Archive - Jun 2011 - Story

Nobody could have seen this coming. According to RanSquawk, there is "Market talk that accord on new Greek bailout faces major obstacles." Whether true or not is irrelevant: the market sells first. Greek CDS just hit 1,474, +63 bps and an all time record high. Elsewhere, the EURUSD is dropping as the house of cards appears to be finally on the edge. Per Market News: "Despite public declarations last Friday that an agreement in principle had been reached, two major problems threaten to block a deal, the sources said. One is the highly sensitive issue of private sector contribution. The other is the insistence of European officials and the International Monetary Fund that the Greek parliament pass significant new deficit-cutting measures before EU leaders meet at the end of June as a condition for new money. That task appears Herculean, given the rapidly growing domestic political and social resistance. "

From Nomura: "The way the data and psychology has turned down just as QE2 is ending is no coincidence – just like it was no coincidence when the same thing happened at the end of QE1. To use the Fed Chairman's preferred term these days – the impact of QE is transitory. Much like fiscal stimulus, QE has a temporary impact but as soon as the extraordinary intervention ends, the patient begins to wither again. This is the trap that Bernanke fully understands and it seems like the endless monetization prophecies of Zerohedge and The Daily Dirtnap are at risk of coming true."

The worst nightmare of crude bears has just come true:

• OPEC secretary general says OPEC unable to reach consensus to boost production
• OPEC delegate says OPEC has no consensus for agreement
• OPEC president says some in OPEC believed should have had production increase, other said more time needed to asses
• OPEC secretary general says OPEC spare capacity down to 4-4.5MBPD after Libya
  
• OPEC president says final proposal was to wait for about three months to asses situation
  
• OPEC president says Status-Quo outcome unwelcomed by some members
  
• OPEC president says effective OPEC decision is a roll-over
  

This is what happens when, as we wrote yesterday, the OPEC is no longer a cartel but a loose gathering of dictators who do their best/worst to boost/scuttle Obama's re-election chances. Look for crude to do the HFT levitation on the news.

One thing that the brilliant Eurozone Keynesian shamans appear to have missed is that with the Greek economic production base (read its population) offline and protesting now virtually every day, thus completely unmotivated to actually generate incremental output, the entire Greek economy will soon grind to a halt: the latest confirmation - plunging Industrial Production, which dropped by 11% Y/Y in April, the worst economic performance since the first half of 2009. Guardian reports: "Esa, the state statistics agency, said the decline was caused by falls in the main sectors of Greek production - mining, manufacturing, electricity and water supply production. Mining fell by 6.4pc, manufacturing decreased by 11.3pc, electricity production dropped 12.2pc, while the water supply declined by 6.8pc. Greece's economy is struggling to emerge from a deep recession fueled by austerity measures taken to rescue the economy from near-bankruptcy last year." And these are the economic conditions that according to the Troica deserve a passing grade? One wonders what would force the Greek economy to get an F in Keynesianism. One also wonders how the Greek economy is supposed to rebound and cut its deficit to IMF-mandated thresholds as more and more economic capacity is eliminated and the Greek workers simply fall back on their socialized benefits and lieu of a 9 to 5 job (and retire as soon as possible to be grandfathered by existing clauses in advance of what Bailout #1298 will dictate will soon be a 100 year old retirement age).

Too bad there is no central bank to sell weather future puts and induce a "great moderation" in climatic conditions, which lately have seen volatility surge through the roof. The most recent example of why the CBOE needs a weather VIX is China, where following weeks of inflation spiking near-record drought conditions, the weather has flipped, and heavy rainfalls since June 3 have created floods that have killed at least 52 people led to 32 more missing, and much more is coming. According to Xinhua, "Heavy rains have inundated parts of 12 provinces in
central and southern China and affected 4.81 million people so far since
the flood season arrived, Shu Qingpeng, deputy head of the Office of
State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, told a conference. Floods have destroyed 7,462 houses and submerged 255,000 hectares of farmland, incurring direct economic losses of 4.92 billion yuan (760 million U.S. dollars), he said. Heavy rainfalls since June 3 have drenched the previously parched lower and middle parts of the Yangtze River basin, increasing water of rivers to alert levels in the provinces of Jiangxi, Hunan and Guizhou." The PBoC's, which is preparing with spinning a record 5.5% CPI print imminently, just can't catch a fair weather break.

• Fed Sees Recovery Lagging (Jon Hilsenrath)
• Grand Bargain U.S. Debt-Deal Failure Would Set Up 2012 Election Showdown (Bloomberg)
• Ruling party lawmakers attack new Greek bailout (Reuters)
• IMF's Lipsky says QE3 not necessary (Reuters)
• Yuan's band may be widened (China Daily)
• Tank Looks Dry for the Australian Dollar (WSJ)
• Berlin seeks 7-year Greek debt extension (FT)
• It’s Bubble Time as Asia Braces for Fed’s QE3 (Bloomberg)
• G20 targets volatile food prices (FT)

Perhaps the reason why so far nobody has been too concerned about the radiation levels in and around Tokyo, some 140  miles southwest of Fukushima, be that everyone is looking for radiation in all the wrong places? As the following very disturbing video demonstrates, a quick trip down the street with your personal Geiger counter indicates, the radiation gradient between the air and the ground is orders of magnitude. It is unclear if the ground is such a more generous source of radiation due to radioactive rains seeping into the ground, due to irradiated water in the subsoil, or for some other reason. What is pretty certain, is that unless Japanese citizens have learned to fly and avoid the ground altogether, by walking each and every day, they absorb substantial abnormal amounts of radiation. How soon before we transition from videos of earless mutant bunnies to those of something far more tragic?

