Archive - Jul 19, 2011 - Story

Another horrendous quarter for Bank of America. While the company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.33 which shockingly came at the "at the high end of the prior guidance on June 29, 2011 when the company said net income excluding mortgage items and other selected items would be between $0.28 and $0.33 per share" the truth is that of the $5.6 billion in adjusted pretax net income, $3.3 billion was the result of credit loss releases. In other words 59% of the firm's "adjusted EPS" came from an accounting treatment and the CFO's interpretation of improving credit trends. As for the balance: another $1.5 billion came from a write-down in Mortgage Servicing Rights or another accounting gimmick. So take away the reserve release and MSRs, and one gets an EPS number that is 86% lower than the disclosed or about $0.05. The problem is that on an andjusted basis, the EPS was ($0.90) or a loss of $12.6 billion pre tax, driven by the previously disclosed settlements and a surge in provisions for Rep and Warranty settlements to $14 billion. Keep in mind this number will be far, far higher when all the Countrywide litigation is said and done. After all, the firm itself said that  the "Estimated range of possible loss related to non-GSE representations and warranties exposure could be up to $5B over existing accruals at June 30, 2011. This estimate does not include reasonably possible litigation losses." So what about litigation losses? Well at $1.9 billion this was a huge surge from the $0.8 billion in Q1 and $0.6 billion Q4 2010. This number will also only go up as everyone and the kitchen sink sues Bank of America. And while one can play accounting games to paint the EPS tape, the cash that leaves the company is all too real: the firm's Common Equity Ratio plunged from 9.42% in Q1 to 9.09% in Q2, the lowest since Q2 2010, and the result was a plunge in the firm's (very much meaningless courtesy of Mark to Market being illegal - thank you FASB) Book Value per Share to $20.29: the lowest in well... ever since the firm's bailout by the US taxpayer.

Housing starts and permits for June. As usual, the key driver will be Europe-based headlines. There is a tiny POMO closing at 11 am.

Gold has fallen in most currencies today and is trading at USD 1,603, EUR 1,130, GBP 995 and CHF 1,315 per ounce. Gold is 0.3% higher in Swiss francs again today after the last two weeks of deepening turmoil saw gold rise in the Swiss franc. Many market participants are expecting a correction in gold at the psychological level of $1,600/oz. This is quite possible given corrections often take place after reaching record round number highs. Also, corrections tend to happen when there is a lot of noise in the press and media. Gold’s record high in all currencies is front page news in the Financial Times today which would make any contrarian nervous that the recent move is overdone. However, coverage remains very muted in much of the non specialist financial press – many of whom barely covered or did not even mention the new record gold highs. Gold at $1,603/oz is only 2.5% above the recent record nominal price seen on April 29th at $1,563.70/oz. Thus, gold has had a two month correction and consolidation prior to reaching the new nominal highs over $1,600/oz. Therefore, it is quite possible that gold targets the next psychological level of $1,700/oz, prior to any meaningful correction. Higher prices in euros and pounds are especially likely, prior to a correction. It is worth remembering that in the 1970’s gold bull market, gold had annual appreciation of some 30% per annum and had moves of over 73% in 1973 and 66% in 1974 (see table above). Gold only went parabolic in 1979 when it rose by over 140%.

Following last week's blatant secondary bond market intervention ahead of Italy's two auctions which even Willem Buiter predicted would need central bank intervention (ECB, but any would work), we were waiting to see if the ECB would announce an increase in its bond purchasing activity via the SMP for the week the passed. It did not. Which leaves just one culprit to explain the dramatic moves ahead of bond auctions (which naturally set the mood and allowed the primary issuance to proceed smoothly and not bring down the euro). China. And we venture to assume that it was China again who started buying bonds in the secondary market ahead of today's 4:30 am and 5:00 am issuance of €4.5 billion in 12 and 18 month bills and €1.25 billion in Greek 3 month bills, which resulted in the 10 year tightening -7bps to 1550; after it hit 1564bps earlier today, highest since at least 1998, while Italy's 10-yr yield over bunds tightened -22bps to 310bps vs yesterday’s 332bps, the highest since 1996. Yes this was before the auctions on no good news, and happened just as gold hit an all time high of just under $1610. Sure enough, following this sudden spike in buying interest, the auctions priced tremendously, and have resulted in a major shift in market sentiment in the past 3 hours, leading to a surge in Italian financial stocks, a jump in the EUR and thus a spike in futures.

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