Archive - Jun 2011 - Story

A snapshot of the European Morning Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.
Market Recaps to help improve your Trading and Global knowledge

You discussed it here yesterday. Today, Glenn Beck takes it to a whole new level...

Indeed, this 2009-2011 recovery and cyclical bull market has been as artificial as the 2003-07 expansion. That last one was fuelled by financial engineering in the financial sector. This one is being underpinned by unprecedented government intrusion in the credit markets. As of this quarter, your government has replaced the private sector as the largest source of outstanding mortgage market and consumer-related credit (see front page of the Investor's Business Daily). So not only is the U.S.A. turning Japanese in many respects, it is also now resembling China where the government also redirects the flow of private sector credit. When we said capitalism went on a sabbatical three years ago, we didn't expect this to be a permanent vacation.

Last week, many, Zero Hedge among them, blasted the decision by the IEA to released 60 million barrels of crude in what was perceived as a last ditch effort to lower the price of gas in exchange for brownie points, while ignoring the fact that the crude would have to repurchased at some point in the future almost certainly at a higher price, and that it puts OPEC in a position of potential retaliation that could have far more adverse price repercussions than the IEA's opening salvo. Then again perhaps the move was not as misguided as the skeptics believe. Below we present the view from Emad Mostaque of Religare Capital Markets who provides a different spin on things: "Market consensus following the IEA release of strategic reserves last week has been quite negative on fears of OPEC/Saudi retaliation, erosion of the all-important buffer and accusations of political pandering. We are more positive and see this as positive for market transparency and function. GCC and IEA objectives are aligned: Neither the GCC or IEA want oil prices over $100 or market distortions. The remainder of OPEC has no room to retaliate and we are likely to see more cooperation to reduce volatility. IEA targeting shortages, GCC price: This is essentially an oil swap agreement addressing the lack of light, sweet Libyan crude in the European market and the ridiculous Brent-WTI spread. The GCC will continue to pump heavier crude at market value and will defend prices in the $85-100 range. As a result, we do not believe reserves will fall to dangerous levels. Fundamentals and Libya: While we have been negative on the short-term oil price since the start of May and have been looking at the lower end of our $90-100 range for the summer, we are still constructive long-term and believe consensus estimates are reasonable. We also see a potential resolution in Libya as increasingly likely, with no increase in MENA violence."

There may be those among the less than brainwashed lemmingerati out there who have noticed what, as we have pointed out for the past month when reporting on the various manufacturing and regional Fed indices, has been an epic collapse in the appropriate data series. As John Lohman so kindly demonstrates, the two month implosion has been beyond epic, and while certainly the biggest drop in the past decade, may also be the all time worst ever. To the point of this post: the last time we had an economic contraction of this magnitude was back in February of 2008, which was two months into the most acute recession in post-depression history. We are confident that once the groupthink wraps its head around the fact that the auto production based renaissance is not coming, and the economy officially tumbles into the commode of Ben Bernanke's fiat dungeon, the NBER will determine (with an appropriate 12-18 month delay), that the current recession started in April of 2011.

Is New Jersey the canary in Meredith Whitney's coalmine? According to the WSJ, New Jersey may be the first state to use the highly unconventional approach of using a commercial bank funded bridge loan as large as $2.25 billion to "plug a cash shortfall." The loan raised by Chris Christie's state, "would cover bills the state will need to pay as its new fiscal year begins July 1. Normally, states have some cash available as they finish one fiscal year and begin the next, while gearing up for a bond offering based on the new budget...Terms of the loan, also known as a credit line, haven't been finalized and negotiations could fall apart, according to the people familiar with the matter." And since this will likely be a benchmark loan whose term sheet will be promptly circulated to other cash-strapped states, it will be all the more important in defining such key term components as subordination, collateralization, and general interest rates.

Are you a US taxpayer? Do you have at least $10,000 in overseas accounts? It’s time to put those annual disclosure statements in the mail… and quickly. Let me explain. Each year by June 30th, US taxpayers are obliged to report all foreign financial accounts in which they have either a beneficial interest or signature authority, so long as the aggregate value of all the accounts exceeds $10,000 at any time during the calendar year. The form is known as the FBAR. You must accurately disclose the highest value of each account during the previous calendar year on your FBAR… so make sure you go back through your bank and brokerage statements to check. Let me give you a few examples...

