Archive - Jun 2011 - Story

George Soros, Chairman of Soros Fund Management and famous for breaking the Bank of England in 1992, has warned that "we are on the verge of an economic collapse which starts, let's say, in Greece but it could easily spread." The 80-year-old investor said that the “financial system remains extremely vulnerable." Soros added that "there are fundamental flaws that need to be corrected." The core flaw, says Soros, is that the euro is not backed by a political union or joint treasury, so when something goes wrong with a participating country, there is "no provision for correction." Soros said that it is "probably inevitable" that highly indebted countries will be given a way to quit the euro. Gold has been the strongest currency in the world in recent years and all major fiat currencies, including the Swiss franc, have fallen against it. Should Greece revert to drachmas, Ireland to punts, Spain to pesetas, Italy to lira and Portugal to escudos, these countries would suffer massive inflation and the price of gold would surge in terms of these local currencies.

Quiet day on the economic front where the US personal savings rate is expected to pick up following an increase in Personal Income and a small rise in Personal Spending. A few Fed speechs complete and otherwise boring day which sees the 4th to last QE2 POMO as Brian Sack monetizes $4-5 billion.

That Greeks are massively against being "bailed out" in a circular process whereby Europe's bankers rescue Europe's bankers, using Athens as an intermediary is no surprise. What is perhaps also not surprising is that German, or the citizens of the country to truly benefit the most from the "rescue" are also very much against this bailout. According to Goldman's Dirk Schumacher, a poll published in FAS newspaper this Sunday showed that a majority of the surveyed were against any further financial help. Back in May, a slim majority was still in favour of additional support for Greece. The poll also asked how the Euro's future would be assessed: some 71% voiced 'doubts' or 'no trust' or 'no future' for the Euro. Meanwhile, the discussion between the finance ministry and banks about a roll-over of maturing debt continues. The German finance ministry expects banks to make specific proposals during the course of the week. Finance minister Schäuble rejected again the idea of any financial incentives for banks to participate in a roll-over, arguing that banks would have a strong interest themselves to stabilise the situation. The finance minister also said that governments would take preparations for the case of a Greek default if the Greek parliament were to reject the new austerity package this week: "We need to make sure that the contagion risk for the financial system and other Euro-area countries remains low".

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With Greece set to dominate the news flow once again in the upcoming week, the question on everyone's mind is what would happen "if Greece says no", preferrably with some more nuance than just "the end of the world." So for everyone inquiring, here is SocGen's Michala Marcusen with a full timeline of the "what if" scenario.

Greece will remain the main focus of attention. As it stands at the moment, the Greek Parliament will begin to debate the medium-term fiscal plan and the implementation laws on Monday. Voting on the legislation will occur on Wednesday for the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy and Thursday for the implementation law. After the government won a vote of confidence, the assumption is that the required legislation will pass through parliament. However, reports that several PASOK members will potentially vote against the measures will likely add to the uncertainty ahead of the outcome of the parliamentary vote. On the assumption that Greece passes the required legislation, on July 3, the Eurogroup will authorise the disbursement of the fifth tranche of the current package, and on July 11, will unveil the new funding package for Greece. Again on the assumption that Greece passes the required legislation, the macro data will become front and center on Friday, given it is the first day of the month we will get the release of PMIs globally.

While it is not exactly clear what has caused the substantial sell off in the EURUSD over the past several hours, even with the explicit support of China of all insolvent European states, the news that the German constitutional court in Karlsruhe is about to commence hearing a lawsuit contesting the legality of the Greek bailout is certainly not helping the euro. As Athens News reports, "the suit was filed last July by a group of five Eurosceptics led by economist Joachim Starbatty. According to the plaintiffs, the financial help package for Greece runs contrary to article 125 of the EU Treaty - the so-called no-bailout clause - which does not allow the EU or a member state to undertake the responsibility of covering the debts of another member state." Explaining his lawsuit to Athens News, Starbatty said that "The German constitutional court will discuss the break of the no-bailout clause, the inflationary bias of purchasing government bonds by the European Central Bank, the danger of uncontrollable financial obligations and the rights of national parliaments of both debtor and creditor countries." And if there is one thing Germans are never happy to hear about, it is "inflationary bias" of any one thing.