A beige book and a bond auction.

Yesterday Reuters reported that a troubling, yet potentially inevitable development may be imminent: the default of the US, granted, a short-lived one (though we are not sure just how the world's "reserve" currency will be backed by a national that is technically insolvent). Luckily for the US, everyone else (except China) is just as bankrupt. Yet if there is one thing pushing Lehman into competitive bankruptcy just so that Goldman would have a monopoly in the US fixed income sales and trading market, it is that any such action will have massive downstream consequences, and in the pyramid of "unpredictable downstream effects", the insolvency of the US is at the very top. And just to make it clear, now that a default is becoming a palpable option, China announced that the United States is "playing with fire" if it opts to briefly default on its debt, which could undermine the dollar, Li Daokui, an adviser to China's central bank said on Wednesday. Yet the statement could very well backfire after Li, speaking on the sidelines of a forum, said China needs to dissuade the United States from defaulting on its debt, but he believed China may hang on to its investment in U.S. Treasuries in any case. This is precisely the case made by Stanley Druckenmiller: in fact, should there be a technical default, US bonds will become a true safe haven investment as America will for the first time take a step to indicate that it believes the relentless abuse of its fiscal situation is coming to an end.

What happens if energy and food prices keep going up? Can we be sure that this won’t happen? No of course not so these markets are far too complacent in my view and are not pricing enough risk premium. I am not even convinced that a lot of higher input prices have been passed on yet so the consumer will either face higher prices or the producer will see margins collapse and neither is good for equities. Europe is in a mess and it looks increasingly likely that a restructuring WILL happen somewhere at some point, whilst Trichet seems determined to jack up rates on principle. Don’t forget that even though European politicians want to help for fear of the consequences, ultimately the outcome will be decided by backbench politicians in PM Papandreou's parliamentary party. If austerity measures are not approved by parliament on Jun 28, then all hell could break loose. And just look at the EUR; what’s it doing up here? There is little risk priced here it seems and yet the risks are huge. Central banks are sucking volatility from these markets in a bid to create a false sense of security. This covert intervention is very clever as it’s tough to fight. Without doubt G20 is behind this and the accord is strong. They need a stable equity markets and stable FX markets to help buy time. Very clever.

Gold and silver are lower today despite European equities falling for a sixth day on sovereign debt and economic growth concerns. Bernanke’s failure to even suggest that the Federal Reserve will embark on further stimulus and QE3, after QE1 and QE2 failed to kick start the US economy, has markets jittery. Moody’s warned that the UK was at risk of losing its AAA rating if growth remained weak and the government failed to meet its budget deficit reduction targets. This is almost certain as the UK is now seeing a new bout of weakness in the housing market, and stagflation. Gold remains near record highs in sterling (£949.82/oz) and looks well both fundamentally (given the risks posed to the UK economy and sterling) and technically. Gold looks well supported above £900/oz and may be consolidating over £900/oz prior to a move to £1,000/oz.

A snapshot of the European Morning Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.
Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge

I’m not sure what prompted me to consider this subject on my commute this morning, but it probably has to do with my reflecting on Memorial Day just passed. That and the fact that crude oil continues to trade around $100/bbl and the implications for energy prices going forward—for the consumer and the countries who supply them. One of those countries is Russia which produces 12% of the world’s oil. As one whose company sometimes does business with Russian firms, I’ve found it helpful to understand their mind-set as I do any foreign customer whose worldview originates from a different vantage point than my own. And one thing I have learned is that the Russian historical narrative of World War II is far different than ours. I must say that when it comes to what they once referred to as “The Great Patriotic War” their memories are more accurate in my view.

While not making any specific recommendations (or precisely because of), and since it is not the product of some major conflicted sell-side "advisory" desk, the BNY/Economist's just released report on the "Search for Growth" is possibly one of the best and most insightful pieces of research into the prevailing popular opinion about the opportunities and risks in capital markets we have read recently. From the survey: "The search for growth remains challenging and unpredictable. For every indicator that points to a more sustainable recovery, there are others that suggest the emergence of new problems. Although it is not easy to make decisions about how and where to invest in this difficult economic and market environment, it does help to understand how peers from around the world are responding. Our survey of 800 respondents tackles a broad range of themes, including the prospects for growth across sectors, regions and asset classes. At its heart is a set of scenarios; we asked respondents to indicate how likely they thought each scenario was, and then asked them to tell us what impact it might have on their portfolio. The results provide a fascinating insight into the current mindset of investors and executives around the world."

Courtesy of ex-SAC portfolio manager Noah Freeman's cooperating witness testimony, we now know just what it takes to be a star trader under Stevie Cohen: i) trade on inside information at least 6 times, ii) run around San Francisco, in your underwear, high on shrooms, and iii) bang a hooker at a Taiwan bar called the Red Horse. And that's about all you need to make 1.3 million a year while in the employment of one SAC Capital.