Regular Zero Hedge readers know about our fascination with fat tail insurance, which is particularly relevant in modern day central planning when nothing is as it should be and everything is as the central bankers determine it is, at least until such time as the general market calls their bluff and we see the kinds of six sigma dislocations that marked trading for months on end after the Lehman bankruptcy. Probably the best most recent example is our overview of the 5 black swans that keep Dylan Grice up at night, and the way to hedge against them (incidentally, these were Long-term deflation, a Chinese Hard Landing, Asset Bubbles, Hyperinflation, and of course, a Bond Market Blow-up). And while one should always be hedge against prevailing conventional wisdom, because more often than not the crowd is wrong, and with very disastrous consequences, GMO's James Montier, in a just released white paper asks the fundamental question (whose affirmative answer could put purveyors of fat tail insurance such Nassim Taleb's Universa fund out of business), whether fait tails insurance is even necessary if everyone is protecting for the very same selection of "black swans" (therefore confirming that the hedged against events are anything but a black swan). Specifically, in Montier's words: "Tail risk protection appears to be one of many investment fads du jour. All too often those seeking tail risk protection appear to be motivated by the fear of missing out (not fear at all, but greed). However, the surge of tail risk products may well not be the hoped-for panacea. Indeed, they may even contain the seeds of their own destruction (something we often encounter in finance – witness portfolio insurance, etc). If the price of tail risk insurance is driven up too high, it simply won’t benefit its purchasers." His solution for the best tail hedge: cash. "In many situations, cash is a severely underappreciated tail risk hedge." And somewhat more philosophic: "When it comes to timing tail risk protection, a long-term value-based approach and an emphasis on absolute standards of value, coupled with a broad mandate (a wide opportunity set, or, investment flexibility, if you prefer) seems to offer the best hope." Too bad that one must also factor for career risk, which usually means that everyone does end up doing precisely the same trade no matter what, which ultimately brings everyone back to square one.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 27/06/11

A few months ago we reported on Deutsche Boerse's Alpha Stream: a product suite especially designed to allow subscribers to get a millisecond advantage when market moving economic data is reported, which would then set HFT algos off the races, with the expectation that those paying a pretty penny for such access could scalp a few nickels from those without this critical (in our day and age of collocated needs) data feed. As a reminder, among the key benefits to customers, Deustche Boerse, now the owner of NYSE Euronext were that i) Data is sent directly by our journalists from government lock-ups; ii) Designed for easy direct integration into trading algorithms; iii) Global co-location and other connectivity options iv) AlphaFlash uses the high speed global network of Deutsche Börse and was designed by technology experts from the world of low latency trading. And while Euronext has had about 3 market halts in Europe in the past week, that appears to be irrelevant: with reverse merger listing fees now a thing of the past, the Deustche Borse has to continue raking in high margin HFT clients with the promise of some free latency arbitrage. Therefore, in order to make its product offering that much more appealing to 19 year old Ph.D.'s everywhere, NYSE Boerse has just announced its purchase of Kingsbury International Ltd., which surveys managers for the Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the company that hosts the Chicago PMI data, in order to bring PMI data direct to feed subscribers. Net result: expect even more market volatility at each PMI release, now that the market is not two but three-tiered, and consisting of regular HFTs, HFTs with access to the Deutsche Boerse feed, and everyone else. Does this make capital markets any more efficient? Hell no. Does it benefit the willing participants in a rigged casino who are about to purchase a faster reaction time for one of the blackjack tables? But of course.

