Archive - Jun 2011 - Story

The ISM, ADP, and vehicle sales for May: all expected to be horrible. In other rhetorical observations, what kind of stingy depressionary economy won't let a Fed chairman buy a virtuous economic cycle for $800 billion?

Bloomberg reports this morning that Turkey imported 25.7 tons of silver in May, up from 61 kilograms in April, the Istanbul Gold Exchange said in a report on its website. This is a huge increase in demand and suggests that Middle Eastern demand for silver, which has not been noteworthy to date, may soon become an important catalysts for higher silver prices. Silver demand is particularly strong in China and Asia and among a minority but increasingly vocal and influential band of silver advocates who believe that silver is a superior form of money and will help protect people from developing problems in the western and global financial and monetary system. Bloomberg reports this morning that U.S. silver eagle coin sales through May 2011 are the best since 1986 (see news below). 18.9 million ounces have been sold so far in 2011. While that may seem like a lot, to put that number in context, it is only worth some $661 million. Ireland, a small country, may need an extra €50 billion to be made available under the EU/IMF programme to allow it to remain out of the markets for a longer period. The average daily turnover on foreign exchange markets is in excess of US$4 trillion. The US has monthly budget deficits of over $200 billion.

Two more indicators of a stalling global economy came out of China and the UK overnight, where manufacturing Purchasing Managers Indices posted substantial drops. Growth in the Chinese manufacturing sector slowed to a 10-month low in May, with both production and new orders gains moderating during the month, according to the final HSBC Purchasing Managers Index released Wednesday. The final May reading stood at 51.6, up from the May flash reading
of 51.1 reading but down from 51.8 in both April and March. Total new orders rose for the tenth consecutive month but at a slower pace than in April, while new export orders contracted for the first time in three months, though the rate of contraction was only marginal. This caused the pace of output growth to slow to a ten-month low, HSBC said. However, the pace of new employment rose at the fastest rate in five months. The rise in input price growth eased to a nine-month low in May. Yet the modest Chinese slowdown was nothing compared to the now confirmed stagflation gripping the UK, where Manufacturing PMI fell from 54.4 to 52.1 in May, weaker than consensus expectations (54.1) and its lowest level since September 2009. As Goldman reports,  consumer-facing manufacturers registered the sharpest contraction in output on the month. Some of this is attributable to temporary effects; some may be indicative of more sustained pressure on household incomes. Nowhere was the impact of this more evident than on the GBPUSD pair which took a nearly 100 pip overnight tumble, and has weighed on European markets overnight. Other global PMI readings also confirmed that the world economic is approaching stall speed, which should certainly be favorable for global bizarro stocks.

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