, who once upon a time saw Bank of America, soon to be embroiled in multi-billion dollar litigation to settle the fact that an unimaginable number of its mortgages are fraudulent through and through (thank you Agent Orange), would hit $30/share by the end of 2011 and soon will need a reverse stock split to get there, continues to be bullish: "In the firm’s most recent correspondence with investors Mr Paulson said difficulties for US banks had been a particular drag on his portfolios but that he remained optimistic...The US stock market could rally as much as 40 per cent from its first quarter level this year, he said." Sorry, John, not without QE 7 it won't.

As expected, the Portuguese elections appear to be a massive victory for the Social Democrats' Pedro Passos Coelho, who is now guaranteed to replace Socrates as Portugal's next PM. The latest results indicate a 41.08% lead for the PSD compared to 28.77% for the PS. What will this change in terms of national policies for this latest IMF vassal state? Absolutely nothing (as discussed earlier). Follow the latest district by district data live here.

After 12 consecutive days of protests, the biggest gathering in Athens' parliamentary Syntagma square is currently underway. The FT reports: "Thousands of Greeks protested outside parliament on Sunday against a fresh austerity package agreed in return for the country’s second bail-out in 13 months by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. “Thieves, thieves….Where did our money go?” the protestors shouted, blowing whistles and waving Greek flags as riot police thickened ranks around the parliament building on Syntagma square in the centre of the capital...Frustration over the socialist government’s half-hearted reform effort has united diverse activists –from unemployed graduates to environmentalists and pensioners – under the umbrella of the new movement. George Papaconstantinou, finance minister, is due to unveil on Monday a €6.4bn emergency package of tax increases and cuts in allowances aimed at putting this year’s budget back on track....“What went wrong? We need answers right now,” said Rovertos, a volunteer computer technician helping provide wi-fi services at the protest camp. “The government promised there wouldn’t be any more tough measures but they’re about to announce new taxes and thousands of job cuts,” said Stefanos, a retired civil servant sitting outside a tent." What went wrong is that Greece is in the process of being colonized by the global banker certal. But with summer season in swing, and most Greeks hitting the beach, we doubt many will notice until it is too late. As for those who may have noticed, below is a webstream of the biggest protest before the Greek parliament in 2011. It is sure to provide some entertainment for when the EUR opens up in 3 hours, if not much else.

There is a plethora of original insight in Don Coxe (BMO Capital Makets) among them observations on sovereign risk moving from east to west, state finances (or lack thereof), the ongoing correction in financial stocks which portends nothing good for the equity investors, the ongoing violence in MENA, why this inflationary spike in food may last far longer than previous ones, and naturally, some very spot on thoughts on gold, which conclude with: "The only gold bubble likely to burst is the bubbling ridicule of gold."

Even as the insolvent EU scolded Russia for daring to ban imports of raw vegetables from EU countries 3 days ago releasing the following statement, "The European Commission protested to the Russian Federation this
afternoon against the Russian ban imposed earlier today on all EU
vegetable exports to Russia, and requested the immediate withdrawal of
the measure" there is no chance that Russia will comply (adding insult to insolvency), following the latest report from Reuters that "German hospitals are struggling to cope with the flood of E.coli victims, Health Minister Daniel Bahr said on Sunday, as the death toll rose to 21 with more than 2,000 people infected across Europe....Hospitals in the northern port of Hamburg,
epicenter of the outbreak that began three weeks ago, have been moving
out patients with less serious illnesses to handle the surge of people
stricken by a rare, highly toxic strain of the bacteria." Needless to say, this is good news for the Keynesians out there: in addition to earthquakes, volcanoes, rain, snow, floods, droughts, tsunamis and nuclear power plant explosions, worthless economists will now have viruses to blame for "one-time, non-recurring" misses to their latest set of expectations.

Today, in a much anticipated outcome, Portugal will vote to replace the caretaker Prime Minister Jose Socrates with opposition center-right Social Democrat Pedro Passos Coelho. Alas this is largely a symbolic vote as the new guy is just a continuation of the policies of the old guy: "Passos Coelho, who cast his vote at a polling station in Amadora on the outskirts of Lisbon, where reporters by far outnumbered voters, said Portugal had to stick to the bailout terms to regain market confidence and return to growth." Even the young people understand this: "Ricardo, a voter in his late 20s, expressed a common view that any new government just has to march to the beat of the lenders' drum. "I think the election won't bring anything new because it's the IMF in charge of the country now ... Any party that gets to the government will just have to follow IMF rules, " he said." Spot on. And we wonder how long before Mohamed El-Erian, or some other actual thinker, has an op-ed discussing the pitfalls of what we have now trademarked as "The Congress of Berlin 2.0: the scramble for Europe."

More bad news for China's stagflating economy: according to an industry group, China automobile sales dropped for the second month in a row in May, pointing to slowing demand after Beijing stopped offering incentives and introduced new limits on car purchases earlier this year. "Vehicle sales in China shed 13.95 percent on-month to 1.19 million last month, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) said. It was a 29.74 percent increase compared to the same month last year. Auto output fell 14.36 percent from a month earlier to about 1.31 million units in May. The industry group attributed the continued decline in May sales to the end of the tax breaks and incentive policies in the country. The Chinese government ended tax breaks for purchases of small cars at the end of 2010 and reimposed a 10 percent tax at the beginning of this year. The tax breaks, introduced in 2009 to buoy domestic demand amid the economic slowdown, had boosted China's auto market and helped it overtake the United States as the world's largest in 2009 and 2010." This is yet another piece of bad news for GM, for whom China has recently become the dominant market (even as it stuff US dealers with record amount of inventory), and since the company has been unable to take advantage of the supply disruptions that have crippled Japanese car makers, expect to see GM stock take its current post-IPO low stock price even lower. "Wang Qingtao, analyst at China's Sealand Securities Co., expected the downward trend in the Chinese auto industry would likely continue for a while, saying "the market fundamentals are not likely to change drastically." And in the meantime, Goldman now anticipates China's May inflation to hit 5.5% Y/Y, the highest such increase in years, and the Stagflationary economy continues overheating, this time due to surging food prices as a result of the record drought previously discussed.