Back in April, Zero Hedge first exposed the impact on the repo market as a direct consequence of the then introduced FDIC assessment rate, which pushed general collateral rates to just above zero, and in some cases, outright negative. Since then GC repo rates have meandered well lower than the historical average, somewhere in line with the IOER, and the ongoing 20 bps arb available to banks who have the wherewithal to arbitrage the GC-IOER spread, indicates that not all is as it should be with the repo market. This was to be expected once the FDIC started messing around directly in the multi-trillion repo market. Well, courtesy of increasing tightness in European liquidity where contagion concerns have spooked money market participants, forcing them to enter the already thin GC market, rates have once again collapsed, and as Barclays' Joseph Abate points out, "Treasury collateral fell from around 6bp earlier this month to barely 1bp this morning. This means that every special issue – even those with only a modest premium in the repo market – trades at a negative rate." As a result, the GC and the special repo rate, together with participation in the ECB's MRO operation (update tomorrow) and Chinese SHIBOR, have now become the best indicators of what is truly happening in the liquidity underbelly of the multi-trillion unsecured market. Alas, this latest move has unpleasant implications for money market managers, who unable to find yield in repo (0.01%?) will now be forced to look for higher yielding assets, and thus expose them to even more contagion risk once the house of cards falls, facilitating the "breakage of the buck" once again just like what happened in the aftermath of the Lehman catastrophe, and snarling all global fund flows, forcing the Fed to become liquidity provider of last resort. But no need to worry about this: after all Bernanke's centrally planned economy would never let this happen.

As of 30 minutes ago, the ramp in stocks which came out of nowehere, on now news, but is certainly going to generate a whole lot of FRBNY trade tickets over at Citadel, has managed to do absolutely nothing to restore confidence in the average man that the economy is not heading into redepression, but been very successful at causing the risk spread to surge to day wides. Historically the spread has closed promptly on high correlation days, although today's market action is so abnormally surreal it may be best to just step back and observe.

The latest target of Operation Anonymous, which following the dissolution of LulzSec is the last substantial non-amorphous hacker collective left out there, could lead to some substantialgeopolitical fallout. That is because the target of the just announced upcoming DDOS attack is none other than the Israeli Parliament, the Knesset, and while Israel has allegedly been happy to dispense hack attacks in the past, the onslaught on the Iranian nuclear power plant courtesy of the Stuxnet virus coming to mind, we doubt it will as happy to be seen on the receiving end of decentralized computer warfare. Either way, with the world focusing on Greece tomorrow, this development, and specifically what form of retaliation Israel adopts, will be yet another important factor to keep track of over the next 24 hours.

Courtesy of recent disclosures, the common man (as in anyone who does not pay millions in kickbacks, er, soft dollar fees to GS) can now observe what is being traded on Goldman's Dark Pool, better known as Sigma X. Why is this important? Because as Themis Trading presented last week, only 30% of all trading occurs on open exchange venues, meaning the bulk of actual shares change ownership behind the scenes, in places such as Sigma X, Chi X, and the dark pools of Credit Suisse, Citi, and various other banks, not to mention numerous other secondary ATS, where very little if any of the daily trading detail is released for general observation. This means that while HFT algos drive up the volume of numerous top 10 stocks merely for the sake of collecting rebates, the real action is in the most actively traded dark pool names, where the big boys are actively trading risk, where HFTs are non-existent, and the companies that represent the top 5 is what investors, speculators, and vacuum tubes should be focusing on. Not surprisingly, today's most active names are Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo. Translation: someone is actively positioning for serious action in Italy shortly.

Following recent speculation originating from Bill Gross that Operation Twist would materialize possibly as soon as last week's FOMC statement and cap rates on 2-3 Year Bonds, the yield on the 3 Year had fallen to unprecedented low levels. Well, the FOMC came and went, and now everyone has to wait until this year's version of Jackson Hole for OT2 to come to market. However, many have decided not to wait. Namely foreign central banks: those who are somehow supposed to come in and buy up US debt when the Fed goes away. In the just completed 2 Year auction (CUSIP: RA0), which just priced at a record low yield of 0.395%, which was a nearly 1 bp tail, all the action was behind the headlines: the Bid To Cover tightened substantially from the 3.46 in May to 3.08 currently, but the kicker was the Indirect take down which at a paltry 22% came at the lowest since February 2008, or even before the Bear Stearns implosion, when central planning was merely a gleam in the central planning cartel's eye. As a result Primary Dealers were left holding the bag on this auction, with 64% of the total notional going to Dealer syndicate, and the balance or 13.5% going to Direct Bidders, also a big drop from the 19.2% in May. The problem for the Dealers is that there are no more 2 year focused POMO as part of QE3, so they will all be scrambling to sell the On The Run back to the Fed during the once a month 2 Year targeting POMO as part of the continuing QE Lite.