Archive - Jun 2011 - Story

As noted in the title, for all those who wish to reread how Bernanke justifies the fact that he has no idea why the economy will improve, but it just will, damn it, here it is, complete with the full Q&A.

While hypnotized lemmings are watching the green, red and blue squiggly lines, and Bernanke's lies enter one ear and exit from the other, those who put on the risk-ES spread convergence trade on earlier just paid for drinks. Spread has closed and we eagerly await the next free money opportunity from B to the Sack.

The Fed has just taken one small step to acknowledging reality... and Zero Hedge's keyword of 2011: stagflation. The FOMC  released its revised 2011-2013 economic forecast, which saw GDP getting slashed, while hiking its inflation and unemployment projections. Specifically, 2011 GDP was lowered from 3.2% to 2.8% even as it raised its average unemployment forecast from 8.6% to 8.8%.

Just as expected, the New York Fed disclosed that even as QE2 is being halted (briefly), QE Lite purchases of maturing securities will continue, across the Fed's 7 maturity segments: "At this time, the Desk anticipates conducting one operation per month in each maturity sector." As we have calculated before the total amount of monthly "flow" purchases will be about $32 billion, and likely declining, as less and less MBS are prepaid to the Fed. In other words, the bulk of purchases will once again be at the belly, with the least amount dedicated to the long-end, followed only by the 1.5-2.5 year segment, which however, if Bill Gross is right, will see a surge in activity as soon as Operation Twist 2 is announced at this year's Jackson Hole meeting.

At 2:15 pm the general public will watch with fascination as Ben Bernanke descends into his throne, in his dollar green Vera Wang wearing a stunning Control Print and Arpels tungsten necklace, following with trepidation each and every shake and quiver of his chin in those ultra rare instances when he speaks the truth. He will be surrounded by a cohort of FOMC preapproved sycophants who, as can be seen on the clip below, are now on page 2 of Monetary Policy for Dummies, which they started reading back on April 27 during the first ever FOMC press conference. As usual, nothing of significance will be asked, and most certainly, answered, but do expect the dollar (and, inversely, ES) to go up, then down, then up, and so forth as random vacuum tubes blow in NYSE's ultramodern Mahwah collocation facility.

Once again, the non-Greek speaking population has the opportunity to poke fun at G-Pap's vote of confidence reception speech courtesy of Google Translate.

Nothing surprising in the statement.

One notable observation is that for the first time since the Japanese events, the Fed is finally recognized the impact of the Japan-induced contraction. Odd that all the morons who said Japan would be a boost to GDP growth now applaud the Fed's appreciation of reality.

The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary, including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. 

With under 10 minutes to go to the FOMC decision, traders are scrambling for hints as to what may be coming. One place they are looking is BAC option activity, as this is a company which is in dire need of some monetary love (and at least steepening, hello OT2) from the Chairman. A quick look at the most actives shows that bullish bets far outstrip bearish ones, with almost 75k January 2012 and 2013 $12.5 calls having traded hands (granted it is unclear from this chart if the bulk of the activity was on the bid or offer side). Anyway, so much for guessing: everything will be revealed in just a few minutes...

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.

A snapshot of the US Afternoon Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.

I am back to being bearish the high yield market. I am not yet short it, but would certainly recommend being underweight right now. A couple of things have pushed me back to being bearish. The main one is weakness in other credit markets. Once again CMBX is heading lower and back at or near its recent lows. It has not been able to sustain a big rally which is particularly surprising because it is relatively illiquid and is a 'hedge' trade so is usually very exposed to a violent short squeeze. Irish and Portuguese 10 year bond hit new record yields according to Bloomberg - 11.47% and 10.99% respectively at the time of the writing, though Portugal broke 11% earlier in the day...The combination of weakness in other credit markets, coupled by the HYG NAV confirming that liquidity is at an extreme low in the high yield bond market I think it is prudent to cut high yield risk. With European credit closing quite weakly, I may shift to an outright short.

After the ES-RISK (Rates, both absolute and butterflys, FX and Commodities) divergence yesterday brought the spread to a 10 point-wide equivalent, the subsequent lack of positive response to the Greek developments in futures once again closed the spread like clockwork. Well, the 3 day regressed chart (for apples to apples) shows that stocks are once again overeager in advance of the Fed meeting, which leads to yet another convergence opportunity between the two trade legs.

Up until this point, Spiegel has been relatively objective in its coverage of the Eurozone implosion (unlike Handelsblatt, which we still await to apologize for losing all of its readers millions if not billions for urging them to invest in Greek bonds because it is their patriotic duty). That is until today. In an opinion piece, Henrik Muller writes that "if the Euro fails, Germany will be responsible" lamenting that it "may seem absurd that Berlin is perceived abroad as 'euro Nazis' rather than as a benevolent leader. But should the common currency fail, Berlin will be to blame."

Just out from Bill Gross:

A week ago we reported on the case of the "The Largest Theft Of Funds In National History" or the missing $6.6 billion in Iraq war reconstruction funding, which was literally composed of "shrink-wrapped bricks of $100 bills", which was part of a $20 billion total in "Marshall Plan" investment meant to stimulate the post-war economy. When discussing this so far undisclosed cash loss, "Stuart Bowen, special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, an office created by Congress, said the missing $6.6 billion may be "the largest theft of funds in national history." Two new developments have emerged in this fascinating story. The first, as CNBCs Eamon Javers reports is that "The New York Fed is refusing to tell investigators how many billions of dollars it shipped to Iraq during the early days of the US invasion there." Javers adds: "The Fed's lack of disclosure is making it difficult for the inspector general to follow the paper trail of billions of dollars that went missing in the chaotic rush to finance the Iraq occupation, and to determine how much of that money was stolen." Well, for what it's worth, we may have an estimate of this largest war theft ever: talking to Al Jazeera, "Osama al-Nujaifi, the Iraqi parliament speaker, has told Al Jazeera that the amount of Iraqi money unaccounted for by the US is $18.7bn - three times more than the reported $6.6bn." If indeed the total theft amounts to virtually the entire amount of reconstruction spending that could possibly explain why the Fed is so coy in discussing this issue. Alas, just like the Fed's multitrillion bailout of the financial system, it is unlikely it will be able to keep the topic from reemerging, and that very soon - al-Nujaifi adds: "There is a lot of money missing during the first American administration of Iraqi money in the first year of occupation. "Iraq's development fund has lost around $18bn of Iraqi money in these operations - their location is unknown. Also missing are the documents of expenditure. "I think it will be discussed soon. There should be an answer to where has Iraqi money gone." Who will be the next Mark Pittman to sue the New York Fed to get the required information on how much cash the FRBNY was complicit in "disappearing" - we can't wait to find out.