With just days left until the crucial vote on passing the Greek mid-term austerity package, the assured destruction rhetoric used by the Greek status quo has hit fever pitch. Just to make sure the message is not lost on the broader population that Europe's banks will not admit defeat in a vote that could end the kleptocratic cartel's hegemony for ever, Greece's Deputy Prime Minister Theodoros Pangalos has blasted suggestions that it would be better for his country to abandon the euro and return to the drachma as an "immense stupidity". He didn't stop there. For dramatic impact, the Greek vice PM also said that the country would devolve into complete anarchy, with tanks roaming the streets, a population on the verge of civil war, with mass suicides, just for dramatic impact, should bankers not get their way. More or less in line with the Hank Paulson script that is regurgitated every few years when the Ponzi system is on the verge of imploding yet again.

We hadn't previously discussed the situation at the Fort Calhoun, Nebraska nuclear power plant, as there was still a possibility that it was containable, and the deterioration had been largely blown out of proportion. Alas now that the Missouri River flood waters have penetrated the last ditch water-filled wall, and have since surrounded the  containment buildings and other vital areas of a Nebraska nuclear plant, it may be time to get a little more concerned. As Reuters reports, "The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) said the breach in the 2,000-foot (600 meters) inflatable berm around the Fort Calhoun station occurred around 1:25 a.m. local time. More than 2 feet (60 cm) of water rushed in around containment buildings and electrical transformers at the 478-megawatt facility located 20 miles (30 km) north of Omaha." Naturally, the severity of the situation is being downplayed by the NRC, very much the way Tepco and Japanese authorities pretended the Fukushima situation was under control, until it was uncovered that there had been plant meltdown within hours of the tsunami: "Reactor shutdown cooling and spent-fuel pool cooling were unaffected, the NRC said. The plant, operated by the Omaha Public Power District, has been off line since April for refueling." That's one version of the story. A far better one would be calling up the Octogenarian of Omaha and upon getting voicemail, inquiring in what part of the world he is currently residing until the Fort Calhoun situation is actually fixed. To everyone else, we would merely suggest they copycat Buffet, especially after seeing the picture of the plant below (taken June 16, which means the situation now is far worse), which makes the flooding at Fukushima look tame by comparison.

As expected, China is the new IMF. No surprise there.

• CHINESE PREMIER WEN TELLS BBC WILL LEND TO EUROPEAN COUNTRIES HAVING TROUBLE BORROWING

All this means is that China will do everything in its power to prevent the ECB from launching an outright unsterilized monetization episode, which will double the amount of importable inflation (plunging EUR) to hit the Chinese domestic economy, and destabilize the already shaky stability, so critical for the Chinese communist party. And since the USD and the CNY are pegged, this has the added benefit of devaluaing the CNY instead even more if not against the USD, then against the CNY, which is now importing European sovereign risk and will continue to do so, until China finds itself in the same lock out as half of Europe currently.

A global public debt crisis, in which private sector deleveraging is offset by public debt, to the point where Reinhart and Rogoff say "no more" (and often times beyond) has only four possible outcomes. These are: 1) a debt trap; 2) hyperinflation; 3) austerity but in conjunction with actual economic growth and 4) default. Currently in the developed world, the only two outcomes actively pursued, are (1), the debt trap, best seen in the US, where the only solution to debt is "more debt", and half of (3), austerity, although not coupled by the critical "growth" component, but merely more strikes, more economic deterioration, and more austerity in a closed loop to the bottom as a disenchanted population decides to let it all burn down in the process of losing its entitlements safet net. And with 3) so far a failure in every iteration (the closest it is to an actual empirical outcome is in the UK, where it has so far produced nothing but stagflation), what happens next will be, as UBS' senior economic advisor George Magnus says, "or else."

Last week's dramatic decision by the US administration to strongarm the IEA into releasing strategic petroleum reserves (of which the US would account for 30 million barrels, or half of the total), is nothing but yet another example of the hobbled and incredibly short-sighted thinking that permeates every corner of the Obama administration. Because as the WSJ reports, "the move by the U.S. and its allies to release strategic reserves of oil could provide a much-needed shot in the arm for the U.S. economy, but risks inflicting lasting damage on the already tense relationship between oil producers and consumers." The move comes on the heels of the dramatic collapse in OPEC talks in Vienna two weeks ago when Saudi Arabia was effectively kicked out of the cartel, further confirmed by reports that the IEA consulted with Saudi (and China and India) in advance of its decision (more later). Additionally, "OPEC and the European Union are due to hold an energy summit in Vienna Monday that will be the first official meeting of producers and consumers since the IEA's move, and will provide a platform for OPEC members to express their disquiet over the stocks' release. However, OPEC's biggest player, Saudi Arabia, won't be present." Make that former player, in an organization now headed by the previously #2 producer, Iran (which just happens is not all that pro-US). The biggest threat, however, is that in direct retaliation against the IEA's cartel-like decision, which comes at the expense of the remaining OPEC countries, is that as Zero Hedge suspected, the next step will be a more than proportionate cut in crude production by OPEC: "Some analysts speculated that OPEC could respond to the IEA release by cutting output to offset the increased supply." What happens next is complete Nash equilibrium collapse, with a high possibility of a 1973-type OPEC oil embargo announcement in the immediate future.

The latest episode in the "we'll make it up as we go along" rescue of the Euro comes from France where as Le Figaro reports, a working group of French banks led by BNP Paribas has proposed, and been agreed to by the French Treasury, that maturing debt would be rolled over into a a 30 year maturity piece, accounting for 50% of the total existing debt, and another 20% would go into a "zero coupon" fund focused on high quality stocks. Also according to Le Figaro, borrowings under the proposed scheme would pay an interest equivalent to what Greek "public" interest is plus a variable interest rate "likely to be linked to an economic Greek indicator such as GDP" (which being negative for years will likely means lower interest than prevailing).

If man leaves scarcity behind, and thus the need for money, what about our earlier assertion that “Money…is essential to any society that we would call civil”? If society leaves money behind, won’t it thereby render society uncivil? Of course not. For when society succeeds in evolving beyond money, it will merely be doing what it did when it evolved beyond barter, only vastly more so. That is, society will increase its co-operative powers by orders of magnitude and thereby vastly increase its ability to civilize itself. No more “Getting and spending,” in other words, that “lay waste our powers.” Instead, we will be empowered to not only boldly go where no man has gone before but to become what no man has ever been before...When will this singular event take place and “cascading technological progress” begin? It will begin when the computing power of a typical laptop today surpasses that of “One Human Brain” – roughly 2030 which, ironically, is precisely when Keynes (getting virtually everything else wrong) predicted that “the economic problem” will be solved.

While the fact that over the past few quarters private payrolls have increased has been widely touted by the administration as an indication that the economic recovery has taken root (even if recent NFP numbers have been decidedly below consensus), the fact is that spin of NFP data looks solely at one part of the monthly change in payrolls data: the new payrolls one. Alas, as the 12 Month rolling average chart straight out of JOLTs below demonstrates a just as important, and far less spin-friendly, part of the equation is jobs "separations." The simple math is that the monthly change in payrolls, establishment or household survey aside, is simply equal to new hires less total separations. And it is the latter that is now at decade lows. Said otherwise, payrolls are only up because of the rate of firings is the lowest in the past ten years now that companies have virtually nobody left to fire. This also means that as far as wage negotiations are concerned, workers will have absolutely no leverage. Which can be seen on the second chart. While having picked up modestly in the past several months, the percentage of people voluntarily quitting their job is nearly half of where it has been during the past decade. It also appears to be once again plateauing, now that the jobless recession has double dipped again, and "New Jobs" postings are once again on the wane. The bottom line, the "employment gains" have not been due to increased hiring, but due to ever more desperate people no longer daring to leave whatever job security they may have (and willing to take pay cuts as a condition of keeping said jobs).